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Premarket stock trading: The reality of catching up with stocks. But what followed was anyone’s guess
The question now is whether an unprecedented intervention by the central bank and other policy makers – with more potential assistance on the road – will be sufficient for stable risk assets, or if they will take other steps.
Some investors think stocks will still fall more given the highly uncertain outlook.
“Recent experience shows that it will become too arrogant because of a stock market decline of this magnitude, which finally seems to reflect some of the increasing weight of bad news in the global economy,” Robert Carnell of ING said in a note to clients Friday.
The sell-off was partly driven by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s statement that the US jobs market remained in a very weak position, and that the recovery would be largely determined by programs taken by the virus.
But Carnell noted that Powell really only said what everyone already knew: that the global economy was in a bad place, and that there would not be a quick rebound.
JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade, told me that trading optimism is bound to meet trading reality at some point, bringing the company’s valuation down.
“The reality is when you start to look at numbers, many of these businesses will not open fast enough for the market,” he said.
In recent weeks, the Federal Reserve’s massive expansion of the balance sheet has given investors confidence to cross back to risk assets. The support hasn’t gone anywhere, and Powell has assured market observers that the central bank will help as long as needed.
More fiscal assistance will also be available. US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Thursday that the White House was considering another round of stimulus checks, the Wall Street Journal reported.
But with VIX, a measure of S&P 500 volatility, surging above 40 on Thursday, the highest level since April, the direction of travel for stocks heading into a bleak next week.
“Some investors’ fingers will burn. But others will see this as a buying opportunity,” Carnell said. “After [Thursday’s] adjustments, nobody knows where the market will go. “
One or two blows from Coronavirus and Brexit threaten Britain
The UK is headed for the worst downturn caused by coronaviruses of all major economies. Now concerns are mounting that business could be hit by a second body blow this year – the failure of trade talks with the European Union, my CNN business partner Hanna Ziady reported.
Latest: The economic picture in this country is already terrible. British output shrank a record 20.4% in April compared to the previous month, the government said Friday. The country’s economy is around 25% smaller than in February.
But the situation could worsen further because the country is racing against the deadline to get a trade agreement with the European Union, its biggest single export market, by the end of the year.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said this week that it expects the British economy to shrink by 11.5% this year even if a basic free trade agreement with the European Union is reached, and a second wave of infections is avoided.
It was the worst projected contraction among the major economies. And if infections soar again and increasingly stringent social measures are reintroduced, GDP could drop 14%, the OECD said.
On Thursday, the head of the British Industrial Confederation, which represents 190,000 British companies, warned that businesses would not be able to withstand other shocks, with many already struggling to survive.
“The resilience of British business has really come down,” CBI director general Carolyn Fairbairn told the BBC. “Every penny of cash that has been saved, all of the prepared inventory has been used up.”
Corporate America’s calculation of the race gained momentum
Protests around the world against police brutality and systemic racism are pushing companies to make changes to company policy and leadership, with announcements from Silicon Valley to the retail sector and startup world that have accumulated throughout the week.
Some changes: Sephora said it would dedicate 15% of its shelf space to black-owned brands, while Walmart said it would end the practice of locking black hair care products sold in its stores. The Walgreens drugstore chain and CVS Health follow, AP reports.
Meanwhile, Audrey Gelman resigned Thursday as CEO of The Wing, a startup that works together for women. Members and workers have spoken in the past about racist incidents and persecution. Officials at the Refinery29 website and media giant Condé Nast also left this week following criticism of the company’s culture.
And Nike said on Thursday that it would make Juneteenth (June 19) – a celebration of the end of slavery in the United States – a company holiday, joining Twitter, Square and Vox Media.
But so far, Corporate America has avoided talking about police deforestation.
My CNN Business Partner Chauncey Alcorn reached out to a number of Fortune 500 companies that issued public statements supporting the Black Lives Matter movement in recent days, including Amazon, Facebook, Twitter, Bank of America, Chase Bank, Citigroup and Google. Nobody said they supported denudation of the police department.
Next
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for June arrives at 10 am ET.
Coming next week: A string of closely watched economic data for May, including retail and housing sales, begins in the United States.
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