Political and Economic Survival: Last Hope for Kink and Time – Neither 8 nor 80

In the previous column, I dealt with the theatricalization of dialectics, which stirred up the spirit of politics and economics in our country. Today I use a vector generated by the surrealism so widespread now: the need to survive.

I will try to explain this current rate observed in both areas, taking into account what may happen in the short term (this semester). After all, the contradictions that are now being revealed due to discourses and theories so different from those defended at the beginning of government may even guarantee some survival in this old electoral intention. But some unknown and uncertain remain in the air regarding the point of inflection in favor of the desired object and whether there will be enough time. The graphs and hourglass are already in the plateau and esplanade decision tables.

The dialectical process in politics consists in an unexpected bet on the once rejected “Centrão”. With the intention of providing a manageability that had not been achieved in two and a half years, the threat of political trauma that could result from the obstacle pushed the government towards this composition. Obviously, this political path will not only “save” the project from a re-election dispute, but also leave some hope for the failure of reform projects in Congress. The challenge now is to reverse political expectations (inflection point) for this “electoral clash anticipation”, while keeping in mind the relentless force of time (the hourglass is already turned).

And what is damn important in this strategy of political survival is that the possible challenges from Centrão constitute a team with a duration of 9 months. Obviously, they will leave their posts because of an individual and / or partisan desire to participate in a proportional or majority campaign. Achieving the desired effectiveness through this political bias will not be easy.

If a political summary, despite the conflicting discourses of the past, throws such a challenge to the “new” discourse and practice of all-or-nothing risk, from the economic point of view, the task is no less titanic. The stake is risky not only in technical modeling and political engineering, but also in favor of some kind of strategy that makes changes and “saves the homeland.” Without an adequate plan and without clear guidelines for various economic agents, maintaining certain trends and / or changing numbers are not such simple achievements that turn into benefits, given that the term of office in government is just over one year.

Changes in some indicators are not like the trend caught by those working or analyzing the markets, given the current semester. Despite signs of a recovery in GDP, expectations of a reversal in inflation (growth), interest (also growth) and unemployment (the last variable to be adjusted as the growth environment changes) are not encouraging. Shows that it is safe and stable). In turn, it is assumed that the exchange rate will remain at 5 reais per US dollar due to the internal situation and what is happening abroad.

Much of these problems still depend on political willingness to push reforms along two fronts (government and parliament). Good political engineering would reduce the kind of uncertainty that is in the air. However, controversial issues, corporate interests at stake, tight deadlines and a tough campaign environment are elements that indicate possible disagreements.

Finally, after being exposed to an unusual dialectic by focusing on the continuity of 2022, the contradictions and challenges that politics and economics value today become ruthless and imperative.

You really need to keep track of the numbers. And in an inverted hourglass.

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