Faced with soaring energy prices, Pedro Braz Teixeira believes the best solution, instead of limiting imports, is for the EU to impose a tax on Russian imports, while “we continued to import the same amount of oil, but Russia got half of what he gets today” .
The new energy challenges were one of the topics of the debate organized by the Competitiveness Forum, moderated by Luis Mira Amaral. Jorge Mendonça y Costa, Executive Director of the Portuguese Association of Large Industrial Electricity Users, Ricardo Nunez, President of the Energy Traders Association, Pedro Sampaio Nunez, Former Secretary of State for Science and Innovation, and Pedro Neves Ferreira, Managing Director of Energy from EDP as speakers .
We are facing new energy challenges, but we are already seeing skyrocketing prices, especially with regard to fuel prices…
There is an important structure: we are facing the first energy crisis of decarbonization, which makes it especially difficult because it is an energy crisis in which we are trying to change the consumption pattern of the type of energy very quickly and perhaps we are trying to change too quickly. While everyone agrees on the need for decarbonization, the pace at which it is being planned does not seem very compatible with the technologies currently available because renewables have not gained much weight in recent decades and we are still very dependent on away from fossil fuels and wants a very fast transition. Even 2050 seems a little unrealistic.
And we’re already paying…
This energy crisis that we are experiencing began last spring, when there were a number of factors in the energy market that dictated these changes. The recovery of the economy along with the energy transition eventually made this worse, and for years we’ve been talking about decarburization, and it’s holding back investment in ancient fossil energy sources. I’m not going to explore new wells if I already know that I can’t sell them later.
So that led to a lot. This lack of planning results in us not having new energy because it takes a long time and we also don’t have old energy because we say the old has no future and therefore there is no investment in the old. . And at the same time, there is not enough energy on both sides, and when there is not enough energy, the price rises.
And now stakes like nuclear power and coal are back on the table…
The desire to go too fast repels us, but we cannot forget the problem of war. In fact, not only war, but also sanctions, because sanctions punish more than war. I am sincerely concerned about the sanctions. In this sixth round of sanctions, the EU wants to cut oil imports to Russia by 90% by the end of the year.
And this is not enough time.
This is a huge amount of energy, and reaching this goal by the end of the year is unrealistic. It is very likely that we will have, especially with the approach of winter – when more energy is spent in Europe, namely for heating – a new increase in energy prices. By the way, this week we have new data and Russia is already cutting off gas supplies to Europe, which makes it clear that Europe will not be able to replenish its strategic gas reserves to weather the winter.
What I think will be on the table is that Russia is planning to take Europe to start the winter with a rope at its throat, with no reserves and no wiggle room, because it’s “plate won, plate worn out.” and Russia can cut off the gas supply at any time.
No plan B?
Oil and coal are two commodities that are easy to transport from one place to another. Of course, this is not the most practical solution, but we could import coal from Australia because it is physically possible. Now there is no gas, we need pipelines and liquefied gas, unlike oil, where no infrastructure needs to be built.
António Costa Silva has already proposed Sines as an alternative to gas.
Yes, but then there is no pipeline connection beyond the Pyrenees. This is a project that makes sense in the medium term but does not have an immediate response. I’m afraid that this winter we will have another surge in energy prices, then new pressure to raise interest rates, and soon we will have an economic slowdown. In fact, this week the chairman of the US Federal Reserve warned that there are factors beyond his control and that we could be in for inflationary surprises. Inflation is out of control and I see a very clear risk.
Is that why the Competitiveness Forum was more pessimistic than the government in terms of economic forecasts?
Because we are very concerned about the new increase in inflation.
Are we in danger of facing another crisis?
I would single out two aspects: on the one hand, the pandemic has brought an extraordinary innovation from the EU, in which they have finally managed to create a European responsibility, unlike what happened during the whole euro crisis, when they do not want to talk about it. And with the pandemic, European bonds were issued and this completely blocked path opened up. And if it was opened to help fight the pandemic, then it could also be opened to solve other European problems. Here we have a big advantage. In addition, we must be alert and be able to act very quickly. The euro crisis began in 2009 with the Greek elections, during which they revealed the whole financial situation, in which, after all, the Greek deficit was three or four times what they announced.
What happened? Greece fell in May 2010, followed by Ireland and Portugal. It wasn’t until July 2012, after three rescues from three countries, that Mario Draghi started talking about the problem. Now the ECB got together, determined what the rate hike would be, and 10 days later the markets went crazy, leading the ECB to an emergency meeting and showing it was preparing a mechanism to be announced in July to prevent fragmentation. debt market, that is, to help Italy’s debt. Therefore, only after the announcement of this, the markets calmed down. This means that they are very attentive.
But, as a rule, exchanges react to problems in advance.
In the case of the markets, everything follows the American stock market. And the American stock market entered the so-called bear market, that is, where the bear hibernates and becomes negative. And when the market drops 20% from the previous high, that means you will enter a bear market, which is usually a very negative outlook. The US stock market, having infected everyone else, is negative about the outlook for the US economy, although here we must recall what Nobel laureate Paul Samuelson said: Stock markets have predicted nine of the last five recessions. .
Even now, BdP is forecasting growth of 6.3% this year and inflation of up to 5.9%. But after that, Mario Centeno said that he could not rule out the risk of a financial crisis…
Risk must be faced even as a risk, that is, it is not a certainty. Of course, it was possible to finally reach a peace agreement in Ukraine, but there is a risk that the situation will worsen. And when we talk about the financial crisis, it has more to do with the increase in interest rates in the eurozone, and Portugal will inevitably suffer, and with it there may be unrest. But I’m not so worried about the financial crisis, I’m more concerned about the energy issue, because the EU is stuck in this system of wanting to cut Russian imports by 90% by the end of the year.
Sanctions should hurt those who are subject to sanctions, not those who apply them. What is happening is that it will hurt us, and oil prices before the war were $60, and now $120, so Russia sells less, but sells twice as much. In other words, no more bills. There was a proposal that the EU, instead of restricting imports, introduce a tax on Russian imports. It so happened that we continued to import the same amount of oil, but Russia received half of what it receives today.
Was it some kind of emergency tax?
It was a tax on oil exports. For example, Russia sells to India at a 25% discount, it’s like a tax. In other words, he sells to others at huge discounts.
This increase in energy costs is putting a burden on companies…
If this extraordinary tax were introduced, it would represent an extraordinary income for the entire treasury of all European countries. And at the same time, the margin for helping companies and families will be much larger. We see the opposite: we are paying with oil, half of which was state income.
And in the face of this increase in costs for companies, how do you feel about António Costa’s call for a 20% increase in wages for private workers?
This is an increase over five years and I divide this 20% over all the years it is not so significant, and in this year 2022 with inflation at such a level that 20% is the accumulated inflation over all these years.
The Competitiveness Forum was one of the first organizations to transition to the Recovery and Sustainability Plan payment deferral. How do you feel about Antonio Costa’s statements that “skepticism must be overcome”?
Portugal has been receiving European funds since 1981, so we have been receiving European funds for 41 years and we have had a stagnant economy for 20 years. I think it’s fair to think that we’re misusing European funds. And for at least 20 years we misused European funds, because when we received European funds, we had an obligation to move closer to Europe and not lose ground.
Over the past 20 years, we have misused European funds, and I apologize for this history of misuse of European funds and for the fact that PRR does not have a strategy based on economic growth, and therefore skeptical about the possibilities of PRR.
This is in line with what he was already defending when he said that “in recent decades everything has gone wrong in economic policy”…
It is not normal to use European funds. Portugal, even without European funds, was obliged to move closer to the European Union, because we are in a privileged space, we have the same currency, we have the same rules and we have the example of other countries. And even without European funds, we must move closer to Europe, and even with European funds we cannot do this.
Is income always the same regardless of the government?
Undoubtedly.
