One of the coordinators of the Axis of Political Strategy, political scientist António Fernández emphasizes that the low performance of the platforms and allies associated with President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) in the states is due to several factors: the lack of strategy in the 2020 elections, the way the president has dealt with the covid pandemic -19 and the economic agenda. The reflection was felt in the Senate candidates of former ministers Bolsonaro, Damáres Alves (Republicans) in the Federal District, Gilson Machado (PL) in Pernambuco and Rogerio Marinho in Rio Grande do Norte. None of them top the polls.

States have examples such as former minister Joao Roma (PL) in Bahia, who is not even considered in the second round, and Onyx Lorenzoni (PL), who, in addition to not leading in Rio Grande do Sul, has split from former governor Eduardo Leite (PSDB). “Never before has a president challenged re-election after ’88 with such a high rejection rate,” the analyst says.

Watch the interview he gave Congress in focus:

Do you think the poor performance of the president’s allies in the state elections is due to Bolsonaro’s apparent lack of strategy in the 2020 elections?
These are different situations. In 2020, the pandemic was the main campaign agenda, and we saw voters choose more traditional names that could solve problems. The experience of public life again generated positive moments, and in 2018 and 2016. outsider was a candidate at the moment. Bolsonaro is still in 2018, an election with very different characteristics from the traditional ones.

So what did the president miss?
He [Bolsonaro] seemed to forget that all state (government and Senate) election planning involves municipal forces, support bases for state and federal deputies that are linked to mayors, councilors and local leaders. This is one of the factors to choose now, crosslinked from 2020, among a wide range of important variables. And in this aspect, it was obvious that the president’s lack of strategy in the municipal elections prevented the construction of competitive local platforms for candidates from his political spectrum in these elections.

Did Bolsonaro’s handling of the pandemic contribute to this failure?
The president’s bad behavior during the pandemic has been constant. Of the 13 executive candidates he supported in 2020, only two were elected, and in smaller towns. Support in 2020 has been scattered across some applications, with no real mobilization. In such an election, unlike the atypical scenario that was the 2018 election, support, platforms, TV and radio time, and campaign resources matter much more.

Aside from the poor performance in the 2020 municipal elections, what prompted Bolsonaro to record low electoral performance in this dispute?
The government’s countless absurdities during the pandemic have had a more lasting impact on the electorate, remaining part of the voter’s memory when they think of the president. Bolsonaro’s refusal (LP) starts to increase from the beginning of 2021 and reaches over 50% at the end of August without declining further. This rejection is greater among women who no longer approve of their actions during the pandemic with “imbrochável” refrains and other sexist and disrespectful behavior. Along with this, we have an economic problem, people are starving, and the amount of aid is not enough to buy a basic food basket in many capitals. Fuel deflation is hitting the middle class hardest, and we’re still in a situation where food prices remain high. The increase in the number of Auxílio Brasil or other measures taken by Bolsonaro in relation to this part of the electorate did not have the expected effect. He argues with those whom the electorate most often recognizes as the “father” of this social policy. Who do voters trust most to keep these programs going? The question of a date before December greatly spoiled the positive effect expected by the presidential campaign, in addition to electoral proximity, which does not hide the reasons for the movement from the voter. Never before has a president run for re-election since 1988 with such a sharp rejection.

Where are the President’s allies doing best?
In Rio de Janeiro, where the president has made his political career and is his electoral core, despite being associated with Lula, he has more power than São Paulo, Tarcisio de Freitas (Republicans). Other state contests, in which the candidate he supports are in the lead, keep some distance from the presidential race. They are candidates for re-election, like Ratinho Jr. (PSD) in Parana and Gladson Cameli (PP) in Acre. In Santa Catarina, the president is supported by Carlos Moises (Republicans), Jorginho Melo (PL) and Espiridian Amin (PP). And in Rio Grande do Sul, Onyx Lorenzoni (PL) faced Eduardo Leite (PSDB) in a dispute.

As for the Senate, are the President’s allies doing better?
In the Senate, those who lead the polls more easily are names more PT-related such as Camilo Santana (PT) in Ceara, Wellington Diaz (PT) in Piauí, Teresa Leitao (PT) in Pernambuco, Marcio França (PSB) in São Paulo, Renan Filho (MDB) in Alagoas and Flávio Dino (PSB) in Maranhão. Cleitinho Azevedo (PSC) in Minas Gerais, Magno Malta (PL) in Espirito Santo, Wellington Fagundes (PL) in Mato Grosso and Tereza Cristina (PP) in Mato Grosso do Sul are the candidates closest to Bolsonaro, who are doing well, especially the ex-minister of agriculture and senatorial candidate from Mato Grosso, who is seeking re-election. In proportional elections, the expectation of a good result is higher, given the orientation of the parties of the presidential base to the bench in the chamber.

Other candidates who have stuck to Bolsonaro in government – such as Gilson Macho and Damares Alves (former ministers) – have failed to take off in the campaign. Lack of strategy?
There are several factors that ultimately influence. In the case of Gilson Machado (PL), for example, he is competing in Pernambuco, a state closely linked to former President Lula (PT), where Bolsonaro has about 20% of the vote in the latest polls. In other words, simply deceiving Bolsonaro is not enough. Damares (Republicans) competes with Flavia Arruda (PL), who represent the same political field, both from the first echelon of the Bolsonaro (PL) government. Damares (Republicans) is ideologically closer to the president, but he officially supports Flavia Arruda (PL), who has much more influence and connections with DF voters since she was elected as a federal deputy in 2018. Murão (Republicans) in Rio Grande do Sul Sul contest the far right of the Gaucho electorate with Ana Amelia Lemos (SDP), better known to the electorate. The winner is Olivio Dutra (Portugal), who leads the race for a seat in the State Senate.