Cradle of Jair Bolsonaro’s formation, the military forms an important part of the political base of the President of the Republic. The trend in elections next year is that the former captain will continue to work with the support of the military. However, some of the uniforms are looking for alternatives in response to the president’s rapprochement with Centrão, a bloc that has previously criticized itself. If in 2018 the militarist militarists chanted: “If you shout, get Centrão, there will be no one left, my brother,” then in 2021 the president closed ranks with the PL Waldemar Costa Neto, who was convicted in a monthly case.
Part of the military, disenchanted with Bolsonaro, is inclined to support a former employee of the president: former Minister of Justice Sergio Moro (Podemos). Another, smaller group can still vote for former President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva (PT). To avoid electoral bloodshed, Bolsonaro was committed to maintaining a commitment to low-ranking uniforms in addition to the military and federal police. The wage adjustment included in the 2022 budget, which has angered several categories of civil servants, is part of this movement.
For Pocketnarists, however, these fluctuations do not change the overall picture. Federal Deputy Captain Augusto (PL-RS) estimates military support continues to be the majority for the president. “The military identifies too much with the president, this is not news. More than 30 years of his public life have passed. Bolsonaro will again receive full support. I do not believe that the military will stop voting for Bolsonara to vote for Moro, ”he said. He says.
“I see that internally, in the barracks, people have a great admiration for Moro during the period when he was leading Lava Yato. But then I think that people will stop voting for Bolsonara to vote for Moro, it took a long time. For re-election, Bolsonaro will continue to count on the full support of the military, not only the Armed Forces, but also the country’s military police and firefighters, ”the congressman said.
The interlocutors of the Ministry of Defense heard mailto restrainedly point out that there is still no sustainable alternative to the third way. “Bolsonaro seems stupid, but he is a great strategist. More and more military personnel will be involved in politics. We are not talking about the wear and tear of this institution, ”one official describes.
According to Raquel Borsoi, political risk analyst at Dharma Politics, it is impossible to determine exactly how the military will behave in 2022. “We can think of members of the military who are well involved in the world of politics and who are likely to remain on the side of the president, as in the case of Defense Minister Walter Braga Netto. But this is not an accurate portrait of the entire group, as if it were homogeneous, ”he says.
politicization
She cites, for example, General Santos Cruz joining Sergio Moro. “This contradicts the misconception that the Armed Forces generally support Bolsonara. Santos Cruz will be a mediator between Moro and a part of the sector, which, like him, is somewhat disappointed with Bolsonaro, ”says Borsoy. “It is important to remember that the left-wing candidates have also established dialogue with the Forces such as Lula and Chiro, which confirms the fact that they have become important actors in the political process,” he notes.
Political analyst Cristiano Noronha of Arko Advice also considers Bolsonaro’s strong ties with the military, but he does not see politicization in the barracks. “It’s one thing for people who hold positions in government as elected by the president; another thing is for the Armed Forces to be used politically, which, I think, is not happening. institution, “Noronya said.” They allegedly did not participate in hostilities or did not provide political support to the president. In fact, they are widely involved, but this does not mean more politicization of the institution as a whole, “he adds.
He is also betting on a failure in the elections, but does not believe in a weakening of votes in the presidential candidacy. “Part (of the military) should join the Moro campaign, but the majority adhere to Bolsonaro. The tendency is that, regardless of the election results, the Force maintains institutional behavior. This means respecting the poll results without any kind of problem or situation contrary to what is manifested in the ballot boxes, ”emphasizes Noronya.
According to sociologist and political analyst Pedro Celio Borges, Bolsonaro’s behavior in recent years has damaged the Armed Forces. “For a long time, until September 7 this year, Bolsonaro attacked the democratic order and tried to subordinate the Armed Forces to dictatorship,” he says. “However, he tried to do this using the most determined and important members, rather than the military as an institution. This participation was not helpful and made the military feel uncomfortable, ”he says.
According to Borges, the uniform is divided into support and erosion of the president’s image inside the barracks. “Bolsonaro still enjoys a lot of support in the military, but it is neither unlimited nor absolute as it used to be. The voices of dissidents will start to appear, ”he emphasizes.
Attending celebrations
In addition to the fact that he has several military personnel, Bolsonaro often expresses gratitude for the corporation in which he served for 15 years. According to a Correio study, Bolsonaro attended 43 military ceremonies this year. He increased attendance in August (nine members) and November (eight). In December through December 17, Bolsonaro attended five ceremonies.
The addiction to the army arises even in free time. For the third time, Bolsonaro will host celebrations at the end of the year at a military base. He and his family will be staying at Forte Marechal Luz, located in Praia do Forte, Santa Catarina.
The agenda clearly shows the President’s preference and commitment to the military for the COVID-19 pandemic.
On December 11, during the Naval Guard Declaration ceremony, which trained 197 aspirants to join the armed forces, he said that with his government, the Armed Forces “have returned to the national arena.” “The armed forces, which were recently forgotten, are now returning to the national arena. Our work is gaining more and more recognition throughout the country, ”he said on that day.
Another gesture of the president in favor of the military was the adjustment of the police’s career. According to a proposal approved by Congress, the reorganization will cost the government coffers R $ 2.8 billion in the first year alone.
The chief executive stressed that restructuring is a way to “correct injustice” and that the police force must be valued. The changes will include officers from the Federal Police (PF), Federal Highway Police (PRF) and the National Department of the Execution of Sentences (Depen) and will take effect from 2022.
How do you see the unification of the Armed Forces in politics? Is there institutional wear and tear?
The military as an institution should not interfere in politics. They are not an instrument of the political game, as Bolsonaro wanted. The culture of the Armed Forces is very strong and has nothing to do with politics. There is no wear and tear, as the Armed Forces as an institution is completely outside of politics. Those exposed do not represent the Force.
Why?
The fact of having a title, a patent, is associated with a person’s name. It can give such an institutional perception. But the military has no side. The military is one thing, the voter and the citizen. But institutionally, he does not accept either side. There is no chance or shock for a B or C candidate.
Will Moreau be strong among the military?
I cannot speak on behalf of the military as I have no connection with the army. But for our electorate, this is a normal tendency to vote for a balanced person. Bolsonaro’s frustration is common to his electorate as a whole.
What happened?
He betrayed the whole country, voters, his speech. He said he was against re-election, talked about fighting corruption because Lava-Jato is on the rise. In the end, it didn’t work. He promised to end the takeover, the old policy, but he never said what the new policy would be.
How do you see Bolsonaro’s approach to Centrão and its connection to PL?
This is a contradiction to what he said, a violation of his word. Centrão is not a political party; it is a group of people who have only personal interests. Of course, some parties are more confused by this, but in practice they are just people defending their interests at any cost.
What flags would you like to take with you to Congress if elected?
I am still undefined [para qual cargo]because I’m going to talk to Podemos about the party plan, I’m not in charge. My first political goal is that we no longer elect Bolsonara or Lula because they already had the opportunity.
