Talk about politics in the state is everywhere in full swing. Lessons, parallels with other points, whether the election of the governor will be decided in the first round, what happens in the race for the Senate, how many state deputies will be re-elected and so on.

Gubernatorial elections are, of course, in the spotlight. In general, a candidate elected to the post of governor has a strong vote for second place in the state. This is evidenced by Electoral Justice data from 1982 upon the return of direct gubernatorial elections.

Julio Campos defeated Father Pombo 51% to 48%. The next year, in 1986, Carlos Bezerra had 65% against 29% for Frederico Campos. In 1990 Jaime Campos scored 67% against Agripino Bonilla’s 14%.

In the next election, Dante de Oliveira defeated Oswaldo Sobrinho by 71% to 26%. In 1998, a bit harder, but with a first-round vote, Dante beats Julio Campos 51% to 38%. In 2002 Blairo Maggi with 51% and Antero de Barros with 30%. Blairo was re-elected in 2006 with 65% of the vote to Antero’s 20%.

Silval Barbosa had 51% in 2010 against 32% for Mauro Mendez. Pedro Takes won 57% of the vote in 2014 and Ludio Cabra 32%. In the last election, Mauro Mendes won 58%, Wellington Fagundes 19.56% and Pedro Takes 19%.

The most violent of all was the one in 1982. The rest, in face-to-face competitions between the two strongest names, have a noticeable difference between the candidates.

Now, in this election, with four candidates running for the government, the majority believes that the election should be decided in the first round, and in almost all conversations, the incumbent governor will be the favorite. A percentage of that difference compared to second place is that it’s part of the conversation about that topic.

During the conversation, an agreement was reached that elections to the Senate should be tougher than to the government. Soon Natasha Shesarenko withdraws her candidacy. Now we have Neri Geler’s case at TSE. Even if it goes to court, it is already competing with a huge handicap in finding votes.

The goalkeeper and the politician should be lucky, and that seems to be the case with Wellington in this election. Lula’s campaign is losing important support in the agricultural sector. Are the leftists in the state left without a proper name for the government and the Senate?

Various comments also exist regarding the election of a federal deputy to the YBR. They are fighting for two places: Carlos Bezerra, Juarez Costa, Emanuelzinho and Valtenier Pereira. It is generally accepted that Bezerra made a mistake by allowing Emanuelzinho to go to the party. You can take his place.

Juarez Costa should get the most votes and Cuiaba Mayor Emanuel Pinheiro will throw all the chips at his son. And he is still indirectly helped by his mother’s candidacy for the government.

If Bezerra loses, Emanuel can take over the game. Was Emanuelzinho’s trip to MDB organized with that intent?

Alfredo da Mota Menezes is a political analyst.