Are we already in the midst of a political crisis?
State budget for 2022 voted overall on Wednesday in parliament… It is safe to say that this will not be possible as the BE and PCP have already voted against. PS abstained only from PAN and two unregistered MPs, Joacin Qatar Moreira and Cristina Rodriguez. Both Jeronimo de Sousa Like Katharina Martins, they voted very hard against, seemingly leaving them no room to change their position until OE voting day in general on Wednesday.
The president of the republic has already announced that he is ready for the scenario of the leadership of the OE and the dissolution of parliament, but without the need for the resignation of the prime minister. On Sunday, margin Marcelo refused a scenario in which the chief executive, in the twelfth, appears in two different scenarios: one in which the Assembly of the Republic is dissolved, the second, which the President of the Republic will unleash, relying on OE2022 (his beloved), the other is about the resignation of the government after the fall budget, “which, according to the president, has exacerbated the critical situation.”
What does it mean to call early elections?
As Marcelo already had the opportunity to say this Monday“If it is not possible at all” to approve the OE, it “will begin shortly, shortly after the process”, primarily after consultation with the President of the Assembly of the Republic, the Prime Minister, political parties. with a seat in parliament and in the Council of State (mandatory steps in accordance with the Constitution).
When, then, can there be early elections?
If OE fails on Wednesday, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa from Thursday you can call Belen the entities that should be listening, and these auditions could last, in no time, until the end of next week. You can sign and publish a decree dissolving the president at the end of next week – let’s say Friday.
How long does it take between the announcement of the dissolution of parliament and the day of visiting polling stations?
A Law on Elections to the Assembly of the Republic Article 19 states that the President of the Republic “shall set the date for the election of deputies to the Assembly of the Republic at least 60 days in advance, or, in the event of dissolution, at least 55 days in advance”. Let’s start counting from the day when the crisis occurs, but when the presidential decree on the dissolution of the Assembly will be published. Thus, the elections can be held from December 30, in other words, the most natural thing is that they were in early January.
This is the most concise scenario, which means most likely this month as, by the way, Marcelo already admitted a few weeks ago: “If the OEs failed, the government could hardly continue to govern with this year’s OE, divided by twelve, and without European funds. So, most likely, these were elections, which means that there are 55 days between the announcement and the elections, ”he concluded, postponing early elections“ until January, ”because there will be no elections on holidays. And “that meant the government in February and the new budget in April.”
They exist recent precedents for early elections?
Yes, there have been three cases in the last 20 years. In 2001, then Prime Minister António Guterres resigned after a poor performance in local government, which resulted in legislative elections being postponed by two years from the regular calendar. In 2004, the then president of the republic dissolved parliament after seven months of the rule of Pedro Santana López, which also necessitated early elections. In 2011, then Prime Minister Jose Socrates resigned following a request for financial assistance from troikabut, unlike the two previous cases, he re-applied for this position.
How was it in previous cases of early elections?
Antonio Guterres resigned on December 16, 2001, and elections were held on March 17 of the following year. Jorge Sampaio announced that he wants to dissolve Parliament was on November 30, 2004, and elections took place only on February 20, 2005, that is, also almost three months later. In the case of Socrates, the process went a little faster. Prime Minister resigns March 23, 2011 and Kawako Silva set elections for June 5th.
