The political spectrum of governments in Latin America has changed since 2018 with the election of progressive or leftist presidents in countries such as Mexico, Argentina, Bolivia, Peru, Honduras, Chile and Colombia, and in October it will be Brazil’s turn to move to the ballot with a presidential election. . The fact that this shift to the left promotes greater integration among the peoples of this region is frowned upon by researchers and specialists in Latin America.

“New Cycle [à esquerda] yet to be tested. At the moment, it looks more like an ideological coincidence of a change of power, related to the context of each country, than a structural change. And the coincidence may be brief: for example, even if Lula da Silva wins the presidential election in Brazil, everything indicates that the right could win in Argentina in 2023,” said Lusa, a researcher and professor at the Autonomous University of Lisbon (UAL). .) Filipe Vasconcelos Romao.

For Vasconcelos Romao, there is no effective Latin American integration project, “there is a fragmentation of organizations, and MERCOSUR can be singled out [Mercado Comum do Sul] as the one that managed to go further – a customs union with major flaws and subject to the mood of the governments of Brazil and Argentina.

Professor UAL also mentioned that “the mechanisms of cooperation created (like Mercosur himself) are clearly subject to the ideological attitudes of every moment.”

“Given these precedents, it should be expected that if a number of leftist governments coincide in the region, formal and informal platforms for dialogue will again be stimulated. However, they can be just as fragile as the previous ones,” the professor believes.

“Latin American countries do not have complementary economies, they all sell to China”

Andrés Malamud, a researcher at the Institute of Social Sciences of the University of Lisbon (ICS-UL), goes further, stating that “regional unions or organizations such as MERCOSUR will not be strengthened, not only because politics does not help, but also because the economy does not helps.”

“Latin American countries do not have complementary economies, they all sell to China. In South America, others sell in the US. They do not buy and sell among themselves, there is no incentive to create large markets,” said Malamud.

According to an ICS-UL researcher, “there may be more collaboration, dialogue, group photos and headlines, but integration in Latin America will not move forward just because governments are largely leftist.”

“At the domestic level, within each country, governments on the left distribute more than those on the right. Outwardly, Latin America will not look like the European Union (EU), there will be no common market, no Schengen area, no single currency like the euro,” Malamud stressed.

waiting for brazil

Cristiano Pinheiro de Paula Couto, a researcher at the Institute of Modern History at the University of Nova de Lisboa, believes, given the polls that point to a Lula da Silva victory in Brazil, “there is a consolidation of a large arc of alliances in the regional scenario on the horizon. “and the left’s return to Brazil “could make a decisive contribution to building a very cohesive power bloc politically.”

“Another result [nas presidenciais brasileiras]however, it can undermine regional integration”, due to the great weight of Brazil in the region, emphasized Cristiano Pinheiro de Paula Couto.

“If the hegemony of progressive governments in Latin America is repeated with more or less intensity, as in the first decade of the 21st century, we will have, without prejudice to relations with countries outside the subcontinent, the guaranteed strengthening of MERCOSUR and the activation or revival of other regional integration initiatives” , said the researcher.

A researcher from Universidade Nova de Lisboa stressed, however, that Latin American countries will face serious economic challenges in the face of the “hostile and uncertain international context” that the world is experiencing today.

Symbols of Colombia

Scholars highlight the symbolism of former guerrilla Gustavo Petro’s victory in Colombia’s presidential election, becoming the country’s first left-wing president, but emphasize that he will have to face obstacles from the opposition.

The 62-year-old economist, who was a partisan for the defunct M-19 group, was elected last June with 50.47 percent of the vote in Colombia’s runoff election and will succeed outgoing President Ivan Duque from August. …for a period of four years.

“Symbolically, the change is very strong. Never in the history of Colombia has there been a left-wing president who came from the extreme left, and now from the democratic left,” said Andrés Malamud.

Andrés Malamud was more positive about the current state of the Colombian economy than about the political scenario, warning that the lack of more political support in parliament – as in several left-wing governments in Latin America – could be a problem and an obstacle for Petro.

“President of Colombia (Gustavo) Petro has already managed to form a coalition, but nevertheless, this is a coalition, and not just support for his party,” Malamud said.

“An unprecedented historical fact”

For researcher Cristiano Pinheiro de Paula Couto, the election of Petro and Vice President Francia Márquez “is an unprecedented historical fact, inscribed in the context of the ‘new pink wave’, the resurgence in the last two years of progressive governments in Latin America”.

“Petro is the country’s first left-wing president, but his victory in the second round followed a strong polarization scenario,” Coutu said.

“Despite his low-key speech and unequivocal affiliation with the Colombian political ‘establishment’, Petro defends a particularly left-wing platform that has benefited from a government program aimed at changing the economic model to promote social equality.” .

He also proposed a tax reform “designed to introduce a progressive logic in tax collection, which means reducing taxation for the poorest and increasing taxation for the richest,” Couto said.

For a researcher at the Institute of Modern History of the University of Nova de Lisbon, Petro and the President of Chile, Gabriel Borich [ex-líder estudantil de esquerda]”represent a significant change in the power structure of Latin America”, but one should not neglect the reactionary power of the right, namely in Chile and Colombia, the reaction of “the ruling classes, more interested in links with supranational capitalism” than with the countries themselves.

“Democracy is fragile, it involves ongoing conflict. Today progress can be made, but tomorrow a counter-coup could set everything back,” he warned.

“In Colombia, Gustavo Petro showed moderation in preparing his government, which could dictate a path different from that of Chile, more radical. Peter’s pragmatism may lead to some structural changes, especially in terms of consolidating the peace process. [com os grupos guerrilheiros que ainda existem no país] and the fight against inequality,” says Filipe Vasconcelos Romao, for his part.