The economic growth of countries always depends on the availability and use of productive resources: land, capital and labor. The productive factor of labor is the active population, which is measured not only by quantitative indicators (from 16 to 89 years old), but also by qualitative indicators (education, vocational training, specialization).
In 2021, the active population of the country was 5.15 million people, and over the past 20 years, Portugal has lost about 260 thousand able-bodied people. In terms of qualifications, the situation has improved significantly. 20 years ago, 70% of the active population had a basic education, 12% a secondary education, and 10% a tertiary education.
Currently, 35% of the country’s active population has a basic education, 31% a secondary education, and 34% a tertiary education. Two decades later, there were fewer people in the active population, but more qualified in terms of human capital. The demographic evolution of the active population depends on four factors: the number of live births, deaths, immigration and emigration.
Portugal has a long-term structural feature in its natural increase (live births minus deaths). According to data available on Pordata, the country lost 285,000 people between 2008 and 2021 (about 20,000 per year). But the natural population decline can be offset by migration flows (immigration minus emigration).
However, during the same period, the country’s migration balance was only 9,700 people. That is, between 2008 and 2021, Portugal lost an average of about 2 people per thousand inhabitants annually (this is the effective population growth rate). Natural increase is a structural demographic trend that can be reversed through government policies to raise the birth rate.
Migration flows are stimulated by economic factors. For example, during the Troika period (2011-2014), the average unemployment rate in Portugal was 15%, and during this period, about 200,000 people (emigrants) left the country. Economic migrants move to countries, but they move primarily to territories, to cities.
The emphasized degree of urbanization that the planet is experiencing is largely supported by migration flows. Portugal, a country with an accelerated aging population (the aging index has increased by about 80% in 20 years), urgently needs two public policies: immigration and incentives to retain new talent.
The country must be able to renew its generations, because otherwise it loses an active population, conditions its economic growth and threatens the sustainability of social security. And more important than national policy, it is the regions and cities that should become attractive for attracting immigrants. Keep them close and cherish them.
