Some notes published in the press yesterday are betting that Sergio Moro will have to forget his sorrows and get closer to Jair Bolsonaro if he wants to have any chance in his campaign for the Senate of Parana. In second place in the polls, the former judge has as his main rival incumbent senator Alvaro Diaz, who works in a similar range (criticism of the PT and corruption and unlimited support for Lava-Hato). If such an opportunity materializes, he will learn one of the classic laws of national politics: erasing the past in the name of pragmatism. The latest example of this phenomenon was carried out by former governor Geraldo Alcmin when he joined the candidacy of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

However, there are two problems.

First, Bolsonaro has already compromised with PL MP Paulo Martins, who is also running for the only seat open this year in the Upper House. To complicate matters for the former judge, Governor Ratinho Jr., also an open supporter of Planalto, is an ally of Martins.

Second problem? It is still necessary to combine this approach with Bolsonaro. The president still hasn’t forgotten how Moreau broke with the government and tried to bomb it. Bolsonaro is known to give his voters what they want to hear. And on this fundamental basis, the militants see a traitor in the former judge, since he left the Ministry of Justice to shoot. Thus, the possibility of a collision between them is small.

As we live in an election with two main candidates, another possibility for Moro will be to find Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s side. But this possibility will not even be considered. As a judge, Moreau jailed Lula on corruption charges (a few months ago, however, the STF annulled the case, clearing it up), and PT is disgusted by his name. The leaked messages exchanged on the Telegram app ended up exposing Justice’s exaggerations during Operation Car Wash, which also hurt its image in the eyes of the left and many centrist voters.

Moro may still be the candidate of the liberated – or of those who do not want either Bolsonaro or Lula to win. But today this range is low and more concentrated than Ciro Gomez and Simone Tebet. If there were two seats in the Senate, as we will have in 2026, that might even be the right strategy. But in 2022, only one chair is at stake.

This situation is exacerbated by the movement on both sides of the political spectrum to pass the bill in the first round. With such antagonism, it is natural that the majority of voters end up choosing either Lula or Bolsonaro, and also choose their senatorial candidates from the lists supported by these candidates.

The electorate of Moro will swallow the alliance with Bolsonaro but run away from the agreement with Lula. That is why Moreau sees the possibility of an alliance with Planalto with a certain resignation and a certain remorse.

The fact is that the former referee managed to dislike the two strongest sides of the struggle. At this point in the championship, he is headed towards defeat by his former political godfather, who welcomed him to Podemos and then left for Moro to join Uniao Brasil. The break with Alvaro Diaz was perhaps one of the biggest mistakes in the recent history of national politics, as the senator said several times that he would leave the majority dispute to make way for a former minister. However, it is now too late, and the chances of winning are slim. Without Plan B, Moro would have to be ostracized and, worse, out of the spotlight. At the risk of facing some lawsuits, including from PT.