The University of Washington has extended its projections about how many people are likely to die from the corona virus in the US until November 1, which estimates at least 208,255 deaths at the time, based on the current scenario.
But if 95% of the population wears masks in public, that number will drop to around 162,808, the University’s Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) said Tuesday.
Last week, the IHME estimated around 175,168 total deaths on October 1, based on the current scenario. But if almost everyone wears a face mask, that number will drop to more than 150,000.
How the modeling works: The current model includes predictions that anticipate the re-adoption of a strong social distance mandate when deaths per day reach a level of eight per one million people, combined with widespread adoption of masks, versus approaches that do not take preventative action. For example, strong social distance measures in Florida could cut 6,173 deaths there on October 1.
This model continues to predict a serious increase in deaths and cases from mid to late September and October. Projections can change if there is a surge in infection among populations at risk. Currently, countries report they detect an increase in the number of cases in younger people, who have a lower risk of death, IHME said.
Some contexts: So far, according to Johns Hopkins University, more than 2.96 million Americans have been diagnosed with coronavirus infection and at least 130,902 have died.
