How Lula lost the first political round of his government

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Photo: Ricardo Stuckert

Serial advertising in support of the re-election of an MP Arthur Lyra (PP/AL) for the presidency of the Chamber show that Lula failed to achieve its first strategic goal after winning the election: have enough political support in the National Congress to regain executive powers.

Before the first round result, center party sources warned that Lula would try to use positions in the federal government to create a base that would allow him to influence elections to the House and get a more recovery-oriented leadership. protagonist Planalto. The victory of the Conservative parties sparked a yellow light, but their conquest on October 30 opened the door to a new window of negotiations with leaders who resisted declaring themselves in opposition.

However, without resorting to any political approach, the transition group, instead of seducing the allies, began its work by presenting the idea PEC asks for a lot of money, initiating negotiations he could not afford. The first person to notice the mistake was the senator. Renan Calleiros (MDB/AL), who classified this movement as shaving.

Looking back, the analysis is simple. Lula asked Congress for a fat check and even some of his newly won prerogatives. It gave rise to hopes among deputies and senators for places in the federal administration and … disappeared. His absence for two weeks (one for the international agenda and another for sick leave) without delegating political composition powers only served to discredit the vice president-elect. Geraldo Alkmin and make it clear that PT will play a central role in the most strategic areas of public policy.deconstructing the post-election wishful thinking, thinking that there will be a coalition government with a slight left bias.

In addition, aggressive statements against the market contributed to the revival. negative memories of past PT experiences about how to manage the household, calling the technical leadership of the party in a personal conversation, which “It’s okay that Lula wanted to redeem his background in this government, but he also wanted to redeem the government. Dilma (Roussef) it was too much!”🇧🇷 Business circles and market representatives, who are part of the network of communicating vessels connecting deputies and senators, tried to sound the alarm, it could not be otherwise.

The fact is that the new government, wanting to actually exercise power without sitting down in a chair, got into a complex labyrinth. In order to approve the PEC, will it have to make concessions in order to accommodate non-aligned parties in the formation of a new government? Can Lula carve out seats in government that serve only her friends during the first and second hours, and even then get the budgetary and enforcement resources he asks for? At least one thing is certain. Lula will create his own ministry, which will have to solve more conflicts than he would like. and is seriously at risk of starting his term having already lost his first legislative battle.

The fact is that while Lula was on the road or defended himself, the centrist parties did not seek or receive proposals for effective participation in the next government. So, Lyra had an open path to secure his re-election more easily than one could imagine, so much so that Lula’s possible support for his name or not today, in terms of results, does not matter much.

And the scenario could get even worse for Planalto. If Lira implements the idea of ​​a bloc with the main parties in the center, the PT will not chair any of the most important parliamentary committees in the House.

And, understanding the difficulty of approving PECs, PT MPs will defend behind the scenes the use of STFs to obtain over-the-ceiling resources to pay Bolsa Surname🇧🇷 Given the circumstances of the hostility between the political world and the judiciary, one can think of a more difficult inauguration of the government than one that, after losing the political battle, resorts to the STF in order to be able to count on the resources denied by the deputies. and senators?

Thus, advertising supporting the lira shows that Lula was unable to consolidate his position in the Legislative Assembly and even lost his positions.🇧🇷 This raises the question of how the future government will organize its base, based on such an unfavorable point (there are only 133 deputies in the left coalition).

There are two scenarios.

In the first, Lula decides to rule with a minority and begins to debate agenda after agenda, trying to attract detractors by practicing big retail in Congress and keeping her legislative agenda to the minimum possible. The other is to recognize an equal in the lyre, Just like Jair Bolsonaro did.by inviting him to take a leading role in the government’s agenda and participate (or his closest group) in the development of major decisions, continuing the semi-presidency that actually exists in Brazil today.

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