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Home loan: Interest rates have already risen more than in the 2008 crisis See how far they can go

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Home loan: Interest rates have already risen more than in the 2008 crisis See how far they can go

Installments will increase sharply from next week, when October begins. Interest rates are rising rapidly to 3% and the OECD already allows rates at 4%. This is TVI’s new weekly feature, “People Are Not Numbers.”

Do you have a home loan? So get ready: October will be the first month you’ll experience a significant increase in mortgage payments.

Nearly 19 out of 20 mortgages in Portugal have variable interest rates, with payments being reviewed every three, six or 12 months according to the contract index. However, the update is based on the average Euribor for the previous month. And September was the first month when the average Euribor was much higher. That’s why the big effects start in October. Next week.

The six-month Euribor (most used in Portugal) is about two percentage points higher than it was six months ago in March. And the 12-month Euribor (the second most used) is almost 2.5 percentage points from what it was a year ago.

Hence the simulations. For example, for a loan of 150 thousand euros for 30 years, indexed to Euribor for 6 months, the installment will increase by 141 euros, from 454 to 595 euros. In the same example, but with indexation to Euribor for 12 months, it is worse: the increase in October, that the installment plan will be revised, will be 194 euros.

21 more years to pay

More than 1.43 million Portuguese families owe a total of more than 100 billion euros in mortgage loans. And on average, it takes about 21 years to repay a loan.

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This means that only with the currently confirmed increase in the Euribor rate, Portuguese families will pay at least another two billion euros per year.

What is the average performance?

But how much do the Portuguese owe today and how much do they pay?

On average, each Portuguese with a mortgage loan owes the bank about 60,000 euros and pays 268 euros per month. These people will pay about 100 euros more per month.

But if you look at who bought a house in the last three months, and the most expensive houses, then the average debt is 128 thousand euros, and the monthly payment is 445 euros. Benefit, which will increase to about 200 euros per month.

And in the future? Adults without time and younger without money

In the future, it will be more difficult to buy a house on credit. For three reasons:

Firstly, because the loan is more expensive, so the installment plan will put more pressure on the family income. And this will force the banks themselves to say “no” more often, rejecting offers from customers who want to buy a house.

Secondly, because older people have less time. From April 1, the Bank of Portugal introduced new age rules, which in practice reduce the loan repayment period from 40 to 30 years. And that means higher monthly payments. Only up to 30 years old can get a 40-year loan. The problem is that…

… Thirdly, the younger one has no money. Housing is one of the biggest problems for young people and even one of the reasons why young people do not leave their parents’ homes.

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Portugal is indeed a European Union country where young people leave home later, at an average age of 33 years and 7 months (women leave later than men). This is almost seven years later than the EU average, and, for example, almost 15 years later than the Swedes.

Interest rates will continue to rise?

You can remove the question mark: interest rates will continue to rise. Yesterday, the ECB signaled that it would raise interest rates again in October by at least another 0.5 percentage points, and it does not stop there. For this reason, the Euribor (which has now already exceeded 2.5% in 12 months when it was negative a year ago) is rapidly approaching 3%.

Worse, in a report released yesterday, the OECD made an assessment that went unnoticed: it already allows central bank interest rates at 4%.

Yes, rates will go up.

Euribor has already risen more than the financial crisis

This is another aspect that has gone unnoticed. Many people ask if Euribor will be able to reach the record set in October 2008, at the height of the financial crisis, when it exceeded 5.5%. Everything will depend on the evolution of inflation, but even the pessimism of the OECD does not indicate such high values.

It turns out that not the value of Euribor, but its growth this year is already greater than in 2008. That year, the Euribor rose from February to September by about 1.1 percentage points, from about 4.2% to 5.5%.

This year, the 12-month Euribor, for example, rose from a negative 0.4% in early February to over 2.5% in early October.

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So installments are not as expensive as they were then, but they have more than doubled from the year that banks like Lehman Brothers or, in Portugal, BPN and BPP collapsed.

This analysis is carried out in a new feature called “People are not numbers”, which will be broadcast every Tuesday on the TVI program Jornal das 8.

Note. Cited sources of information

Bank of Portugal

Credit Market Monitoring Report

Interest rates and amounts of new loans and deposits: statistical information for July 2022

Non-financial sector debt

Amounts-Credits-Private UM-housing-M€ (new operations)

INE

Mortgage Interest Rates – August

interest rates

Evribor

ECB key rates

OECD

Economic Outlook Interim Report September 2022: Payback for War

Eurostat

Leaving home: young Europeans spread their wings

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Economy

What factors impact financial markets?

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The global financial markets are now hugely complex, with traders and analysts around the world looking closely for signs of movement. What are some of the most important factors to be aware of that impact the financial markets?

Geopolitical events

With news breaking from different countries throughout the day, many different stories could affect the markets on any given day. For instance, economic indicators such as the European Central Bank’s inflation rates and gross domestic product numbers released by each country can determine which direction the markets take. Stocks, currencies and other financial instruments can all vary depending on these areas.

Major events such as war breaking out, natural disasters and elections also have an effect. When we look at the commodities market, climate change is an issue to bear in mind, with unusual weather sometimes causing scarcity or abundance of a certain product.

An interesting aspect of the modern financial world is the way that the different markets are linked. This means that any important event or news story that affects one area could easily affect another, even if the link isn’t obvious at first sight. We can also see how local shocks and events can quickly have an effect at a global level.

The financial crisis of 2008 is a good example, as it started with a serious downturn in the US housing market. Although this appeared to be a localized issue at first, it soon revealed some major issues with the global banking setup that caused problems around the planet affecting millions of people and diverse industries.

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Speculation and investment trends

The previous factors all point toward the markets changing, and there’s no shortage of traders around the world waiting to see what happens next and how they can benefit. This means that we need to take into account other issues such as speculation and investment trends in the markets.

Armed with a variety of tools, including candlestick charts, traders try to identify trends such as support and resistance levels. They use the information they glean from the charts to make their moves, which can influence the general market if enough people make the same moves or if the amounts involved are significant.

Once an investment trend begins, it can have a knock-on effect that would have been impossible to predict at the outset. The example of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies shows how something that starts small can grow impressively. Cryptocurrencies have now gained enough mainstream appeal to influence and disrupt many industries, from healthcare to gaming and banking.

It’s important to understand how the leaders of a company operate and how they have faced challenges in the past. If we look at banking and the Bank of New York Mellon in particular, we can see that its history can be traced back to 1784, so it has overcome all the major events that have occurred since then. With some of the biggest names in the business world making up its key institutional investors, this is a company that we would expect to react effectively to changing markets.

Regulatory changes and company results

Just about every industry represented in the financial markets has laws and regulations that govern it. This means that the fear of harsher new laws is an almost constant threat. Meanwhile, the hope that beneficial changes to the regulations help businesses prosper is the other side of this matter that investors keep a close eye on.

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Let’s not forget the role played by the profit and loss results produced by major companies. It’s clear that these results have an almost immediate effect on their stock prices. However, we should also bear in mind that this effect can reach other areas of the economy. A surprising set of results for a large business can produce shock waves that travel around the market.

What impact do they cause?

From the wide variety of examples that we’ve looked at here, it’s clear that the impact isn’t going to be the same in every case. While one set of circumstances might snowball and cause a huge impact, another might cause a limited impact before the news disappears as other events overtake it.

Having said that, one of the key issues that they cause is a higher degree of market volatility. We can see how this works by looking at an area such as the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The markets became a lot more volatile as the different aspects of the pandemic became clear. Streaming companies, healthcare companies and video conferencing technology firms made huge profits, while airlines and hotels were among those to lose out massively.

Working out the overall impact of a particular situation is almost impossible to do now. With so many traders looking over the latest news stories and numbers with advanced tools, the original impact can quickly grow or simply disappear. Therefore, the key for investors is to understand emerging trends and react to them before it’s too late.

These details reveal how complex the global financial market is now. It’s a fascinating world, and with more information at our fingertips than ever before, it’s something that anyone can start to research and understand in their own way.

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Economy

Everything has been delivered. 10 Bugatti Centodieci are already in the hands of the owners

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Everything has been delivered.  10 Bugatti Centodieci are already in the hands of the owners

OAll Bugatti Centodieci have been delivered, the Molsheim-based brand said on Monday. Cristiano Ronaldo received the number 07 in October this year. and Bugatti has now revealed that the latest unit – #10 – is already in the possession of its owner.

“The Centodieci combines all the values ​​of the Bugatti brand in an extraordinary package: rarity, innovation, heritage, craftsmanship and unrivaled performance. The production batch of 10 units was so in demand by our customers that it was sold before the Centodieci. was even officially presented,” said Christophe Piochon, president of Bugatti.

This latest example is finished in Quartz White with carbon fiber trim on the bottom and matte grilles. The brake calipers are painted in Light Blue Sport, as is the logo on the rear that refers to the EB110, the iconic Bugatti model that inspired this Centodieci. Inside, the predominant color is also blue, as you can see in the images above.

This block is powered by the same block as the other nine instances. The 8.0-liter W16 with four turbines is capable of developing 1600 hp. In terms of performance, this allows the Centodieci to hit 100 km/h in just 2.4 seconds and reach a top speed of 380 km/h.

Recall that each unit costs the owners eight million euros before taxes.

Read also: We already know when the Bugatti Centodieci fell into the hands of Ronaldo.

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Economy

The first Dacia hybrid. “The cheapest hybrid family on the market”

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The first Dacia hybrid.  "The cheapest hybrid family on the market"

BUT Dacia revealed this Monday that the hybrid engine has been available since March on the Jogger, the Romanian brand’s model known to be available with a seven-seat variant.

The Jogger Hybrid 140, Dacia’s first hybrid, will hit dealerships in March, but customers can expect and order it as early as January.

The price has been revealed by Dacia and since it’s only available in the seven-seater SL Extreme, it starts at €28,800. The brand claims it is “the most affordable hybrid family car on the market.”

Available in six existing colors to celebrate the launch of this hybrid, there will be a slate gray version, as you can see in the images above.

Equipped with a 1.6 liter four-cylinder petrol engine with 90 hp, the Jogger is also powered by two electric motors (a 50 hp engine and a high-voltage starter-generator). The total power is 140 horsepower. The electric transmission is automatic, four-speed, connected to an internal combustion engine, and two speeds are connected to an electric motor. This combined technology was possible, according to Dacia, only due to the lack of clutch.

Combined with the energy recovery levels of the 1.2kWh (230V) battery pack and the efficiency of the automatic transmission, regenerative braking delivers all-electric traction on 80% of urban journeys and saves up to 40% of fuel compared to a combustion engine vehicle.

Read also: Dual-fuel Dacia Jogger Eco-G. We tried 5 seater and LPG…

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