Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome H. Powell speaking on March 3, 2020 in Washington, DC.
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Firstly CNBC Fed Review since the Federal Reserve announced its new, softer monetary policy strategy, respondents now do not forecast interest rate increases by the central bank until 2023.
The results are a potential first sign that the Fed’s new strategy of allowing inflation to exceed its 2% target for an indefinite period of time has an immediate impact on the rate forecast.
The new average forecast, which the Fed postponed until February 2023, is six months after the July poll and amid more optimistic outlooks for the economic recovery and higher inflation forecasts. Under the previous strategy, when the Fed was aiming for a symmetrical target of 2%, these conditions could push the prospect of rate hikes.
“The Fed’s adoption of flexible targeting of average inflation gives (it) considerable leeway to tolerate excess inflation, and rates will remain at an effective lower bound for several years,” said John Ryding, chief economic advisor to Brean Capital.
The central bank kicks off a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday.
An overwhelming majority of 37 respondents, which include economists, fund managers and strategists, believe the Fed will sit idly by if inflation surpasses the 2% target. Forty-eight percent said the Fed would tolerate inflation above its target of six months to a year without a hike, while 41% said the Fed would tolerate higher inflation for a year or longer.
How high?
CNBC specifically asked what the average inflation was in the six months before the Fed hike. The average response was 3.2%.
While CNBC data is among the first to introduce real numbers into the Fed’s new policy, respondents said they wanted the central bank to do so directly.
“Low unemployment has been dismissed as a factor in inflation, but we do not know which culprit we must now watch … neither how long nor how much overfulfillment will be tolerated,” said Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Point Loma Nazarene University.
Some respondents were concerned that inflation could become an issue sooner than the Fed expects. Sixty-five percent now consider the actions of Congress and the Fed to combat the economic impact of the virus inflationary, up from 44% in the July poll.
“Has everyone forgotten that economic policy has large lags, and the impact of the policies already implemented this year is likely to have a significant positive impact in 2021?” Said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group. “It is time for political officials to take a step back and take a breath.”
To which Peter Boquvar, chief investment officer of Bleakley Advisory Group, added: “There is so much talk going on about what else the Fed can do. Instead, I want to hear / see how they think about changing this extraordinary policy when we get an effective vaccine that may well appear in the next few months. “
Is the recession over yet?
Overall, economists have improved their forecasts for the economy. Just over half believe that the current recession is over and, on average, ended in May. Of the 47% of those who think that there is more to come, they predict that, on average, it will end in April.
Forecasts are generally better, with GDP expected to contract 2.6% this year, compared with a 4.5% fall expected in July. The outlook for the unemployment rate also improved by several points, and forecasters see the CPI at the end of the year was 1.4%, more than a percentage point higher than the July survey.
Overall, 69% of respondents say the recovery is progressing faster than they originally predicted.
“The economy recovered much earlier and faster than expected in the spring,” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities. “Real GDP growth, inflation and unemployment are well ahead of schedule.”
But there are significant risks to the forecast. Fifty-three percent of respondents believe there is a likelihood of a second wave of the virus in the fall and winter, just 5 points less than in the July survey.
