(Miriam Leitao & Ana Carolina Diniz)

IPCA-15 hit 10.42% on a cumulative basis, while Transport was the villain (2.31%). All types of fuel have grown, and since the beginning of the year it has exceeded 20%. In December alone, gasoline prices increased by 3.28%, and ethanol – by almost 5%.

Reaching double digits is very dangerous. And the President of the Republic had a negative impact on this situation. The global economic crisis pushes inflation around the world, but every time Bolsonaro creates political stress, he raises the dollar, and this affects all other prices. Bolsonaro was the country’s worst inflationary factor in a year. Inflation, when it further reduces Brazil’s income and further complicates the economic situation. The central bank has responded by raising interest rates, and they will rise next year.

The IPCA closed in December is expected to be lower. According to André Braz, Economist in charge of Ibre / FGV price indicesit is forecasted that it will remain at the level of 0.65% and 10.2% of accumulated. Gas will no longer be the villain as the price of gas has dropped slightly (by about 1%) due to a downward revision made by Petrobras in early December.

– There is nothing to celebrate. Inflation is very common. Durable goods such as cars and household appliances are on the rise. As well as services such as a restaurant and workshops. Apart from air tickets. According to him, this is a reflection of inflationary pressures that worry us.

Braz says inflation is expected to fall sharper next year from the middle of next year. This is because the second half of this year was strong, with inflation of 1% per month. And on top of that, it has an impact on the interest rate, which further depresses the economy.

Economists generally believe inflation will decline next year. According to forecasts of the Central Bank, it will remain within the range of fluctuations of the ceiling of 5.25%.

Unfortunately, giving back doesn’t bring relief. The fall will be triggered by the recession. In any case, there are other price pressures as well: next year the dollar will be very volatile: this is an election year, and the president will continue to create a daily hustle and bustle that will hit the exchange rate. In addition, a 20% increase in electricity bills is already envisaged.

The good news is that food will weigh less. According to MB Associados, food inflation should be 3%. IPCA-15, released Thursday, demonstrated this slowdown. In December it amounted to 0.35%, in November – 0.40%, in October – 1.38%. And it will slow down a little more in the full December IPCA. The reason is the expectation of a good harvest, which is already beginning to influence prices.