Reuben K. Keinertretired professor FGV-EAESP
The latest polls confirmed Lula’s lead in the next presidential election and Jair Bolsonaro’s second place in the first round. They also confirm that the intent percentage of consolidated votes that both have – about 75% of the electorate – makes it very difficult for another competitive candidate to emerge, although there is apparently nothing stopping other candidates from continuing to express support and alliances in anticipation of twists and turns after the official start of the campaign.
It is in this tuning fork that Simone Tebet/Tasso Gereissati appears, the pre-candidate, speaking out against a numerical reality that has discouraged several others who have stood in the way. The so-called Third Way has been reduced to a third candidate, Ciro Gomez, the first name to be overcome by those who want to participate in the battle coming from below. With 7-8% intent, Sirao das Massas remains solid even if he has nothing to do.
Despite these deviant characters, Tebeta and Ciro, the pre-candidates continue to take into account what polls show about voter preferences. Testimonials are more eloquent than persistence and testify to the professionalism and competence of political intelligence institutions (with the usual exceptions). Continuously measuring the perception of gestures, words, and actions of postulators is critical to providing feedback on campaigns and guiding the next steps.
From this point of view, one can understand the decisions made by teams, as well as tactical and strategic successes and mistakes, although successes do not always help, and mistakes do not harm. There are surprises along the way. Thus, the Ciro campaign’s “right” to publish a book with its program and government ideas did not have the expected effect; he was not harmed by the “mistakes” of Lula’s untimely statements in terms of numbers; nor does the Bolsonaro government’s crude ways of thinking, speaking, and acting (or not acting) seem to make much of a difference in percentages over the course of his campaign. Although they did affect their base acceptance and rejection numbers.
Here, a little-known concept, a political fact, is taken into account. A gesture, a word, or an action becomes a political fact only if it produces effects in the realm of politics itself, which is to seek and retain power, and which escalates at the moment of an electoral dispute. To do this, the candidate and his entourage must be able to convey to the electorate what is relevant for the campaign at the moment. Make equal use of your opponents’ mistakes.
Lula’s advantage at the moment is matched by the fact that he personifies the government’s program to fight hunger, protect labor rights, restore employment and income, support minority interests and the right to life, protect the environment, and restore Brazil’s international prestige. This program is a current political fact, it is Lula’s great success.
For Bolsonaro to remove him from office, it will be necessary to convince voters that the problems he is experiencing will be solved by religiosity, the salvation of the patriarchal family, the arming of the population, the freedom of the majority to impose their views and fight minorities. , turn the Amazon into a productive region and distance Brazil from international multilateral organizations. In other words, to show that this program remains politically relevant, albeit without the fight against corruption and without neoliberal proposals. And it is Ciro and Simone who should stand out from these two programs and offer appropriate options.
