Per Javier Castro Cruz e Jaime Brothel GilEm Bounce | Translation: Roni Rodriguez

A historic pact, the left-wing candidate led by Gustavo Petro and Francia Márquez leads all polls and is already starting with an advantage with a strong showing in the March 13 legislative elections. The left has never been so close to power in a very conservative country where a bloody conflict between the Colombian state and guerrillas has blocked progressive alternatives.

Today, however, Colombian society has changed a lot, and the left’s agenda of redistribution, peace, and fighting corruption seems to be seducing the general population, especially the youth. accusations of partisans from the right no longer have the effect they had before, and, paradoxically, the left’s stance on the armed conflict has become one of their greatest assets in the face of the electoral dispute. The Colombian left has become the political option most committed to peace, and its commitment to the 2016 Accords is the strongest of any candidate represented in this Sunday’s May 29th election.

On the other side of the political spectrum, the right is in deep crisis, meaning that for the first time in years, uribismo is not running its own candidate. The political current led by former President Alvaro Uribe, to which current President Ivan Duque belongs, had a mandate that would be better forgotten. [para a direita]marked by social unrest and ongoing protests against his government. His mismanagement of the country, coupled with the conviction of Alvaro Uribe for witness bribery and procedural fraud, has left this political space in a more delicate position than ever.

In this context, the candidacy led by Petro succeeded in offering a horizon of change that is more in line with the desire for peace and the demands for social justice that Colombian society has been proclaiming on the streets of late.

November 21: The explosion that changed everything

November 21, 2019 was an important milestone in the history of social mobilization in Colombia. What initially began as a national strike organized by trade unions against the neo-liberal economic measures of the Duque government soon became a symbol of discontent with the government. Various organized movements in society, such as students, feminists, people of African descent, indigenous and peasant communities, took to the streets and staged a series of mass marches that lasted three weeks and provoked a social explosion that will break out with great force in 2021. , after parentheses imposed by the pandemic.

Sanda Borda, author of the book stop to move forward, describes how the historical character of the marches lies in the many, varied and unusual nature of the mobilizations, the result of a profound transformation of the political culture and social protest in Colombia created during the peace process. The dynamism of the mobilization itself has made it possible to bring together endless demands, such as combating youth insecurity, full application of the 2016 Peace Accords, condemnation of violence against community leaders, the struggle of women or the rights of indigenous peoples. communities. A whole mosaic of demands that contributed to the political activation of the youth, who were already actively present during the agreements and in the mobilizations that preceded the uprising. This phenomenon has been reflected in the political sphere, and, as happened in Chile with Gabriel Borich, young people are the age group most supportive of the Historical Pact. A factor that can be fundamental to getting a good result in the first round.

One of the great virtues of the Historical Pact was the understanding of the changes that had taken place in Colombian society in recent years, in response to the many new demands that arose as a result of the social uprising. According to the latest reports from the Latin American Center for Geopolitical Studies (CELAG), corruption and poverty are the country’s top concerns for Colombians, with only 15% listing crime and drug trafficking as the number one. A context that clearly favors the left, which has been out of power for decades and has a program to redistribute wealth and reduce social inequality, unlike the right, which has been heavily discredited since Ivan Duque came to power.

A crisis on right

The resumption of the nationwide strike in April 2021 after the announcement of the tax reform resulted in the consolidation of two trends: the ability of the left to expand its electoral base and the discrediting of Urib’s right. On the one hand, the left was able to expand its space by adding the socio-economic demands that arose from the mobilization of the popular strata; on the other hand, the Right was sinking deeper and deeper into a crisis of projects and leadership that they could not yet resolve.

This crisis is expressed in the candidacy of Federico “Fico” Gutierrez, a non-partisan candidate who, despite the support of Alvaro Uribe’s party, tried to appear as little as possible with the former president. In the same vein, some gestures, such as the election of Rodrigo Lara, elector Sim no plebiscite [para o processo de paz com a guerrilha]like the VP formula. And, ironically, merging sectors close to former President Uribe could jeopardize one of Gutiérrez’s candidacy’s main goals: to win the political center. If the right wants to be able to govern, they will seduce the center, which in 2018 was afraid to vote for Petro and chose Ivan Duque.

The problem is that this is a more difficult mission than ever for an uribismo-backed candidate who not only had a disastrous economic mandate, but also posed every possible obstacle to the implementation of the 2016 Peace Accords. A difficult and recurring question on the right. for they were one of the main points of discontinuity between the more moderate current and those closer to the former President Santos, who imposed them on his government, and others who considered them to be the stock of guerrillas led by Alvaro Uribe. Thus, this will undoubtedly be one of the issues on which Fico Gutiérrez distances himself from Uribe and his clan, as was seen a few weeks ago when he stated that his government would abide by the peace agreements.

The final stretch of the campaign, Fico Gutierrez hopes, will be marked by a certain balance with the Democratic Center, the party of Alvaro Uribe. Trying not to get into the frame without knocking out the sectors that he also needs to win will be a difficult task. There will also be leftists, more united than ever before, who seek to break the historical cycle and start a phase of change in the country.

Um historical pact

Nominating a single candidacy was no easy task for the Colombian left. The historical pact was born out of an imperfect heterogeneity, as Luciana Cadahya points out, involving various parties and movements with the goal of accepting the desire for change in Colombia. Far from a revolutionary program, the coalition led by Peter seeks to formulate a social bloc capable of strengthening democracy and peace in the country. Reforming the welfare model, advancing agrarian and tax reforms, improving public education, returning to the public health system, or moving away from extractive industries are some of the equity and social justice challenges that a possible progressive government will face.

The development of social and ethnic leadership, formed during the peace agreements in the territories, was another key to the success of the Historical Pact. The protagonist provided to these figures allowed the coalition to single out numerous sectors and cease to be permanently associated with the guerrillas. Perhaps the most obvious example is Francia Marquez. Vice presidential candidate Gustavo Petro has become a real political phenomenon after her incredible performance in cross-party consultations. While her social and political leadership was strengthened in her community’s environmental rights to the territory and in her opposition to forced evictions, her candidacy was also able to represent the struggles of Colombian feminist and anti-racist movements.

This heterogeneity is today the greatest asset of the Historical Pact. An opportunity to present a series of struggles ranging from the classical left to feminist, anti-racist and environmental movements. The historic pact seeks to be the voice of thousands of sentiments for peaceful change in Colombia.

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