Bolsonaro’s trial for common crimes will be similar to that faced by Michel Temer in 2017, when he was president. At that time, the PGR brought two charges against Temer: one of passive corruption and the other of criminal organization and obstruction of justice in a case involving businessman Joesley Batista. In both cases, the House did not authorize the initiation of a trial at the STF against the then president.

This time, Bolsonaro is being investigated on charges of malfeasance, an offense that can be punished with imprisonment from three months to one year and is described in the Penal Code as “delay or failure to perform improper official action or its use against an explicit provision of the law to satisfy personal interests or feelings. “

Brothers Luis Ricardo Miranda, an employee of the Ministry of Health, and Luis Claudio Miranda (DEM-DF), a federal lawmaker, say they met with the president on March 20, when they reportedly informed him of alleged violations in the sale of Covaxin. there remained ministry documents containing evidence of overpricing for the purchase of an immunizing agent.

According to the congressman, Bolsonaro indicated that MP Ricardo Barros (Progressistas-PR), the leader of the government in the House, will be involved in the scheme. Barros denies this.

Bolsonaro claims to have handed the documents handed over by the brothers “forward,” asking then-Minister of Health, Eduardo Pazuello, to investigate the case in the file. Bolsonaro would also say that he will send the case to the PF. However, Pasuello left the office a few days later, and there are no records of federal police actually investigating the suspicions.

The president also argues that malfeasance can only be based on the actions of civil servants, and not the president of the republic.

According to Elival da Silva Ramos, chief professor of constitutional law at the University of São Paulo School of Law (USP), Bolsonaro may have been wrong on this point. “The Criminal Code indicates that the president of the republic, as well as deputies and senators, can commit crimes related to malfeasance as political agents. Perhaps someone misinformed the president about this, ”he says.

In the investigation against Bolsonaro, the federal police will have 90 days to find out if the president really made a mistake in the purchase of the vaccine. This period can be postponed. PF will then send a request to PGR.

“The Federal Attorney’s Office (FPM) can understand that there is evidence of authorship and materiality of the crime, and file a complaint against Bolsonara. It may also consider this evidence insufficient and submit it, ”says Chemim.

In the scenario of filing a complaint, the Chamber will have to analyze and vote for the initiation of a criminal case against Bolsonaro in the STF – there is no way not to analyze the case, as is the case, for example, with requests for impeachment. , in which the decision on whether it is made by the president of the chamber.

“In this case, Bolsonaro will be judged by the STF, who will say whether he has committed a crime related to public service.”

The lawyer explains that this judgment would have been of a public-administrative nature, since the crime would have been committed in the performance of the functions of a state agent. An impeachment process, for example, could run in parallel, but the decision would be congressional and political in nature, including liability offenses (evasiveness could be one factor that should be assessed by Congress).

If the STF is found guilty of malfeasance, Bolsonaro will be permanently removed from office and may even be arrested, although Chemim argues that the crime of malfeasance is rarely punished by the arrest of the accused.

For Elival da Silva Ramos of the USP, the way of leaving will largely depend on the actions of the head of the PGR, Augusto Aras. “Only one person can sue the president: the attorney general. If he says there is no evidence of a crime, it’s over. The Supreme Court has no authority to initiate criminal proceedings, ”he says.

Aras, who was appointed to this position by Bolsonaro, has been criticized for his closeness to the government – he was one of the main names nominated by the president for a vacancy at STF. Initially, the prosecutor decided not to initiate an investigation against Bolsonaro in the Covaxin case, but under pressure from Minister Rosa Weber, the IMF began an investigation.

Political scientist Carlos Melo, Professor Insper, also notes that while the removal initiated by this legal route may take place, it still depends on the political context – the ultimately materialized vote on the complaint in the Chamber.

“Sometimes legal arguments are not enough, because the last filter will always be from politics – which means having a qualified majority to start the (removal) process,” the analyst notes.

“Michel Temer was extremely exhausted, the republic’s Attorney General twice asked the Chamber to initiate a case, every day a new complaint appeared in the newspaper, the bad climate, the popularity of shoe soles … And there was no removal. Somehow he achieved what Dilma (Roussef, impeached) could not: keep favorable votes because of the control of the machine. “

Despite the emphasis on political pragmatism, Melo says that the removal of the president – whether in connection with a lawsuit in the Supreme Court or an impeachment request – is a “process” that comes with a combination of factors, not just one. … It can be an economic crisis, pressure from the streets, statements from a vice president, and others.

His understanding of the situation in Bolsonaro, threatened by impeachment orders and the PF investigation, is that there are many of these factors, but House Speaker Arthur Lear’s own reluctance to obey the impeachment order indicates that the removal is likely not to be approved in ward today.

For Melo, the likely rejection of the Hall may explain Lyra’s position far more than his alliance with Bolsonaro. According to him, if the conditions for dismissal are firm, the chairman of the chamber will agree to this process.

“Of course, there is a factor of alliance with Bolsonaro, but there is a phrase by Tancredo Neves, which says: a good politician goes to the grave with another, but he does not play. I think that Arthur Lear is exactly like that. politician, go with Bolsonaro to his grave, but don’t play. “

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