The European Commission has left its growth forecasts for Portugal unchanged at 3.9% in 2021 and 5.1% in 2022, even after the Bank of Portugal estimated growth at 4.8% this year in June. However, he revised eurozone growth upward from 4.3% to 4.8% in 2021 and from 4.4% to 4.5% in 2022.
“GDP is expected to grow 3.9% in 2021 and 5.1% in 2022. The economy is expected to return to its pre-pandemic level of COVID-19 by mid-2022, ”he says in his summer forecasts.
According to Brussels, “the Portuguese economy is heading towards a sustained recovery starting in the second quarter of 2021, along with the gradual lifting of restrictions caused by the pandemic,” but admits that “the pace of recovery has slowed due to a partial recovery. temporary restrictions in June “, caused by an increase in the number of infections caused by SARS-CoV-2.
But the community leader expects GDP growth to “increase even more” in the third quarter as foreign tourism picks up again in Portugal, backed by a vaccination campaign and the use of the COVID digital certification.
At the same time, the Commission recognizes that tourism, due to the strong exposure to the Portuguese economy, remains a negative risk for the forecast. However, “it is currently largely offset by the risks of industrial growth, which could benefit from increased global demand.
The European Commission also hopes that each country’s National Recovery and Resilience (PRR) plan will make a “significant” contribution to economic growth. According to their calculations, the PRR should generate aggregate wealth in 2021 and 2022 equivalent to 1.2% of the GDP of the European Union in 2019.
The uncertainty and risks associated with this macroeconomic scenario remain “high,” Brussels admits, but “globally balanced.”
