Jair Bolsonaro (Poland) travels to New York to open the 77th UN General Assembly on Tuesday (20). The tight schedule, two weeks before the election, and the fact that he was in second place in the polls, however, required the president’s team to weigh the political risk of the scenarios more carefully.

Ahead of the campaign event, the trip to the US will have caravans of supporters from American cities to greet the president this Monday (19) and for lunch again on Tuesday, after the UN address.

In the midst of an election dispute far from resolved, traveling abroad, mostly to two international destinations in a row – the president also traveled to London to attend the funeral of Queen Elizabeth II – was not a simple calculation.

However, the government estimated that the trip was mandatory and that the political cost of absence would be higher than the price of attendance, reinforcing the image of isolation in world political chess.

Not that presence guarantees integration into the global fabric. Bolsonaro has no scheduled bilateral meetings with any head of state significant to the Brazilian economy, and so far only confirmed meetings with Ecuadorian Presidents Guillermo Lasso; from Guatemala, Alejandro Giammattei; from Poland Andrzej Duda; and Aleksandar Vučić from Serbia, all from the global right. In addition, he is to meet with UN Secretary General António Guterres.

But the decision to travel to the US was made for a different reason than the one that brought him to London, according to the president’s allies, who wanted above all to photograph Bolsonaro next to the new King Charles III. According to the campaign, being in the UK is a big nod to the average voter in a pop topic like the British royal family, which is heavily covered by the media. The trip to New York is more aimed at opinion leaders and international leaders, as well as drawing attention to the news.

With that in mind, Bolsonaro’s General Assembly speech should be laced with bows to the international community, while keeping in mind his electoral base in Brazil. The President should talk about the food crisis caused by the Ukrainian war and repeat that Brazil is the “breadbasket of the world” capable of guaranteeing global food security, not to mention, of course, the crisis in the country itself, where, according to a recent study, hunger worsened after the pandemic. and 33 million people have nothing to eat.

However, in the wake of the war, Bolsonaro must use Europe’s natural gas shortage crisis, which has led to an increase in coal burning, to criticize countries that have condemned his environmental policies, or lack of them. He has to confirm that Brazil has a clean energy matrix, in addition to using the hook to advance his campaign proposal to promote wind energy in the northeast.

Criticized by Western powers for not taking a stand against Russia, Bolsonaro also has to speak out about hosting Ukrainian refugees in Brazil.

A significant part of his speech should also be devoted to the economy, which serves both to attract investors and voters. Bolsonaro is expected to argue that Brazil has recovered better than other countries, highlighting higher-than-expected GDP growth and upbeat market forecasts.

As hard as Brazilian diplomacy tries to prepare a more focused Bolsonaro, the final text read by the president is locked in the Planalto Palace, and there are fears that he will also use the UN platform to criticize other countries with left-wing governments. In recent events, the President has insisted on criticizing not only the Nicaraguan dictatorship, but also the democratic neighbors of Chile and Argentina, hinting at their more radical base.

If well received, the speech should be used in the campaign, especially in short social media videos. As in previous years, the president’s allies already expect the environment to be the target of political protests or environmentalists in New York.

Speaking at the UN for the fourth time, Bolsonaro, who arrived at the event in 2022, is different from previous ones. In 2019, with high hopes for his debut, the president delivered an aggressive and unusual speech to Brazilian leaders. In 2020, he recorded a speech shown remotely at the Assembly due to the pandemic and defended himself against criticism for the country’s lack of control of Covid.

In 2021, the trip was marked by the president’s refusal to get himself vaccinated against Covid-19 and doubts about rules preventing unvaccinated people from participating in indoor events. The UN allowed it, but New York did not, leading to images of Bolsonaro eating pizza on the sidewalk with ministers and in a tent set up outside a Brazilian steakhouse.

It was also Joe Biden’s first year in office and there was some tension between the two as the Brazilian openly supported the re-election of Donald Trump and repeated unfounded suspicions of fraud in the US elections. At that time, the two leaders did not meet.

In 2022, Bolsonaro travels to New York with a more peaceful relationship with Biden. They will meet for the first time in June during the Summit of the Americas, although Washington has sent messages that it should not embark on a coup d’état gamble if the Brazilian does not respect the election results.