RIO – Political scientist Christian Lynchof the Institute for Social and Political Research at the State University of Rio de Janeiro (IESP-UERJ), estimates that House President Arthur Lear (Progressistas-AL) will try to replace the secret budget paralyzed by the Federal Supreme Court (STF).) The secret disclosure of the budget amendments is part of a pact between President Jair Bolsonaro and Centrão, he said. This agreement, he analyzes, ensures the continuity of Lyra’s reign in the House and Center of Congress and the Executive Branch for the next several years. It also guarantees a “less disadvantageous” electoral status for Bolsonaro next year.

“He (Lyre) I will keep trying. He won’t give up, ”Lynch said via email shortly before the Federal Supreme Court (STF) formed a majority to uphold the injunction by Minister Rosa Weber, which paralyzed the publication of the amendments without identification – the merits will still be assessed.

Has the secret budget become the main weapon of the executive branch for obtaining a majority in the House?

In an ideal world, the government has an ideologically homogeneous party or majority coalition, which reduces the cost of governance to the minimum necessary. In Brazil, the prevailing situation is partisan division, which is designed for associations and politicians who enlist the support of any government in exchange for benefits that contribute to their re-election or personal enrichment. The coalitional presidential approach that has served as the basis for New Republic governments since the FHC collapsed due to the post-2013 political representation crisis, which legitimized claims of custody of the judiciary in subsequent years. The 2018 elections, with their conservative growth, resulted in a huge desire of the legislative and executive branches to regain their lost independence. This desire has often manifested itself in the desire to replace the rule of the judiciary with the executive power. Fortunately, Bolsonaro and his team are not only amateurs, but also authoritarian supporters. After consistently leasing the administration to the Olavists and the military, tricking a coup so as not to fall, Bolsonaro finally embraced his old comrades from the Centrão, a group of conservative, pragmatic and patrimonialist parties. They were the ones who proposed to Bolsonar a model of governance based on the old coalition presidential system of government, even more corrupt than the one that was recognized as valid under the PT governments. It is about re-editing the monthly manual, which they knew very well, with the difference that it was budget money. It was the buoy that saved the Bolsonaro government from the cliff following the September 7th atrocities.

Why does public opinion feel that the executive branch has no other way to strengthen its base in Congress than by allocating funds?

The presidential coalition is working on incentives created by the government to persuade more pragmatic congressmen to join its parliamentary base to vote on the most important drafts of its agenda. The more homogeneous the coalition, party discipline and fewer parties, the more natural and less costly the coalition can be. Well, Bolsonaro doesn’t even have a party and was elected against the political party system. Apart from his favorite radicals, there is no one “natural” in his base. Thus, the cost of “persuading” the majority is colossal, since each appropriate vote requires a lot of government money. By the way, Bolsonaro’s “normalization” after September 7 is explained precisely by the need to bring his conservatism closer to the average Centrão level, which is not radical, and to slightly reduce the costs of Congressmen to support his government in Congress. … In this strategic structure, the PEC Calote is fundamental because by making assistance to Brazil possible without sacrificing the budget quotas of the congressmen themselves, it will create the conditions for reducing former President Lula’s huge electoral advantage over the poorest electorate, especially in the Northeast. Without him, northeastern politicians such as Ciro Nogueira and Arthur Lira, associated with Bolsonaro, will be at a huge disadvantage in the elections in their states. The cost of confronting Lula is becoming prohibitive. That’s why they need Brazil’s help too. It is a matter of life and death.

What role does House President Arthur Lear play in this process?

Lyra is a conservative and authoritarian politician, but competent, he makes possible the work of government in the House. There, he is the real leader of a government that is trying to make possible a dramatic resurgence of presidential corruption, which is a pillar of the pact between Centeru and Bolsonaro. A pact that sets the stage for Lyra’s dominance in the House and Center in Congress – and therefore in the Executive Branch – to survive the next few years. And it also provides a less dangerous electoral environment for Bolsonaro, who will be at a less disadvantageous position with him in the 2022 election.

If the secret budget does fall, what could happen specifically to the Precatorio PEC? And with other interesting projects for the performer?

The secret budget is the fuel that provides the government with a qualified majority when voting at PEC Kalote. The prospect of running out of fuel has deterred many MPs from following the government again. It is for this reason that, while denigrating the alleged “activity” of the Supreme Court, Lyra is already hinting at the possibility of creating equivalent mechanisms for her clients. He will keep trying. Do not give up.

What will be the consequences of re-election of Jair Bolsonaro’s candidacy for re-election of the secret budget and rejection or inability to create PEC dos Precatório?

Such assistance will be provided in any case, even if in fits and starts, with the extension of the state of distress or in any other way. It got to the point that the decree on its creation has already been issued. Although the result is meager, the important thing is the story that something has been done. The impossibility of creating a parliamentary co-optation mechanism will call into question the agreement between Centeru and Bolsonaro. This will lead to the fact that half of the centroniks will join Lula, and the president will resume his anti-systemic pantomime of a coup. However, Lira is more likely to find functional equivalents to shadow budgeting. And it will count on wear and tear, which STF will invalidate again.

Again, will the STF play a political role and hold back the actions of the Bolsonaro government and its allies? Or is acting purely technical?

Here it is necessary to distinguish between party politics. The exercise of constitutional jurisdiction is always political in the noble sense of the word, because it often involves political issues. Preventing the executive and the legislature from going beyond their constitutional boundaries is a political activity. The court also makes political decisions in the sense that it evaluates the impact of its decision on the political system and administration. This is the so-called “consequentialism”. It so happens that sometimes ministers can go beyond their limits, as was often the case during the “judicial revolution” between 2013 and 2017. It is not surprising that the 2018 elections led to the fact that the executive and legislative branches were poisoned by anti-judicial regime, i.e. mistrust and dissatisfaction with the judiciary. Bolsonaro even unearthed an anti-judicial doctrine according to which the armed forces under the command of the president would be the so-called “deterrent force.” In this context, Hashem must act prudently so as not to exaggerate what he has done in the past. But this is not why he should allow himself to be emasculated. I believe the Supreme Court has played this cautious but firm role well from 2019 onwards, protecting the primacy of the Constitution from conservative and authoritarian enthusiasm from other authorities. Democracy could only count on him. The court seems to have realized that its role is not only in promoting good, but also in avoiding evil.