Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BoA), in an analysis published this Monday in international newspapers such as El Economista, admits a barrel of Brent could surpass $ 100 a barrel this winter.
In addition to the possibility of cold weather, we must add the surprising slowness of supply (from the oil producers) due to the reaction to the growing demand for oil as a result of the economic recovery. Oil companies are postponing their investment decisions in the face of a somewhat uncertain future in which developed governments plan to curb their consumption of polluting energy in favor of renewable energy sources.
The report of the American bank claims that in its baseline scenario (the most likely) the price of Brent crude by the end of the year will be between $ 70 and $ 75, but admits that the bank sees “upside risks.”
“In line with this vision ($ 70 or $ 75), we are forecasting a deficit [oferta menor que a procura] in the coming months, this should support oil prices until the end of the year. However, a new wave of COVID-19, hysterics in the markets, the debt crisis in China or the return of Iranian oil barrels could lead to a drop in oil, “BoA experts explain.
“In fact, climate is quickly becoming the most important driver of energy markets. If the winter is much colder than usual, global oil demand could increase by another 1-2 million barrels per day. In such a scenario, the oil market deficit this winter could easily exceed 2 million barrels per day and reach our projected target of $ 100 per barrel, ”analysts say the American bank.
A barrel of Brent, the benchmark for Europe, will rise 1.06% today to $ 73.69, while oil from West Texas in the US will rise 1.41% to $ 70.70.
Oil prices “rose” strongly in the session on Monday, on the one hand, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) predicts that global oil thirst will surpass pre-pandemic levels in 2022 thanks to better vaccination rates and increased public confidence in managing the Covid-19 pandemic governments, which will stimulate the restoration of mobility, both nationally and internationally.
In its monthly report, OPEC raised its forecast for global oil demand for 2022 by almost one million barrels per day to 100.8 barrels per day, the highest level of demand since 2019, when it was 100.3 million barrels of oil. Thus, OPEC believes that the demand for black gold will recover above expectations within six months, which could be an additional impetus for the price of oil.
In August, OPEC’s daily production increased by 151,000 barrels to 26.76 million barrels per day.
Crude oil futures reflect the optimistic forecasts of OPEC and the outlook for the Bank of England, with the rise in prices for Brent crude (the benchmark in Europe) and West Texas (in the US) close to 2%.
