ANALYSIS – Bolsonaro creates “stress test” for institutions with allegations of falsification of election results

President Jair Bolsonaro in Brasilia

Eduardo Simoins

SAO PAULO (Reuters) – President Jair Bolsonaro is setting a “stress test” for Brazil’s democratic institutions with his unfounded accusations against the Brazilian electoral system and is expected to continue that version until next year’s presidential elections, according to political analysts polled by Reuters in Friday. …

At the same time, the president’s persistence in this fraudulent speech shows that both Bolsonaro and the government he heads are cornered by relying on rhetoric similar to that adopted on social media Thursday night, which in practice anticipates the possible speech. electoral defeat.

“Again, he (Bolsonaro) is anticipating this electoral process, says it is possible that the electoral process might not be recognized, which is the biggest challenge a democracy can face,” said Leonardo Barreto, political scientist and director of vector analysis. … Reuters.

“It generates an institutional stress test that applies to the entire electoral process and has, in the worst case, non-recognition of the result by a candidate who can have 30% of the vote. I think this is a very important event for the stability of the Brazilian political process, ”he added.

Despite the promise that he would provide evidence of e-voting fraud in the broadcast he made on Thursday, Bolsonaro not only failed to present it – stating in all letters that he had no evidence, but “evidence” – but also resorted to to unfounded allegations of violations that have circulated in the past and have been dismissed.

He also took the opportunity to draw a number of conclusions against the President of the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE), Luis Roberto Barroso, when he mentioned that he had contributed to the restoration of political rights by former President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva and would be interested in the PT victory, in another attack. on the judicial system, which has become permanent.

According to analysts polled by Reuters, Bolsonaro is turning his batteries against the Supreme Court (STF) at a time when he has a shield in the National Congress after backing the election of Arthur Lear (PP-AL) as president of the House. deputies and placing the leader of the center, Senator Ciro Nogueiro (PP-PI), at the head of the Civil Chamber.

He also appears to be veiled before the State Ministry, which has already nominated the Senate for the reappointment of the Republic’s Attorney General Augusto Aras, who is positioning himself in favor of the President, for a new two-year term. years.

“The best price for him today is to attack Supreme,” said Insper professor and political scientist Carlos Melo. “Where does he have no protection? In the Almighty. The Supreme Court does not require impeachment, the Supreme Court does not conduct an investigation, the Supreme Court does not have the tools to respond to the President of the Republic, as does the Chamber and how the RRT … he.

“BONE LINE”

Another important element pointed out by analysts of Bolsonaro’s strategy of focusing the fire on the judiciary, a power that has made several decisions contrary to the interests and wishes of the president, is to divert the attention of the richer part of Bolognaism by taking over the focus of the support he sought and received from figures criticized by him, such as parliamentarians of the center.

“This is a cunning tactic of a certain type of politician who always has an enemy,” said Melo, who, however, believes that the armor received by Bolsonaro is far from final.

In the case of Aras, this will depend on the position the attorney general takes when he is guaranteed his second term, which may have independence from Bolsonaro’s interests after being bypassed in the selection of a vacancy at STF. As far as the members of the center are concerned, this will depend on the government’s ability to maintain the flow of funds freed up to meet the political interests of the members of the group.

“This gives Bolsonar some protection while these resources are freed up. Once you get to the bone line, the center will not remain in the bone line, ”Melo said. “There are no politicians who accompany each other to the grave and throw themselves,” he added.

At the same time, Bolsonaro’s persistent tensions with the judiciary and an attempt to question the voting system more than a year before the elections – and given the likely defeat and his attempt to hold a print vote – cast a shadow on the country’s political stability.

“It is clear that Bolsonaro will do everything he can to stay in power, including pushing the rules of the game to the limit,” Creomar de Sousa, political consultant and CEO of Dharma Politics, told Reuters. “It looks like the president would like to create a little confusion. If this turmoil leads to an election victory, so much the better. If this turmoil results in him staying in power, so much the better, ”he said.

For Creomar, the big question is what support will be provided by members of the government of the armed forces who have made dubious statements about the observance of the rules of the democratic game in a possible episode of great instability.

“During the event, let’s see if these people will enjoy the support of those who are active? Whose side will the armed men be on? ”

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