Politics
The outlook for the world’s leading economies is improving, according to the OECD.
In a report released Wednesday, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development updated its forecast for global economic production this year, noting that while the decline is still “unprecedented in recent history,” the forecast has improved slightly since June.
But the agency, which represents the world’s largest economies, warned that serious divergences were hidden behind the headlines. While the OECD significantly raised its forecasts for 2020 for the United States and China and slightly improved the outlook for Europe, the OECD lowered its expectations for developing countries such as Mexico, Argentina, India, South Africa, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia.
OECD economists said the downgrade reflects “a prolonged spread of the virus, high levels of poverty and informality, and stricter containment measures over the long term.”
The OECD noted the earlier timing of the outbreak in the country and its ability to quickly bring it under control, as well as policies that paved the way for a rapid recovery in activity, citing, in particular, significant investment in infrastructure.
Meanwhile, according to the OECD, this year the South African economy may contract by 11.5%. The economies of Mexico and India are on track to contract 10.2%. This is worse than forecasts for in developed countries, with the exception of Italy, which, due to the strong impact of the virus, will decrease by 10.5%.
“Uncertainty Remains High”
The OECD has warned that its prospects are far from final, and much depends on the trajectory of the Covid-19 infection and the continued support from politicians. He added that the global economic recovery “lost some momentum in the summer months” after an initial surge in activity.
“There is now a recovery from the relaxation of stringent restrictions and resumption of activities, but uncertainty remains high and confidence is still fragile,” the agency said in a report.
Some of his assessments also depend on political assumptions that may not be true.
The agency expects the UK economy to contract 10.1% this year, slightly better than its latest estimate.
The OECD also expects US lawmakers to approve another stimulus package worth up to $ 1.5 trillion this fall, although negotiations have stalled. As the November elections approach, reaching agreement may be more difficult.
The group’s forecasts for a global economic recovery in 2021 are slightly lower than in June. OECD economists have made it clear that they see a long way ahead.
“In most countries, production at the end of 2021 is projected to remain lower than at the end of 2019 and significantly lower than projected before the pandemic, highlighting the risk of long-term costs associated with a pandemic,” the report said.
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Yesterday, financial agents evaluated the opposite decision of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) regarding the so-called secret budget. In addition, a decision was made by STF Minister Gilmar Méndez to issue an injunction that would exclude the Bolsa Família from the spending cap rule, with investors trying to understand how this measure would affect the processing of the transitional PEC in the Chamber of Deputies. Oh this PEC!!!!
Since he is an exchange investor, any reading that the budget will be exceeded or become more flexible will negatively affect the exchange market, whether through the PEC or in any other way. We will continue with volatility today.
Looking beyond, the US Central Bank (Fed), although slowing down the pace of monetary tightening at its December meeting, issued a tougher-than-expected statement warning that its fight against inflation was not yet over, raising fears that rising US interest rates will push the world’s largest economy into recession.
The currency market continues to react to political news. The voting on the PEC is saved for today. It is expected that it will indeed be reviewed to open the way tomorrow for discussions on the 2023 budget.
For today on the calendar we will have an index of consumer confidence in the eurozone. Good luck and good luck in business!!
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The former president of the Corinthians dreams of working for the CBF as a national team coordinator. He was consulted shortly after Lula’s election.
Former Corinthians president Andrés Sánchez was advised to take a position in the Ministry of Sports under the administration of Lula (PT). However, he ruled out a return to politics. dreams of taking over the coordination of CBF selectionHow do you know PURPOSE.
No formal invitation was made to the former Corinthian representative, only a consultation on a portfolio opportunity with the new federal government, which will be sworn in on January 1, 2023.
Andrés was the Federal MP for São Paulo from 2015 to 2019. At that time he was elected by the Workers’ Party. However, the football manager begs to stay in the sport, ruling out the possibility of getting involved in politics again.
Andrés Sanchez’s desire is to fill the position of CBF tackle coordinator, which should become vacant after the 2022 World Cup. Juninho Paulista fulfills this function in Brazil’s top football institution.
The former president of Corinthians was in Qatar to follow the World Cup along with other figures in Brazilian football. During his time in the country, he strengthened his ties with the top leadership of the CBF.
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The agreement was approved by a supermajority at a ministerial meeting of member states in Brussels, Belgium, after months of discussions about the best way to contain the rise in natural gas prices in the bloc caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. .
The value set by the countries is well below the proposal made by the European Commission, the EU’s executive body, in November: 275 EUR/MWh. However, the countries leading the cap campaign were in favor of an even lower limit, around 100 EUR/MWh.
Germany, always wary of price controls, voted in favor of 180 euros, while Austria and the Netherlands, also skeptical of the cap, abstained. Hungary, the most pro-Russian country in the EU, voted against.
The instrument will enter into force on 15 February, but only if natural gas prices on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange exceed 180 euros/MWh for three consecutive days. In addition, the difference compared to a number of global benchmarks should be more than 35 euros.
Italy, the EU’s biggest supporter of the ceiling, has claimed responsibility for the measure. “This is a victory for Italy, which believed and worked for us to reach this agreement,” Environment and Energy Minister Gilberto Picetto tweeted.
“This is a victory for Italian and European citizens who demand energy security,” he added.
Currently, the gas price in Amsterdam is around 110 EUR/MWh, which is already a reflection of the agreement in Brussels – in August the figure even broke the barrier of 340 EUR/MWh.
However, Russia has already threatened to stop exports to countries that adhere to the ceiling. (ANSA).
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