Following political news in Brazil without a minimal understanding of the interests behind it is like looking for north in a broken compass. The past week has been rich in news about political class movements that are not necessarily what they appear to be.

Beginning with Lula’s tour of Brazil, the photo of the president-elect with Federal Supreme Court (STF) ministers conveys the message that there is no grudge between him and some of his past tormentors.

Most of the Bolsonarist ministers – Xio Nunez Marquez and André Mendona – seemed quite pleased with the future chief executive. The same can be said about caresses by Crmen Lcia, Alexandre de Moraes, Edson Fachin, Lus Roberto Barroso and Rosa Weber. In 2018, everyone voted against a preventive habeas corpus that would save Lulu from prison.

This is not selfless forgiveness, but the pragmatism of an experienced politician. Lula considers herself unfair and attributes part of this injustice to the STF. Likewise, the ministers who judged him are unlikely to change their minds today. However, the president-elect knows the damage his government can suffer from a conflict with its neighbors in Trs Poderes Square.

This more rational view seems to contradict Lula’s emotional speech last Thursday against fiscal anchors rather than the need for social spending. Meirelles even said that Lula was “blurred”. This performance, added to the possibility of a Constitutional Amendment (PEC) that permanently removes social programs from the spending ceiling, crashed the stock market and sent the dollar up.

Perhaps this line is also not quite what it seems. Appointing someone who is highly technical and does not report to the Treasury Department could be a problem for the president-elect. Watching figures like Andre Lara Resende and Prsio Arida during the transition may have placed too much hope on how the economy is moving.

Bringing a name like former minister Guido Mantega into the transition and delivering this kind of speech could pave the way for a moderate PT name like Alexandre Padilla or Wellington Diaz to be received with relief rather than resistance.

During the same tour of Brazil, Lula visited Arthur Lear (PP-AL) at the official residence of the President of the Chamber of Deputies. At that meeting, a deal appears to have been made to guarantee a PEC that is based on a secret budget (perhaps a little less secret), while raising the ceiling from 100 billion reais to 175 reais. billion for the maintenance of social programs.

You can bet that after last week, if this agreement is actually implemented by both, Lula will no longer criticize the part of the budget controlled by Congress. This situation puts Lyra in the best possible position: she can turn her power over the budget into constitutional power and even open a channel with Lula’s new government. Who did not like this strengthening of the lyre, so it was his opponent in Alagoas Renan Calleiros (MDB-AL).

Renan, even being nominated by his party to the transitional group, criticized the PEC too much. He even gave statements to the newspapers that it would be a “barbershop.” In addition, Renan posted on social media that the constitutionalization of the secret budget is appalling because it shows a lack of commitment to fiscal policy. In fact, he’s terrified to see his archenemy rise in power and his son choke to death in the race for Senate President.

Although it is impossible to grasp all the interests behind the movements, the exercise alone is worth it. You even risk – sometimes – doing it right.