Of the 20 governors seeking re-election this year, 12 have already reached their goal in the first round (60% of candidates), 6 are still going to run in the second round (30%), and only 2 did not pass and failed. no more chance of being re-elected (10%).

This is a record for first-round re-election in the states (the previous record was in 2010, when 10 governors were re-elected without running in a second round, according to the O Globo newspaper).

20 governors tried to be re-elected:

• 12 have already passed in 1 round: AC, DF, GO, MA, MG, MT, PA, PR, RJ, RN, RR and TO
• 6 in the 2nd round: AL, AM, ES, PB, RO and RS
• 2 were defeated: SP and SC

Political scientist and Arko Advice analyst Carlos Borenstein says the gubernatorial election “shows very clearly a trend towards continuity in state contests.” In his opinion, “this trend can be explained by a number of factors”, but two stand out: the rejection of discourse against politics and the increase in government revenues.

“Return to normal life”

“The first [fator] is that the subversive elections we had in 2018 were very marked by a streak of victories – not only for Bolsonaro, who at the time held an anti-establishment narrative, but also for a number of governors who also followed that narrative,” he said. Borenstein.

The analysis was conducted during InfoMorning, a daily program InfoMoney which on Monday (3) focused on the results of the first round of elections (and its consequences). Watch the program in the video below.

“Now we have a change in this paradigm in 2022, a kind of return to normality,” the political scientist said. “The governors who won the elections in 2018 and are now running for re-election usually operate within traditional politics.”

Borenstein cited the example of Minas Gerais Governor Romeu Zema (Novo), who was re-elected in the first round with 56% of the valid votes. “Even Zema, in Minas, which at that time [2018] elected by speech against the traditional policy of renewal, he created a very strong arc of alliances.”

In addition, 3 other non-governor candidates were also elected in the first round but received the support of the current chief executive: Clecio Luis (Solidariadade) in Amapa, Elmano de Freitas (Portugal) in Ceara and Rafael Fonteles. (PT). ), in Piaui.

SP and SC are exceptions

The only candidates for re-election who are no longer running are the governors of Sao Paulo, Rodrigo Garcia (PSDB) and Santa Catarina, Carlos Moises (Republicans). In both cases, they were “victims” of the polarization between President and re-election candidate Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and former President Lula (PT).

Em Sao Paulo, incumbent governor and re-election candidate Rodrigo Garcia (PSDB) received 18.4% of the valid votes (4.3 million) and was beaten by Tarcisio Freitas (Republicans) who finished 1st with 42.3% (9.9 million) and Fernando Haddado. (PT), who had 35.7% (8.3 million). Tarcisio is a former infrastructure minister under Bolsonaro and Haddad, a former education minister under Lula, and a former mayor of São Paulo.

Em Saint CatherineGovernor and re-election candidate Carlos Moises (R-P), who was elected in 2018 on a wave of Bolsonaris with 71% of the valid votes, dropped out of the runoff with just 17,433 votes.

This year, Bolsonaro’s candidate in the state is Senator Jorginho Melu (PL), who received 38.6% of the vote (1.5 million) and won first place. Decio Lima (Portugal) was the second most voted with 17.4% (710k votes), slightly ahead of Moises who received 16.9% of the votes (693k).

6 governors in the 2nd round

The list of re-elected governors may increase even more because, in addition to the 12 governors who have already won, 6 more will fight in the second round on the 30th. (see controversy below, actors in bold).

• Alagoas: Paulo Dantas (MDB) 46.6% x 26.8% Rodrigo Cunha (Brazil Union)
• Amazonas: Wilson Lima (Union Brazil) 42.8% x 21% Eduardo Braga (MDB)
• Holy Spirit: Renato Casagrande (PSB) 46.9% x 38.5% manat (PL)
• Paraiba: Joao Azevedo (PSB) 39.6% x 23.9% Pedro Cunha Lima (PSDB)
• Rio Grande do Sul: Onyx Lorenzoni (Poland) 37.5% x 26.8% Eduardo Leite (PSDB)
• Rondonia: Colonel Marcos (Union of Brazil) 38.9% and 37% Marcos Rogerio (Poland)

All candidates for re-election, except Eduardo Leite (PSDB), in Rio Grande do Sul, finished the first round in the lead. Toucan is also the only one running for re-election without being in office, as he left the Piratini Palace in April to try to run for President of the Republic. But his party decided to support the candidacy of Simone Tebeta (MDB) in the race for the Palacio do Planalto.

The smallest advantage for second place was in Rondonia: Governor Coronel Marcos (União Brasil) received 38.9% of the valid vote, less than 2 percentage points ahead of Marcos Rogerio (PL) who had 37%.

Already Paraiba the difference was 15.7 percentage points, with incumbent Governor João Azevedo (PSB) receiving 39.6% of the valid votes, and in alagoas e no Holy Spirit the dispute almost ended on Sunday (2) as Paulo Dantas (MDB) and Renato Casagrande won over 46% of the vote.

The greatest distance was Amazonas: Governor Wilson Lima (União Brasil) received twice as many votes as runner-up Eduardo Braga (MDB). Lima received 42.8% of the valid votes against 21% for the former governor and former mayor of Manaus (21.8 percentage points difference).