World
How the United States unsuccessfully tried to convince the Europeans and Zelensky of the inevitability of an invasion | War in Ukraine
In the months leading up to the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, the United States never ceased to publicly warn of the possibility of a large-scale Russian intervention—at one point, the Ukrainian government itself asked Washington “not to provoke a panic.” As the newspaper now shows Washington PostThe White House knew about the invasion plan months before Vladimir Putin’s order, but failed to convince NATO members that an attack was imminent.
An American daily describes a meeting in the Oval Office in October 2021 between President Joe Biden, his deputy Kamala Harris and several military and diplomatic advisers. This session was just one of several on Ukraine last fall, but it stood out for the details of the information presented to the US president. Jake Sullivan, a national security adviser who turned from skepticism to concern about Russia’s intentions, was in charge of organizing the meeting.
Present were Secretary of State Anthony Blinken; Defense, Lloyd Austin; Chief of Interarms Staff General Mark A. Milley; and the director of the National Security Agency and the CIA. In response to Sullivan’s request for an overview of Russia’s plans, they explained to Biden that “intelligence information about plans The prompt actions of Vladimir Putin, coupled with the incessant mobilizations along the border with Ukraine, showed that everything is ready for a massive assault.
With access to “many points of Russian political leadership and the military and espionage apparatus”, US intelligence agencies knew that Putin’s “impressively audacious” military plan called for the occupation of almost the entire country and could “immediately threaten eastern flank of NATO or even destroy the post-World War II security architecture in Europe.”
According to the information, the Russians would move in from the north, from both sides of Kyiv, and the offensive would begin in the winter: “having formed pincers around the capital, Russian troops planned to take Kyiv within three to four days” and “special forces would find and would delete President Volodymyr Zelessky, killing him if necessary” to establish a friendly government. At the same time, they would have entered from the east towards the Dnieper, and the troops in the Crimea would have occupied the southern coast. After a pause for regrouping, they were to move west, along a north-south line, from Moldavia to Belarus – in the West there will remain “the Ukrainian state, which, according to Putin’s calculations, is inhabited by irreconcilable neo-Nazi-Russophobes.”
The findings included troop and weapon dispositions, operational strategy, and Putin-led increases in funding for “military contingency operations” and “formation of forces in reserve,” even to the detriment of other needs such as pandemic response. It wasn’t an exercise. And if Biden and his administration didn’t think the world would be on the brink of a new war at the end vertex which brought the two presidents together on June 16, took effect a month later, when Putin published his rehearsal “On the historical unity of Russians and Ukrainians”. In late August, as a precautionary measure, Biden authorized the shipment of $60 million worth of defensive weapons to Ukraine.
After the October meeting, Biden’s biggest challenge was convincing allies at a time when “NATO was far from speaking with one voice on how to deal with Moscow” and “US credibility was weak” following the devastating occupation of Iraq and the chaos. from withdrawal from Afghanistan. Later that month, at the G20 summit in Rome, Biden warned his closest allies, France, Britain and Germany. A few weeks later, Secret Service director Avril Haynes called in several members of NATO.
According to Mail, the majority reacted with great skepticism, with the exception of the UK and the Baltic countries. The Germans and the French feared political manipulation after previous US mistakes. In practice, Angela Merkel leaving the German government and Emmanuel Macronin the French presidential election campaign in April did not want to believe that Putin could do something so “irrational”.
In the months that followed, the Americans engaged in discussions and meetings to persuade various European countries while strengthening their military presence in Europe. But in the days leading up to the invasion, many still can’t believe what’s coming, including the French president, who on February 20 celebrated receiving Putin’s approval to meet with Biden. A few hours later Putin recognized officially self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk republics, less than four days before break into to Ukraine.
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World
Vladimir Putin has delayed the invasion of Ukraine at least three times.
Putin has repeatedly consulted with Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu about the invasion, Europa Press told Ukraine’s chief intelligence director Vadim Skibitsky.
According to Skibitsky, it was the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB), which is responsible for counterintelligence and espionage work, that put pressure on Gerasimov and other military agencies to agree to launch an offensive. .
However, according to the Ukrainian intelligence services, the FSB considered that by the end of February sufficient preparations had already been made to guarantee the success of the Russian Armed Forces in a lightning invasion.
However, according to Kyiv, the Russian General Staff provided the Russian troops with supplies and ammunition for only three days, hoping that the offensive would be swift and immediately successful.
The head of Ukrainian intelligence also emphasized the cooperation of local residents, who always provided the Ukrainian authorities with up-to-date information about the Russian army, such as the number of soldiers or the exact location of troops.
The military offensive launched on February 24 by Russia in Ukraine caused at least 6.5 million internally displaced persons and more than 7.8 million refugees to European countries, which is why the UN classifies this migration crisis as the worst in Europe since World War II (1939-1945). gg.). ).
At the moment, 17.7 million Ukrainians are in need of humanitarian assistance, and 9.3 million are in need of food aid and housing.
The UN has presented as confirmed 6,755 civilian deaths and 10,607 wounded since the beginning of the war, stressing that these figures are much lower than the real ones.
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World
Life sentence for former Swedish official for spying for Russia
A Stockholm court on Monday sentenced a former Swedish intelligence officer to life in prison for spying for Russia, and his brother to at least 12 years in prison. In what is considered one of the most serious cases in Swedish counterintelligence history, much of the trial took place behind closed doors in the name of national security.
According to the prosecution, it was Russian military intelligence, the GRU, who took advantage of the information provided by the two brothers between 2011 and their arrest at the end of 2021.
Peyman Kia, 42, has held many senior positions in the Swedish security apparatus, including the army and his country’s intelligence services (Säpo). His younger brother, Payam, 35, is accused of “participating in the planning” of the plot and of “managing contacts with Russia and the GRU, including passing on information and receiving financial rewards.”
Both men deny the charges, and their lawyers have demanded an acquittal on charges of “aggravated espionage,” according to the Swedish news agency TT.
The trial coincides with another case of alleged Russian espionage, with the arrest of the Russian-born couple in late November in a suburb of Stockholm by a police team arriving at dawn in a Blackhawk helicopter.
Research website Bellingcat identified them as Sergei Skvortsov and Elena Kulkova. The couple allegedly acted as sleeper agents for Moscow, having moved to Sweden in the late 1990s.
According to Swedish press reports, the couple ran companies specializing in the import and export of electronic components and industrial technology.
The man was again detained at the end of November for “illegal intelligence activities.” His partner, suspected of being an accomplice, has been released but remains under investigation.
According to Swedish authorities, the arrests are not related to the trial of the Kia brothers.
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World
Ukraine admitted that Russia may announce a general mobilization
“They can strengthen their positions. We understand that this can happen. At the same time, we do not rule out that they will announce a general mobilization,” Danilov said in an interview with the Ukrainska Pravda online publication.
Danilov believed that this mobilization would also be convened “to exterminate as many as possible” of Russian citizens, so that “they would no longer have any problems on their territory.”
In this sense, Danilov also reminded that Russia has not given up on securing control over Kyiv or the idea of the complete “destruction” of Ukraine. “We have to be ready for anything,” he said.
“I want everyone to understand that [os russos] they have not given up on the idea of destroying our nation. If they don’t have Kyiv in their hands, they won’t have anything in their hands, we must understand this,” continued Danilov, who also did not rule out that a new Russian offensive would come from “Belarus and other territories.” .
As such, Danilov praised the decision of many of its residents who chose to stay in the Ukrainian capital when the war broke out in order to defend the city.
“They expected that there would be panic, that people would run, that there would be nothing to protect Kyiv,” he added, referring to President Volodymyr Zelensky.
The military offensive launched on February 24 by Russia in Ukraine caused at least 6.5 million internally displaced persons and more than 7.8 million refugees to European countries, which is why the UN classifies this migration crisis as the worst in Europe since World War II (1939-1945). gg.). ).
At the moment, 17.7 million Ukrainians are in need of humanitarian assistance, and 9.3 million are in need of food aid and housing.
The Russian invasion, justified by Russian President Vladimir Putin on the need to “denazify” and demilitarize Ukraine for Russia’s security, was condemned by the international community at large, which responded by sending weapons to Ukraine and imposing political and economic sanctions on Russia.
The UN has presented as confirmed 6,755 civilian deaths and 10,607 wounded since the beginning of the war, stressing that these figures are much lower than the real ones.
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