Xi Jinping said on Thursday Joe Biden: “He who plays with fire dies burned. The US is expected to understand this.” The immediate context of the verdict is the unconfirmed news that the President of the Chamber of Deputies, Biden ally Nancy Pelosi will visit Taiwan in August. Biden himself said he was unaware of the status of these plans and had heard from military leaders that “this is not the best idea.”

Reserve military and civilian ultranationalists in China have suggested that Chinese warplanes prevent Pelosi from landing in Taipei, escort her plane, or at least fly over Taiwan, violating her airspace. The Chinese government has been less specific.

To analyze Xi’s reaction to this and other possible “provocations” from China’s perspective, one must take into account the political moment in China. Xi is working to secure a third five-year term. This is a bold move.

The two-term limit was introduced into the Constitution in 1982. Deng Xiaoping, after the injury of Mao Zedong, who insisted on remaining in power for the rest of his life. In 2018, at the request of Xi, the parliament lifted this restriction.

It is almost certain that Xi’s stay will be approved by the Communist Party Congress, a date yet to be officially announced but due to take place between October and November.

Inspired by Confucianism, according to which the provision of prosperity by the government is a sign of heavenly approval, the Chinese system is not democratic, but meritocratic. And 2022 is not the best year for Xi to postulate five more.

Your zero covid policy has been disastrous. A 0.4% growth in the second quarter is unsustainable by Chinese standards, which implicitly promise to lift 1 billion people out of poverty. More worrisome is the 5.7% decline in GDP in Shanghai, the country’s economic epicenter. On the political side, the city is a stronghold of former President Jiang Zemin, Xi’s rival, and would be especially punished for that.

Another miscalculation by Xi was the “borderless alliance” with Vladimir Putin, announced 20 days before the invasion of Ukraine. The strong international backlash has led analysts sympathetic to the regime to admit, in some cases publicly, that a rapprochement with Russia is hurting China.

Xi is repairing damage to contain instability. It has already held 16 rounds of talks with India, the main adversary, following border skirmishes in 2020. And it didn’t beat the October record of 56 Chinese aircraft incursions into Taiwan. Moderation should last until the end of the congress. After that, Xi should resume his plan to annex Taiwan. And this is likely to be the biggest source of global tension in the coming years.

HE STATE DESIGNator AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS ANALYST