World
Kremlin displeasure prompts leaders to demand more brutality in Ukraine, presidential successors already sought, independent body says
Three months after the start of the war in Ukraine, the mood among the Moscow elites escalated again. This is what happened “jellyfish”, an independent Russian media outlet expelled from the Russian Federation, citing sources familiar with movements within the Kremlin. In early March, these sources reported that Vladimir Putin’s decision to go to war “horrified” most senior Kremlin officials, including ministerial officials, who feared Western sanctions would ruin their careers. However, soon after this, the “wave of patriotic sentiment” overcame. In April, several prominent figures in Russian politics publicly stated that the goal was to fight “to the bitter end.”
However, three months later, pessimism again shook the Kremlin’s foundations. A source close to Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin’s office assures Meduza that “it won’t be possible to live like before” and that “development” has been suspended for the time being, despite the fact that trade with China and India is still ongoing. insured.
Kremlin officials no longer acknowledge that there is a possible scenario in which the Russian president ends a military offensive while maintaining a high approval rating in Russia. Some government officials have even discussed “dignified retreat” strategies since the first weeks of the invasion, but the authorities have not yet come to a conclusion.
widespread discontent
A source close to the Kremlin described the atmosphere of deep dissatisfaction among Russian elites with Putin’s decisions: “Hardly anyone is happy with Putin. Businessmen and many members of the cabinet are unhappy that the president started this war without thinking about the scale of the sanctions. A normal life with these sanctions becomes impossible.”
Two other sources familiar with the activities of the Putin government corroborated this analysis, as did two others with ties to the prime minister’s office.
Sources close to the Kremlin said that the opinion of the hawkists (the most popular policy among the Russian elite) is that since Russia was already involved in this war, it is impossible to “soften it now”. On the contrary, it is necessary to “go to the bottom” with “wide mobilization of military reserves and with the mindset to “play for victory”, preferably capturing even the Ukrainian capital Kyiv.
However, the Kremlin does not yet want to announce a total mobilization. In early April, sources familiar with Putin’s government domestic politics told Meduza that even Russians who say they support a “special military operation” in Ukraine don’t want to volunteer to fight.
Entrepreneurs’ concerns
The largest Russian businessmen are also dissatisfied with the actions of the Russian president and criticize him for not taking real steps towards peace. Economic hardships are increasing day by day. “The problems are already known and in the middle of summer they will appear everywhere: in transport, pharmacies and even agriculture. No one thought about the scale [das sanções]a source close to the government told Meduza, adding that no one in the Kremlin had calculated the consequences of a complete boycott of Russian oil and gas by European countries.
However, Vladimir Putin “doesn’t want to think about” the economic hardships that are “obvious to most of the country’s authorities” and remains “particularly reluctant to link these problems to the war in Ukraine,” two Kremlin-connected sources said. “Jellyfish”.
Putin has already expressed this idea publicly. The Russian leader told the head of the administration of the Kaliningrad region not to blame the war for problems with the supply of the region: “There is no need in this case to connect this with our special operation. They also had a recession in 2020. and 2021, with a marked decline in construction. The military operation in Donbas has absolutely nothing to do with it.”
discuss succession
Kremlin and federal government sources listened to by Meduza say there is increasing talk among the Russian elite about a “post-Putin future.” “It’s not that they want to overthrow Putin now, or they are organizing a conspiracy, but there is an understanding or desire that he will not rule the state, perhaps in the near future,” one of the sources explained. “The president screwed up, but he can still fix it by coming to some kind of agreement [com a Ucrânia e o Ocidente]”, says another source, acknowledging that some Kremlin officials are secretly discussing possible successors to Putin, one of the leaders of the cabinet, Sergei Kiriyenko.
Sergei Kiriyenko had regular talks with Putin about the economy and the Donbass. Despite the fact that the former Russian prime minister is named as one of Putin’s hypothetical successors, sources intercepted by Meduza show that Russian elites admit that only a serious health problem can remove Putin from office. A source connected with the Moscow government illustrates the position of those around the Russian leader more clearly: “People are disgusted, but they still keep their jobs, and they are helping the country to plunge even more into war.”
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World
Vladimir Putin has delayed the invasion of Ukraine at least three times.
Putin has repeatedly consulted with Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu about the invasion, Europa Press told Ukraine’s chief intelligence director Vadim Skibitsky.
According to Skibitsky, it was the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB), which is responsible for counterintelligence and espionage work, that put pressure on Gerasimov and other military agencies to agree to launch an offensive. .
However, according to the Ukrainian intelligence services, the FSB considered that by the end of February sufficient preparations had already been made to guarantee the success of the Russian Armed Forces in a lightning invasion.
However, according to Kyiv, the Russian General Staff provided the Russian troops with supplies and ammunition for only three days, hoping that the offensive would be swift and immediately successful.
The head of Ukrainian intelligence also emphasized the cooperation of local residents, who always provided the Ukrainian authorities with up-to-date information about the Russian army, such as the number of soldiers or the exact location of troops.
The military offensive launched on February 24 by Russia in Ukraine caused at least 6.5 million internally displaced persons and more than 7.8 million refugees to European countries, which is why the UN classifies this migration crisis as the worst in Europe since World War II (1939-1945). gg.). ).
At the moment, 17.7 million Ukrainians are in need of humanitarian assistance, and 9.3 million are in need of food aid and housing.
The UN has presented as confirmed 6,755 civilian deaths and 10,607 wounded since the beginning of the war, stressing that these figures are much lower than the real ones.
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World
Life sentence for former Swedish official for spying for Russia
A Stockholm court on Monday sentenced a former Swedish intelligence officer to life in prison for spying for Russia, and his brother to at least 12 years in prison. In what is considered one of the most serious cases in Swedish counterintelligence history, much of the trial took place behind closed doors in the name of national security.
According to the prosecution, it was Russian military intelligence, the GRU, who took advantage of the information provided by the two brothers between 2011 and their arrest at the end of 2021.
Peyman Kia, 42, has held many senior positions in the Swedish security apparatus, including the army and his country’s intelligence services (Säpo). His younger brother, Payam, 35, is accused of “participating in the planning” of the plot and of “managing contacts with Russia and the GRU, including passing on information and receiving financial rewards.”
Both men deny the charges, and their lawyers have demanded an acquittal on charges of “aggravated espionage,” according to the Swedish news agency TT.
The trial coincides with another case of alleged Russian espionage, with the arrest of the Russian-born couple in late November in a suburb of Stockholm by a police team arriving at dawn in a Blackhawk helicopter.
Research website Bellingcat identified them as Sergei Skvortsov and Elena Kulkova. The couple allegedly acted as sleeper agents for Moscow, having moved to Sweden in the late 1990s.
According to Swedish press reports, the couple ran companies specializing in the import and export of electronic components and industrial technology.
The man was again detained at the end of November for “illegal intelligence activities.” His partner, suspected of being an accomplice, has been released but remains under investigation.
According to Swedish authorities, the arrests are not related to the trial of the Kia brothers.
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World
Ukraine admitted that Russia may announce a general mobilization
“They can strengthen their positions. We understand that this can happen. At the same time, we do not rule out that they will announce a general mobilization,” Danilov said in an interview with the Ukrainska Pravda online publication.
Danilov believed that this mobilization would also be convened “to exterminate as many as possible” of Russian citizens, so that “they would no longer have any problems on their territory.”
In this sense, Danilov also reminded that Russia has not given up on securing control over Kyiv or the idea of the complete “destruction” of Ukraine. “We have to be ready for anything,” he said.
“I want everyone to understand that [os russos] they have not given up on the idea of destroying our nation. If they don’t have Kyiv in their hands, they won’t have anything in their hands, we must understand this,” continued Danilov, who also did not rule out that a new Russian offensive would come from “Belarus and other territories.” .
As such, Danilov praised the decision of many of its residents who chose to stay in the Ukrainian capital when the war broke out in order to defend the city.
“They expected that there would be panic, that people would run, that there would be nothing to protect Kyiv,” he added, referring to President Volodymyr Zelensky.
The military offensive launched on February 24 by Russia in Ukraine caused at least 6.5 million internally displaced persons and more than 7.8 million refugees to European countries, which is why the UN classifies this migration crisis as the worst in Europe since World War II (1939-1945). gg.). ).
At the moment, 17.7 million Ukrainians are in need of humanitarian assistance, and 9.3 million are in need of food aid and housing.
The Russian invasion, justified by Russian President Vladimir Putin on the need to “denazify” and demilitarize Ukraine for Russia’s security, was condemned by the international community at large, which responded by sending weapons to Ukraine and imposing political and economic sanctions on Russia.
The UN has presented as confirmed 6,755 civilian deaths and 10,607 wounded since the beginning of the war, stressing that these figures are much lower than the real ones.
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