Politics
The recessive environment will continue due to inflation and political stress created by Bolsonaro | Miriam Piglet
(Miriam Leitao and Alvaro Griebel)
The country has entered a technical recession, which this blog has warned about in subsequent publications. The -0.1% data and the second-quarter revision to -0.4 add up to two negative quarters, which is technically a recession. Feels more stagnant than deep recession, but this environment is likely to continue as industry indicators for the fourth quarter are performing poorly.
“I do not exclude another negative result in the fourth quarter,” said economist Sergio Vale of MB Associados.
What is a tech downturn and where is the Brazilian economy heading
The economy has suffered from inflation and the tense institutional environment created by the state. Let us remind you that the month of September, the last month of this quarter, the results of which were published today, began with a week of an extremely difficult crisis caused by the coups of the president of the republic. The economy, which had not developed this quarter, felt it, and the dollar was the clearest channel of data transmission. This, in turn, contributed to the already growing inflation. The economy has received reports of the riots created by the president, this is one of them.
There is an aggravating factor: interest rates started to rise more strongly after this third quarter, which is another sign that the negative environment should continue. Selich started to rise in March, but from a very low level. In June, it was at 4.25%. will end the year above 9%. And as the effect of interest rates intensifies over time, it is now that the economy will begin to feel the tightening of monetary policy.
Some economists were expecting this result, but a few months ago the third quarter was expected to be the best of the year as the economy responds to falling pressures from the pandemic and will be pulled back by resuming services. The service sector had a positive result this quarter, but the economy as a whole is plagued by high inflation and political and financial uncertainty created by the government.
In the future, expectations remain negative, in addition to the risk of a recession for another quarter, forecasts for 2022 refer to a stagnant country. In MB, the rate remains zero. In Itau, it remains at -0.5.
– October and November came out with very bad data, which will jeopardize the GDP of the fourth quarter. This quarter we should have worse results in industry and services than in agribusiness, and ultimately GDP should grow by only 0.1% on a margin, ”said Sergio Vale.
The year that saw a V-shaped recovery from last year’s fall ends with a return to stagnation and a scenario for next year that will maintain that climate next year.
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Yesterday, financial agents evaluated the opposite decision of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) regarding the so-called secret budget. In addition, a decision was made by STF Minister Gilmar Méndez to issue an injunction that would exclude the Bolsa Família from the spending cap rule, with investors trying to understand how this measure would affect the processing of the transitional PEC in the Chamber of Deputies. Oh this PEC!!!!
Since he is an exchange investor, any reading that the budget will be exceeded or become more flexible will negatively affect the exchange market, whether through the PEC or in any other way. We will continue with volatility today.
Looking beyond, the US Central Bank (Fed), although slowing down the pace of monetary tightening at its December meeting, issued a tougher-than-expected statement warning that its fight against inflation was not yet over, raising fears that rising US interest rates will push the world’s largest economy into recession.
The currency market continues to react to political news. The voting on the PEC is saved for today. It is expected that it will indeed be reviewed to open the way tomorrow for discussions on the 2023 budget.
For today on the calendar we will have an index of consumer confidence in the eurozone. Good luck and good luck in business!!
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The former president of the Corinthians dreams of working for the CBF as a national team coordinator. He was consulted shortly after Lula’s election.
Former Corinthians president Andrés Sánchez was advised to take a position in the Ministry of Sports under the administration of Lula (PT). However, he ruled out a return to politics. dreams of taking over the coordination of CBF selectionHow do you know PURPOSE.
No formal invitation was made to the former Corinthian representative, only a consultation on a portfolio opportunity with the new federal government, which will be sworn in on January 1, 2023.
Andrés was the Federal MP for São Paulo from 2015 to 2019. At that time he was elected by the Workers’ Party. However, the football manager begs to stay in the sport, ruling out the possibility of getting involved in politics again.
Andrés Sanchez’s desire is to fill the position of CBF tackle coordinator, which should become vacant after the 2022 World Cup. Juninho Paulista fulfills this function in Brazil’s top football institution.
The former president of Corinthians was in Qatar to follow the World Cup along with other figures in Brazilian football. During his time in the country, he strengthened his ties with the top leadership of the CBF.
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The agreement was approved by a supermajority at a ministerial meeting of member states in Brussels, Belgium, after months of discussions about the best way to contain the rise in natural gas prices in the bloc caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. .
The value set by the countries is well below the proposal made by the European Commission, the EU’s executive body, in November: 275 EUR/MWh. However, the countries leading the cap campaign were in favor of an even lower limit, around 100 EUR/MWh.
Germany, always wary of price controls, voted in favor of 180 euros, while Austria and the Netherlands, also skeptical of the cap, abstained. Hungary, the most pro-Russian country in the EU, voted against.
The instrument will enter into force on 15 February, but only if natural gas prices on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange exceed 180 euros/MWh for three consecutive days. In addition, the difference compared to a number of global benchmarks should be more than 35 euros.
Italy, the EU’s biggest supporter of the ceiling, has claimed responsibility for the measure. “This is a victory for Italy, which believed and worked for us to reach this agreement,” Environment and Energy Minister Gilberto Picetto tweeted.
“This is a victory for Italian and European citizens who demand energy security,” he added.
Currently, the gas price in Amsterdam is around 110 EUR/MWh, which is already a reflection of the agreement in Brussels – in August the figure even broke the barrier of 340 EUR/MWh.
However, Russia has already threatened to stop exports to countries that adhere to the ceiling. (ANSA).
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