After the fall of the state budget (OE), the right-wing rushed to celebrate the alleged end of the invention. I understand that I share the enthusiasm, but I would recommend that they curb their temper a little. It is too early to declare the death of socialist rule, and even more premature to begin celebrating the return of the right to government. Moreover, the past few months have been full of political surprises. Few believed that Moeda would defeat the Lisbon City Council, and many thought that this crisis on the left around the OE would be just another theatrical coup that we have become accustomed to witnessing in recent years. The moments in which we live require caution. Let’s see:

1. We should not yet take the dissolution of the Assembly of the Republic for granted. It is true that this intention has been stated by Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa more than once if the OE fails, and this is unlikely to elude his words. However, we also know, and the President of the Republic himself has already demonstrated that he will do everything to avoid elections, a scenario that does not bother him. Will the rabbits stay in the hat he wants to pull out at the last minute? Will this give the Government an opportunity to present a new State Budget? Will he leave Antonio Costa in charge of the twelfth?
2. The elections are likely to change little in the current geometry of parliament. PS can win again, having formed an absolute majority with the rest of the Left (myself, of course, PAN). A likely scenario that will lead to a situation of difficult manageability: if the same participants (Antonio Costa, Catarina Martins and Jeronimo de Sousa) do not understand each other within the framework of the state budget for 2022, they are unlikely to understand each other again, especially after the elections to the legislature, where each of them will try to blame the remaining partners of the lead OE.
3. Although unlikely, IP may even be strengthened in the next elections. The voices they play to PSD can be offset by an increase in useful voices to the left, coming from those who blame BE and PCP for the fall in stealth. The stronger PS would have had different conditions for negotiations and would have remained in the government.
4. The current context may give strength to PS’s most radical wing: Pedro Nuno Santos. While he was the protagonist of the negotiations on the left, he ensured the stability of the tripartite alliance. Will Antonio Costa, even reluctantly, be able to give him the negotiation stage again and revive the invention? Eeven if it doesn’t, Pedro Nuno Santos (and the wing he represents) will emerge reinforced from this crisis with the left, which is bad news for those fighting against socialist hegemony and, above all, against the ideological fanaticism of this more radical faction. therefore contrary to private initiative and market economy.
5. Even if the SDP surprises and wins the elections, the right is unlikely to have an absolute majority, so creating a non-socialist government can be very difficult. Unless we are in for a big surprise …
6. Imposing legislative power on the internal elections of the two parties on the right will drain the respective winners. and Rui Rio he wears a soft rabbit skin as opposed to PS, in the inner struggle of PSD he becomes a ferocious animal. Rangel might even win, but without Rui Rio try to promote and discredit it in all directions. Marketing pre-legal unattractive to Rangel. As for CDs … OKThe scene is even darker.
7. In the next elections, only two parties will be clear winners: Chega and IL. If, on the one hand, growth THE this will be positive for the non-socialist space; on the other hand, the growth of Chega will determine the return (and stability) of democratic rights to the government. According to Chega, the scenario is ideal for the transition to legislation, it will benefit more than ever from the current political context: an emaciated left that does not understand and cannot govern; the largest opposition party, which does not find stability and continues to publicly wash dirty clothes; CDS in the process of decay; eOn top of all this comes Chega’s antisystemic narrative, demonstrating that all “systemic” solutions have failed, the only viable solution being growth.
8. Antonio Costa is the most skillful and intelligent politician to date. We can suggest several scenarios, but he probably himself has already evaluated all these hypotheses and a few more. Let’s see if we are surprised by another magical blow from Antonio Costa. At the same time, there is still the possibility that the incumbent prime minister will shift from suitcases and luggage to some European position he desires, leading to further mixing of accounts.

Let’s be careful. This soap opera has just begun and its outcome is difficult to foresee.