Ibovespa ignores the rally in US stock exchanges this morning and continues to hit its lows, already operating in a 126,000 range. The fall is almost typical for the sectoral indices of the Brazilian Stock Exchange. The exception is metal (maximum 1.43%). Stocks in the metal goods segment surged even after falling nearly 3% in iron ore prices in China, of which Vale stands out (1.30% high).

Inside the company, experts cite some of the variables behind this departure from Ibovespa, the main one being political, in addition to the still poorly received proposal for a second round of tax reform.

“Many people think that the reform will not work, but in the end it is annoying, given the expectation of taxation of dividends among other measures of the project. If in doubt, the investor sells, ”the operator was quoted as adding pressure to the electricity sector on the day the National Electricity Agency (Aneel) publishes a new tariff with a red flag. “Despite the lower-than-expected IGP-M, inflation is worrying, and rationing concerns are still in sight,” he says.

Outside, despite the spread of the contagious delta variant of the coronavirus globally, stocks are rallying after positive data on confidence in Europe and upbeat expectations for US employment data this week.

The modest tone is also reflected in the dollar, which is appreciating against the real, despite the Treasury’s announcement of the reopening of the 2050 global issue in a new issue abroad, which analysts see as positive.

“We had better than expected data on confidence in Europe, but on the other hand, there are concerns about the global spread of the delta variant. However, in terms of indicators, the morning is weaker, and it should even heat up tomorrow due to the disclosure of job creation in the private sector in the US ADP, ”describes Cassio Bambirra, partner and head of trading at One Investimentos.

The investor is awaiting the determination of the red flag 2 adjustment value for electricity, which should become more expensive in the context of the critical state of the country’s reservoirs, which puts new pressure on inflation and, mainly, on actions in the electricity and consumption sector.

In addition, sector B3 does not like the Interim measure, which proposes, for example, to transfer to the federal government the definition of individual actions that could negatively affect the lakes in tourist regions or the operation of waterways. The measure is one of those announced yesterday by Mines and Energy Minister Bento Albuquerque in an official radio and television announcement in the face of the water crisis.

Despite concerns about inflationary pressures in Brazil, Bambirra believes IGP-M for June (0.60% versus 4.1% in May, lower than in the same month of 2020). “Many analysts attribute the slowdown to the dollar exchange rate below 5.00 reais. This is a relief despite the water crisis, but there is an inflationary risk, ”he says.

According to Bambirra, the proposed increase in income and dividend taxation, which is part of the second phase of the tax reform project, continues to worry investors, despite reports that the rate could be 15%, but not more than 20%. “We’ve seen real estate stocks fall, but the consumer sector can benefit from income tax exemptions for lower purchasing power households who, by paying less, can channel some of those resources into consumption,” he estimates.

In the case of domestic politics, the investor is on the lookout for allegations of corruption in Covaxin purchases. Judge Rosa Weber of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) has filed with the Attorney General’s Office (PGR) a crime report filed by CPI Covid senators, who are asking for an investigation into President Jair Bolsonaro on malfeasance charges. including the purchase of an Indian vaccine.

At 11:04 am Ibovespa’s yield was 0.65% at 126,598.74 points, after a low of 126,526.92 points and a high of 127,507.18 points.

By time: after leaving on the 23rd, the flow of foreigners on the B3 was positive at 682 million reais last Friday, the 25th, when Ibovespa fell 1.74% to 127,255.61 points.

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