“In general, if we have about 30% of the population on the right and 30% on the left, closed, which will not change the sides, the remaining 40% will go to the middle. Thus, no matter who the candidates are, the center will have a commitment to provide direction for the weigh-in. Without this social contract, one of the extremes, it will be very difficult to win elections. Whoever does it with greater transparency and efficiency will do it, ”he commented at the end of the CEO Conference, an annual event held by BTG.

Estevez noted that polls now point to a polarization between Lula and Bolsonaro, but said it is too early and that there are several qualified candidates at the center of the political spectrum. According to him, the governor of São Paulo – currently João Doria – is always a natural candidate for the presidency. The executive also quoted Gaucho Governor Eduardo Leite, a young man who did a good job of running.

“After the election of Lula, the Dilma government, impeachment, the presidency of Temer and Bolsonaro, the Brazilian economy began to talk about the disease. I don’t think there is any disease. The alternation of forces is healthy. We have a vibrant, vibrant, active economy that will deliver the product that society is looking for at the moment. ”

Estevez praised the work of the Congress, which, in his opinion, was very productive. According to him, privatization and administrative reform enjoy the support of society, and sometimes it is necessary to remind politicians of this.

In the case of tax reform, there are many conflicting legitimate interests, and therefore he argues that they should be cut. “Brazil has the highest tax burden among developing countries, there is no easy way to increase the collection. You cannot imagine that it is possible to raise the tax on banks a little more, because it burdens and suffocates the whole society, ”he commented.

According to him, even if the tax reform is cut, at best it will not affect the tax burden, that is, it will not increase the total amount of taxes. Estevez said that while no one knows what the tax reform proposal will be, one possible topic would be dividend taxation and corporate tax cuts, which he agreed with. Another option is to create a value added tax (VAT) that combines multiple taxes. “It is useless to be too ambitious, otherwise legitimate debate will keep you from going.”

Estevez said that despite Governments A or B, Brazil has made headway in recent years and should continue to do so for decades to come. “In the next 30 years, I think there will be the same dynamics. It will be difficult to say that Brazil worked, and it will be difficult to say that it went wrong. But I think it will not be difficult to say that we are moving forward by leaps and bounds, but we are moving forward. “

According to him, even in the face of the pandemic, Brazil has moved forward, which Estevez explains as “an impartial, apolitical conquest of rationality.” The executive director said he welcomes dialogue between the manufacturing sector and the political world, and said one of the reasons Venezuela is in the current situation is because the country has been abandoned by its elites. “Here in Brazil we will not let this happen, I think we have enough private business structure. Interaction with the political world removes obstacles, prejudices, and helps. “

A BTG partner said that the financial situation this year will be better than many expected, and that some of the expectations are relatively easy to resolve. “Uncertainty creates fear of the future. Brazil has reached its limit in the fight against the pandemic, but we have managed to convey something to society. ” Economics Minister Paulo Gedes made “heroic” efforts to defend common sense and rationality in the financial sector, he said.

As for the external scenario, Estevez said the Biden government was surprised by the shift to the left and exaggerated the stimulus package. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is deliberately classifying the current inflationary pressures as temporary, and this whole situation could cause a collapse in the American economy. “This risk is unlikely, the chances are less than 50%, but it is possible and must be taken very seriously.”

He also commented on the relationship between the United States and China and said that whenever a new country becomes a major world power, there is a moment of instability. In the past, this may have meant the outbreak of wars, but now it has most likely resulted in economic and geopolitical uncertainty. “I don’t see an easy solution. I think that in the next decade it will be a constant source of instability. ”

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