Politics
35 districts are at risk. When limited in office, 40% of the chambers change the party.
“Here [nas autarquias onde a lei impede a continuação do presidente de câmara] the biggest bids are being made, strong candidates so that the municipality does not lose. They are always considered advice from the risk group. If we do not do this, we will fall into the logic of changes, and this may remove the party in the event of a defeat scenario from the leadership of the House for four, eight or even 12 years, ”says the Secretary General of the SDP.
Social Democrat José Silvano’s explanation is supported by a recent study of recent municipal electoral cycles, in particular the one that was “affected” by the introduction of a term-limiting law.
In 2013, out of 160 municipalities whose mayors “could not be re-elected for a new term” due to the introduction of the law on limiting the terms of office, 107 municipalities “retained the continuity” of the political party with “54.2% of presidents elected by the PCP, BE and PS “. In 53 municipalities, a “bipartisan dynamic” persisted between “the two parties with the highest electoral expression (PS and PSD)”.
That year, only 33.4% of mayors were re-elected.
These municipalities have one thing in common. “66% of the population demographically was characterized by an aging population, the rest, living on the coast and consisting mainly of young and adults, there is a strong connection with the political party, so that its voters vote in the majority for the party, regardless of the candidate nominated.”
In 2017, a law restricting the powers of local authorities, which only applies to the mayor, stopped 41 re-nominations, which is more than 63% in the north and center of the country. The introduction of the law “brought about changes” in 17 municipalities: seven from PSD, five from PS, four from PCP and one led by independents.
Otherwise, in those where the “continuity of the established power” was recorded, there was a general drop – fewer votes – in support of the winning party.
“The more densely located municipalities (namely those located on the coast of Portugal and which are characterized as urbanized areas), the less likely their local officials will be re-elected. and which are characterized by rural areas), as a rule, prefer the succession of the incumbent [presidente de câmara]”, the study says.
In 2017, according to the dissertation of Mariana Bravo Madeira, MSc in Administration and Public Administration, led by Teresa Ruel, currently Professor of Political Science at ISCSP-UL, “The election results show that voters used their perceptions of economic performance to hold the incumbent to account. [presidentes de câmara]… But this is not a direct effect of the electoral cycle, that is, an electoral break in the political cycle. [período da troika] in the Economic Assessment of Portuguese Voters in Local Elections “.
Another warning sign in the parties, the loss of chambers with the departure of the president due to the term limit increased from 2013 (33%) to 2017 (41%). Changing the “political game” already suggests redoubled caution on the part of the 2025 municipal authorities. ” Of the 233 mayors re-elected in 2017, 145 (62.7%) have fulfilled their second municipal mandate in the current political cycle (2018–2021). ) “. In 2025 they will leave.
Now in 2021, 18 socialist chambers are at this “risk level” (Castelo de Paiva, Aljustrell, Mertola, Odemira, Barcelos, Miranda do Corvo, Gois, Oliveira do Hospital, Penacova, Regengos de Monsaras , Viana do Alentejo, Seia., Alcanena, Viana do Castelo, Mesan Cold, Moymenta da Beira, Santa Cruz da Graciosa and Lajes do Pico – there were 34, but only 18 mayors are in office); 13 PSD (Espinho, Celorico de Bastu, Vila Verde, Sertan, Pampillosa da Serra, Monchique, Sabugal, Vila Nova de Foz Coa, Alcobasa, Arrons, Ferreira do Zezere, Penedona and Vila do- Porto); three from PKP (Mora, Alpiarsa and Setubal); and one from CDS (Ponte de Lima).
The Secretary General of the SDP explains that in these cases “we conduct opinion research, information is collected from local, municipal and regional structures in order to prepare a replacement for the outgoing president.”
“Usually these issues begin to be analyzed a year or two earlier, but this is where internal conflicts and disagreements arise. Almost always, conflicts with the national leadership arise here, at this moment. Local structures are arguing, they say. “They don’t believe in polls that are poorly conducted, that they are the only ones in the field who know that there is a better candidate from the country,” he says.
Jose Silvano says he is dealing with these problems normally because he “understands that there is also a loss of established local authority here, which is very important for those who are there and do not want change.”
There is also “a conservative, masculine trait, the original party trait, a tradition that takes a long time to change, which, for example, makes it easier for the PS, who started this path earlier, to bring women to the market.” local government leadership, ”he says.
Jose Luis Carneiro, Deputy Secretary General for Socialists, believes that in these “Risk Tips” “the task is more difficult” and that “people with proven evidence are needed. In professional, social and political life. People who have chosen the chosen path. in the service of the population, guided by and proving their honesty. “
How to choose? “Different methodologies and different tools are used. Opinion research is an important tool. Internal assessment combined with the opinions of people and institutions with high profile in society (…), with a credible and sustainable development project based on dialogue and confirmed by people, you can safely guarantee this change. “
For the PS Assistant Secretary General, the determination of the municipality at risk, even in these cases, depends on several factors. “Socio-political profile of the municipality. The nature of the candidate. Whether it comes from an active municipal group, or whether it comes from a civil society unrelated to the current political project. The quality of the opposition. Thus, a local and district assessment is carried out. And there are times when the assessment is also of a national nature ”.
Jorge Cordeiro, Member of the Political Commission and Secretariat of the PCP, summarizes the problem in one sentence, criticizing the law that the PCP has always challenged: “Time limits, disproportionate imposition and violation of fundamental rights are expressed in three municipalities under the CDU (Mora, Setubal and Alpiarsa). In these municipalities, as in others in the previous mandate, candidates will be guaranteed to guarantee the continuation of the CDU, which was confirmed with the support of the population. “
“Political rights can and should be exercised regardless of the restrictions imposed by terms of office. This was the case with the candidates from the CDU in 2013, and now in 2021, ”he assures.
Francisco Tavares, general secretary of CDS, a party that has only one camera in this situation, admits that “this poses a problem for the ruling party because it is an opportunity for the opposition to gamble on weakening who is in it.”
“If the proposal to voters is not consistent, a serious problem is created. Hence, the succession must be prepared on time, at least one year in advance. But there is always the advantage that the population is satisfied with the work of the party and wanting continuity, ”he says.
And what about Ponte de Lima? “Are you asking me if Victor Fernandez will continue to be an excellent president? Of course he will. He did a great job. But are we going to get lost, get lost? Of course not. Vasco Ferras [candidato que era vereador na câmara] he is a well-known and recognized person. Our stake is definitely on the continuation of the work done. “
“This is a two-sided issue, as if it were a coin, we must always look at this issue from two sides: being in opposition and in power. And what is the result? Voters decide this is democracy in action. “, he says.
Teresa Ruelle, professor of political science at ISCSP-UL, believes that “this warning makes intuitive sense – in relation to municipalities in danger – from the electoral point of view of parties, even because upon careful reading, studying public opinion, they end up as a result, they end up with a better vision of local reality. “
Filipe Teles, professor of political science at the University of Aveiro, perceives the “happy but inner expression of the parties” because the law came to stop “the phenomenon of party stability, based on the figure of the mayor, to limit the mechanisms of support, the influence of networks. this facilitated the next election. Basically, benefit from a track record. “
“And pay attention,” says the investigator, “at the end of the third term, and this is being studied, the works and inaugurations … decreased.”
“The main virtue of the law was to prevent the dominance of one person. Until 2013, Portugal maintained the stability of parties and elected representatives in local government. A law was needed here, which is not in many European countries, there is not much with this restriction, because there is a more natural rotation. Different electoral systems, less executive, more deliberative, more coalitional and even different democratic cultures allow for natural alternation, ”he says.
What has changed over the years? Teresa Ruel believes that “it is premature to take stock in terms of governance or the quality of local governance by introducing a legal barrier limiting the mayor’s term of office. We know that in 2013, 160 mayors in power were unable to exercise their powers. new term. [foram 41 em 2017]other political actors received the status of a municipal summit, but this in itself does not tell us that they are in fact “new politicians” (they can be vice presidents, councilors or party personnel of local structures) who continued the existing governance by replacing mayor “.
The purpose of the law is one thing, the result of its application is another. “The idea of the law is to effectively neutralize the execution of public office, allow the renewal of local political elites and thus guarantee the renewal of teams, projects, visions and perspectives for the territories and relevant groups of the population, regardless of the political party”, but not even ” it is obvious “that the law actually created a significant alternation of party colors. A trip to a neighboring constituency or a change of party are common loopholes.
“There was some dynamics in the territory, for example, the holders of political power in a certain municipality with limited powers, who competed in the municipality in the neighborhood (since the law limits powers only in the municipality in which they exercise power as of 2013.) or municipalities, in which the candidate changed the party from which he ran, ”he recalls.
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Yesterday, financial agents evaluated the opposite decision of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) regarding the so-called secret budget. In addition, a decision was made by STF Minister Gilmar Méndez to issue an injunction that would exclude the Bolsa Família from the spending cap rule, with investors trying to understand how this measure would affect the processing of the transitional PEC in the Chamber of Deputies. Oh this PEC!!!!
Since he is an exchange investor, any reading that the budget will be exceeded or become more flexible will negatively affect the exchange market, whether through the PEC or in any other way. We will continue with volatility today.
Looking beyond, the US Central Bank (Fed), although slowing down the pace of monetary tightening at its December meeting, issued a tougher-than-expected statement warning that its fight against inflation was not yet over, raising fears that rising US interest rates will push the world’s largest economy into recession.
The currency market continues to react to political news. The voting on the PEC is saved for today. It is expected that it will indeed be reviewed to open the way tomorrow for discussions on the 2023 budget.
For today on the calendar we will have an index of consumer confidence in the eurozone. Good luck and good luck in business!!
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The former president of the Corinthians dreams of working for the CBF as a national team coordinator. He was consulted shortly after Lula’s election.
Former Corinthians president Andrés Sánchez was advised to take a position in the Ministry of Sports under the administration of Lula (PT). However, he ruled out a return to politics. dreams of taking over the coordination of CBF selectionHow do you know PURPOSE.
No formal invitation was made to the former Corinthian representative, only a consultation on a portfolio opportunity with the new federal government, which will be sworn in on January 1, 2023.
Andrés was the Federal MP for São Paulo from 2015 to 2019. At that time he was elected by the Workers’ Party. However, the football manager begs to stay in the sport, ruling out the possibility of getting involved in politics again.
Andrés Sanchez’s desire is to fill the position of CBF tackle coordinator, which should become vacant after the 2022 World Cup. Juninho Paulista fulfills this function in Brazil’s top football institution.
The former president of Corinthians was in Qatar to follow the World Cup along with other figures in Brazilian football. During his time in the country, he strengthened his ties with the top leadership of the CBF.
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The agreement was approved by a supermajority at a ministerial meeting of member states in Brussels, Belgium, after months of discussions about the best way to contain the rise in natural gas prices in the bloc caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. .
The value set by the countries is well below the proposal made by the European Commission, the EU’s executive body, in November: 275 EUR/MWh. However, the countries leading the cap campaign were in favor of an even lower limit, around 100 EUR/MWh.
Germany, always wary of price controls, voted in favor of 180 euros, while Austria and the Netherlands, also skeptical of the cap, abstained. Hungary, the most pro-Russian country in the EU, voted against.
The instrument will enter into force on 15 February, but only if natural gas prices on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange exceed 180 euros/MWh for three consecutive days. In addition, the difference compared to a number of global benchmarks should be more than 35 euros.
Italy, the EU’s biggest supporter of the ceiling, has claimed responsibility for the measure. “This is a victory for Italy, which believed and worked for us to reach this agreement,” Environment and Energy Minister Gilberto Picetto tweeted.
“This is a victory for Italian and European citizens who demand energy security,” he added.
Currently, the gas price in Amsterdam is around 110 EUR/MWh, which is already a reflection of the agreement in Brussels – in August the figure even broke the barrier of 340 EUR/MWh.
However, Russia has already threatened to stop exports to countries that adhere to the ceiling. (ANSA).
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