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Ukraine warns that Russia is preparing a major offensive at the beginning of the year – Obozrevatel

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whitefish here our liveblog from the war in Ukraine

Ukrainian officials believe Russia is preparing a major offensive early next year. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov predicts that operations by Russian troops could begin as early as February, as happened at the beginning of the invasion.

In an interview with The keeperReznikov showed that there are evidence that the Kremlin is taking steps to shift to a broader offensive in Ukraine. It is assumed that operations will begin in February next year, when the mobilized Russians finish the training process.

Russia announced a partial mobilization in September – the first since World War II – and, Reznikov said, has already sent half of the 300,000 men called up to replenish Russian ranks after setbacks on the battlefield. The second half of the military should, in his opinion, arrive in Ukraine only in February, after more complex preparations.

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“Recruits have been preparing for at least three months. This means that they are trying to start the next offensive wave, probably in February.like last year. This is the plan [russos]”, he ruled. But will the Kremlin limit itself to calling up 300 thousand soldiers? The Kremlin says yes, but Reznikov does not believe the promise. He believes that the mobilization efforts will continue beyond what was announced, following the strategy of sending the largest number of “bodies” into battle in hope to overburden the smaller Ukrainian forces.

In his statements to a British newspaper, Reznikov foresaw the scenario that the Ukrainian authorities had warned about. Over the past few weeks, they have indicated that Russia is gathering men and weapons for a new offensive that could launch a major offensive from the Donbass or even Belarus. Russian forces want to fight back against Ukrainian forces and may even be planning a second attempt to retake the capital, Kyiv.

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In an interview with EconomistThe commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Valery Zaluzhny, foresaw, like Reznikov, an offensive in early 2023.

“Russian mobilization worked. They are 100% ready.”, Zaluzhny warned. The general predicts that operations will begin in February, “at best in March, at worst – in January.”

In his speech to the European Council, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky predicted a period of great effort on the part of the country and its allies. “The next six months will be decisive in many aspects in the confrontation that Russia started with its aggression,” he stressed.

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Vladimir Putin has delayed the invasion of Ukraine at least three times.

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Putin has repeatedly consulted with Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu about the invasion, Europa Press told Ukraine’s chief intelligence director Vadim Skibitsky.

According to Skibitsky, it was the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB), which is responsible for counterintelligence and espionage work, that put pressure on Gerasimov and other military agencies to agree to launch an offensive. .

However, according to the Ukrainian intelligence services, the FSB considered that by the end of February sufficient preparations had already been made to guarantee the success of the Russian Armed Forces in a lightning invasion.

However, according to Kyiv, the Russian General Staff provided the Russian troops with supplies and ammunition for only three days, hoping that the offensive would be swift and immediately successful.

The head of Ukrainian intelligence also emphasized the cooperation of local residents, who always provided the Ukrainian authorities with up-to-date information about the Russian army, such as the number of soldiers or the exact location of troops.

The military offensive launched on February 24 by Russia in Ukraine caused at least 6.5 million internally displaced persons and more than 7.8 million refugees to European countries, which is why the UN classifies this migration crisis as the worst in Europe since World War II (1939-1945). gg.). ).

At the moment, 17.7 million Ukrainians are in need of humanitarian assistance, and 9.3 million are in need of food aid and housing.

The UN has presented as confirmed 6,755 civilian deaths and 10,607 wounded since the beginning of the war, stressing that these figures are much lower than the real ones.

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Life sentence for former Swedish official for spying for Russia

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A Stockholm court on Monday sentenced a former Swedish intelligence officer to life in prison for spying for Russia, and his brother to at least 12 years in prison. In what is considered one of the most serious cases in Swedish counterintelligence history, much of the trial took place behind closed doors in the name of national security.

According to the prosecution, it was Russian military intelligence, the GRU, who took advantage of the information provided by the two brothers between 2011 and their arrest at the end of 2021.

Peyman Kia, 42, has held many senior positions in the Swedish security apparatus, including the army and his country’s intelligence services (Säpo). His younger brother, Payam, 35, is accused of “participating in the planning” of the plot and of “managing contacts with Russia and the GRU, including passing on information and receiving financial rewards.”

Both men deny the charges, and their lawyers have demanded an acquittal on charges of “aggravated espionage,” according to the Swedish news agency TT.

The trial coincides with another case of alleged Russian espionage, with the arrest of the Russian-born couple in late November in a suburb of Stockholm by a police team arriving at dawn in a Blackhawk helicopter.

Research website Bellingcat identified them as Sergei Skvortsov and Elena Kulkova. The couple allegedly acted as sleeper agents for Moscow, having moved to Sweden in the late 1990s.

According to Swedish press reports, the couple ran companies specializing in the import and export of electronic components and industrial technology.

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The man was again detained at the end of November for “illegal intelligence activities.” His partner, suspected of being an accomplice, has been released but remains under investigation.

According to Swedish authorities, the arrests are not related to the trial of the Kia brothers.

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Ukraine admitted that Russia may announce a general mobilization

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“They can strengthen their positions. We understand that this can happen. At the same time, we do not rule out that they will announce a general mobilization,” Danilov said in an interview with the Ukrainska Pravda online publication.

Danilov believed that this mobilization would also be convened “to exterminate as many as possible” of Russian citizens, so that “they would no longer have any problems on their territory.”

In this sense, Danilov also reminded that Russia has not given up on securing control over Kyiv or the idea of ​​the complete “destruction” of Ukraine. “We have to be ready for anything,” he said.

“I want everyone to understand that [os russos] they have not given up on the idea of ​​destroying our nation. If they don’t have Kyiv in their hands, they won’t have anything in their hands, we must understand this,” continued Danilov, who also did not rule out that a new Russian offensive would come from “Belarus and other territories.” .

As such, Danilov praised the decision of many of its residents who chose to stay in the Ukrainian capital when the war broke out in order to defend the city.

“They expected that there would be panic, that people would run, that there would be nothing to protect Kyiv,” he added, referring to President Volodymyr Zelensky.

The military offensive launched on February 24 by Russia in Ukraine caused at least 6.5 million internally displaced persons and more than 7.8 million refugees to European countries, which is why the UN classifies this migration crisis as the worst in Europe since World War II (1939-1945). gg.). ).

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At the moment, 17.7 million Ukrainians are in need of humanitarian assistance, and 9.3 million are in need of food aid and housing.

The Russian invasion, justified by Russian President Vladimir Putin on the need to “denazify” and demilitarize Ukraine for Russia’s security, was condemned by the international community at large, which responded by sending weapons to Ukraine and imposing political and economic sanctions on Russia.

The UN has presented as confirmed 6,755 civilian deaths and 10,607 wounded since the beginning of the war, stressing that these figures are much lower than the real ones.

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