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Politics and Budget: Inseparable Variables of the New Government – 11/30/2022 – Opinion



Politics and Budget: Inseparable Variables of the New Government - 11/30/2022 - Opinion

Analysis of the situation in Brazil based on the coexistence of two types of crises—political and fiscal/budgetary—is a common occurrence in national public debate. Together they create an unattractive interpretation of the trajectory of the country’s economic and social development.

In fact, the use of the term “crisis” to describe the situation in Brazil is nothing new in the current context. OUR demand for political reform, the mother of all reforms and structural reforms, was present almost constantly during the period of the 1988 Constitution. Despite the sometimes inaccurate use of these terms, we read that there is in fact a connection between the political environment and the development of fiscal and budgetary policy. This equation is the most pressing issue of the new mandate Luis Inacio Lula da Silva (PT).

The President-elect himself spoke about the severity of the political crisis in the country. In your opinion, result of the presidential race made democracy (and not itself) the biggest winner in this debate. The PT’s vision of democracy is not limited to the selection of the ruling elite through competition for votes, but is “something tangible”, “concrete”, “a tool to improve everyone’s life”, i.e. ownership.

A natural question in the context of inflated expectations: “For what money?” O budget 2023 represented by the current government has little to do with the economic situation and even less with the political situation. If the budget item was no longer enough to manage fiscal policy, then after the pre-election dispute it becomes even stronger and promises an increase in distributive ambitions.

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In her third term, Lula has task of determining the rules of the game with public spending, as well as a political balance that, in the limit, respects the imperatives of fiscal responsibility; now leads a coalition partly formed by members opposed to the PT’s economic prescriptions. Thus, such reconstruction will depend on the coordination of a diverse coalition pursuing equally diverse interests.

The fiscal policy of reconstruction should ideally be born signaling a new and valuable standard of performance in the face of rules. With credible commitment as a goal, regulatory change should replace spending ceiling to be a means, with its simply operational and naturally predictable role. The upheavals that ultimately threatened the new rule will matter less as a well-placed anchor will finally do its job.

Then the budgetary reconstruction will pass through a clear interpretation of the beneficial results of the past year. Only then, with the right diagnosis, will the country be able to deal with the legacy of the current administration, as well as deal with campaign commitments that have amassed billions off the budget.

We would know what moment is right for a choice and, above all, for negotiations. Complicated negotiations with political and legal backing, supporting in its trunk a society dependent on the government, which argues in the name of governability.

There is no easy way out BRL 90 billion license, BRL 175 billion or BRL 200 billion – which will temporarily have only a name. Focusing on the social will not be enough to contain the resistance that only sees what it wants to see. Only by joining forces will it be possible to get through the transition period and the next term without the precious political capital on the scene melting away and opening the way for new pre-election tensions before the next election.

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BUT reconstruction of public accounts would demand, finally, the resumption of the “golden age” of Brazilian politics, when democratic competition in general terms maintained political stability from protecting the core of rules and politics even between opponents, turning the dispute between parties into a mechanism for improving public policy. It will be a challenge of reconstruction and survival, not necessarily in that order.

Articles published by subscription do not reflect the opinion of the newspaper. Its publication aims to stimulate the discussion of Brazilian and world issues and reflect the diverse trends of contemporary thought.

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The dollar continues to reflect the political scenario



The dollar continues to reflect the political scenario

Yesterday, financial agents evaluated the opposite decision of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) regarding the so-called secret budget. In addition, a decision was made by STF Minister Gilmar Méndez to issue an injunction that would exclude the Bolsa Família from the spending cap rule, with investors trying to understand how this measure would affect the processing of the transitional PEC in the Chamber of Deputies. Oh this PEC!!!!

Since he is an exchange investor, any reading that the budget will be exceeded or become more flexible will negatively affect the exchange market, whether through the PEC or in any other way. We will continue with volatility today.

Looking beyond, the US Central Bank (Fed), although slowing down the pace of monetary tightening at its December meeting, issued a tougher-than-expected statement warning that its fight against inflation was not yet over, raising fears that rising US interest rates will push the world’s largest economy into recession.

The currency market continues to react to political news. The voting on the PEC is saved for today. It is expected that it will indeed be reviewed to open the way tomorrow for discussions on the 2023 budget.

Yesterday, the spot price closed the selling day at R$5.3103.

For today on the calendar we will have an index of consumer confidence in the eurozone. Good luck and good luck in business!!

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Andrés Sánchez consults with the Ministry of Sports, but refuses a political post.



The former president of the Corinthians dreams of working for the CBF as a national team coordinator. He was consulted shortly after Lula’s election.

Former Corinthians president Andrés Sánchez was advised to take a position in the Ministry of Sports under the administration of Lula (PT). However, he ruled out a return to politics. dreams of taking over the coordination of CBF selectionHow do you know PURPOSE.

No formal invitation was made to the former Corinthian representative, only a consultation on a portfolio opportunity with the new federal government, which will be sworn in on January 1, 2023.

Andrés was the Federal MP for São Paulo from 2015 to 2019. At that time he was elected by the Workers’ Party. However, the football manager begs to stay in the sport, ruling out the possibility of getting involved in politics again.

Andrés Sanchez’s desire is to fill the position of CBF tackle coordinator, which should become vacant after the 2022 World Cup. Juninho Paulista fulfills this function in Brazil’s top football institution.

The former president of Corinthians was in Qatar to follow the World Cup along with other figures in Brazilian football. During his time in the country, he strengthened his ties with the top leadership of the CBF.

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The EU has reached a political agreement on limiting gas prices – 19.12.2022



Germany sentenced Russian to life imprisonment for political murder by order of Moscow - 12/15/2021
BRUSSELS, DECEMBER 19 (ANSA). European Union countries reached a political agreement on Monday (19) to impose a natural gas price ceiling of 180 euros per megawatt hour (MWh). The main sources of income for Russia and the minimization of the use of energy as a weapon by the regime of Vladimir Putin.

The agreement was approved by a supermajority at a ministerial meeting of member states in Brussels, Belgium, after months of discussions about the best way to contain the rise in natural gas prices in the bloc caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. .

The value set by the countries is well below the proposal made by the European Commission, the EU’s executive body, in November: 275 EUR/MWh. However, the countries leading the cap campaign were in favor of an even lower limit, around 100 EUR/MWh.

Germany, always wary of price controls, voted in favor of 180 euros, while Austria and the Netherlands, also skeptical of the cap, abstained. Hungary, the most pro-Russian country in the EU, voted against.

The instrument will enter into force on 15 February, but only if natural gas prices on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange exceed 180 euros/MWh for three consecutive days. In addition, the difference compared to a number of global benchmarks should be more than 35 euros.

Italy, the EU’s biggest supporter of the ceiling, has claimed responsibility for the measure. “This is a victory for Italy, which believed and worked for us to reach this agreement,” Environment and Energy Minister Gilberto Picetto tweeted.

“This is a victory for Italian and European citizens who demand energy security,” he added.

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Currently, the gas price in Amsterdam is around 110 EUR/MWh, which is already a reflection of the agreement in Brussels – in August the figure even broke the barrier of 340 EUR/MWh.

However, Russia has already threatened to stop exports to countries that adhere to the ceiling. (ANSA).

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