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Two months to avoid political and administrative collapse



published on 04.11.2022 03:30

(credit: Cayo Gomez)

Let no one be deceived. The first task of the transition, launched yesterday under the leadership of Vice President-elect Geraldo Alcmina, is to avoid a political and administrative collapse of the federal government due to the policy gap following the election of President Luis Inacio. Lula da Silva means the resumption of a national project focused on three main areas: building an expanded democratic state open to public participation; resumption of development in the new conditions of sustainability in a globalized economy; and fighting inequalities to eradicate poverty and promote social inclusion. Bolsonaro’s government had diametrically opposed goals.

What is the real basis for the collapse not to happen? First, a dialogue between those leaving and those entering to establish baseline levels of cooperation. In a sense, the meeting between President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) after his call to truck drivers to clear the roads and Alcmine was auspicious, whatever the conversation was about.

With the electoral defeat, Bolsonaro’s government ended, but his term had not yet expired. A minimum of understanding is needed, even knowing that there will be no dialogue between the current president and the successor due to the absolute incompatibility of geniuses, as the late composer Aldir Blanc would say. All signs of Bolsonaro are that he does not intend to hand over Lula’s flag to the Palacio do Planalto. From an institutional point of view, this is just a symbolic gesture. The PT will be approved by the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE) and sworn in by Congress.

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Secondly, collapse can be avoided, since the main functions of the state are provided by bodies in charge of regulating, collecting and enforcing rules that not only follow the political orientation of the President of the Republic, but also the rules established by Congress. , which are resolved in contentious cases by the Federal Supreme Court (STF). The electoral process over a very turbulent year has confirmed what was said earlier: we have strong institutions that have resisted the persecution of sectors that defend the authoritarian regime.

In areas important to the functioning of government, a stable and well-trained bureaucracy carries out public administration under the guise of ethics and responsibility. Exceptions are already known and their actors identified. They are unable to prevent the transition to the collapse of these most important activities, including the protection of order.

Thirdly, the existence of a political class whose ability to survive and adapt to circumstances was once again proven in the elections. The strength of the Centrão parties is undeniable, which will require tough negotiations on sensitive budget issues. Where there is politics, there is hope for negotiated and positive solutions.

According to Alkmina, there will be continuity, planning and transparency in the transition, which means press access to the negotiations and monitoring of public opinion. The crux of the matter is to find a balance between financial responsibility and the most urgent social demands, including the maintenance of Auxílio Brasil in the amount of 600 reais, which is not budgeted for in 2023.

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Lula won’t have the traditional 100-day truce to settle in the Planalto Palace and start ruling. He was elected by a narrow margin, his victory continues to be contested by a significant portion of Bolsonaro’s voters, some because they are ideologically far right, others because they are purple anti-PT. A reversal of the expectations he created on the campaign trail, along with those most in need of federal support, could quickly change the balance of political power, transforming the “I was happy and didn’t know” feeling that boomeranged him back to power.

What is the antidote for this? This is not a populist policy, because these revenues were practically depleted by Bolsonaro during the election campaign, on which he spent much more than he should have. The real antidote is building a government with a broad democratic coalition, Lula’s personal and incommunicable task. The first signs that the new government will be of this nature are visible: the broad composition of the transitional group, negotiations with the leaders of Centrão, the recognition of the alliance with the parties and the refusal to co-opt its members to create a new government.

Lula is an experienced political leader with negotiating skills. He knows perfectly well what mistakes he made in power. The logic is not to repeat them.

The leadership of the PT, led during the transition by Glasey Hoffmann and Aloizio Mercadante, also has political and administrative experience. He knows that it is not worth elbowing allies to take all the seats in the future government, since they already have the presidency and control over the most strategic and important positions.

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The dollar continues to reflect the political scenario



The dollar continues to reflect the political scenario

Yesterday, financial agents evaluated the opposite decision of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) regarding the so-called secret budget. In addition, a decision was made by STF Minister Gilmar Méndez to issue an injunction that would exclude the Bolsa Família from the spending cap rule, with investors trying to understand how this measure would affect the processing of the transitional PEC in the Chamber of Deputies. Oh this PEC!!!!

Since he is an exchange investor, any reading that the budget will be exceeded or become more flexible will negatively affect the exchange market, whether through the PEC or in any other way. We will continue with volatility today.

Looking beyond, the US Central Bank (Fed), although slowing down the pace of monetary tightening at its December meeting, issued a tougher-than-expected statement warning that its fight against inflation was not yet over, raising fears that rising US interest rates will push the world’s largest economy into recession.

The currency market continues to react to political news. The voting on the PEC is saved for today. It is expected that it will indeed be reviewed to open the way tomorrow for discussions on the 2023 budget.

Yesterday, the spot price closed the selling day at R$5.3103.

For today on the calendar we will have an index of consumer confidence in the eurozone. Good luck and good luck in business!!

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Andrés Sánchez consults with the Ministry of Sports, but refuses a political post.



The former president of the Corinthians dreams of working for the CBF as a national team coordinator. He was consulted shortly after Lula’s election.

Former Corinthians president Andrés Sánchez was advised to take a position in the Ministry of Sports under the administration of Lula (PT). However, he ruled out a return to politics. dreams of taking over the coordination of CBF selectionHow do you know PURPOSE.

No formal invitation was made to the former Corinthian representative, only a consultation on a portfolio opportunity with the new federal government, which will be sworn in on January 1, 2023.

Andrés was the Federal MP for São Paulo from 2015 to 2019. At that time he was elected by the Workers’ Party. However, the football manager begs to stay in the sport, ruling out the possibility of getting involved in politics again.

Andrés Sanchez’s desire is to fill the position of CBF tackle coordinator, which should become vacant after the 2022 World Cup. Juninho Paulista fulfills this function in Brazil’s top football institution.

The former president of Corinthians was in Qatar to follow the World Cup along with other figures in Brazilian football. During his time in the country, he strengthened his ties with the top leadership of the CBF.

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The EU has reached a political agreement on limiting gas prices – 19.12.2022



Germany sentenced Russian to life imprisonment for political murder by order of Moscow - 12/15/2021
BRUSSELS, DECEMBER 19 (ANSA). European Union countries reached a political agreement on Monday (19) to impose a natural gas price ceiling of 180 euros per megawatt hour (MWh). The main sources of income for Russia and the minimization of the use of energy as a weapon by the regime of Vladimir Putin.

The agreement was approved by a supermajority at a ministerial meeting of member states in Brussels, Belgium, after months of discussions about the best way to contain the rise in natural gas prices in the bloc caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. .

The value set by the countries is well below the proposal made by the European Commission, the EU’s executive body, in November: 275 EUR/MWh. However, the countries leading the cap campaign were in favor of an even lower limit, around 100 EUR/MWh.

Germany, always wary of price controls, voted in favor of 180 euros, while Austria and the Netherlands, also skeptical of the cap, abstained. Hungary, the most pro-Russian country in the EU, voted against.

The instrument will enter into force on 15 February, but only if natural gas prices on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange exceed 180 euros/MWh for three consecutive days. In addition, the difference compared to a number of global benchmarks should be more than 35 euros.

Italy, the EU’s biggest supporter of the ceiling, has claimed responsibility for the measure. “This is a victory for Italy, which believed and worked for us to reach this agreement,” Environment and Energy Minister Gilberto Picetto tweeted.

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“This is a victory for Italian and European citizens who demand energy security,” he added.

Currently, the gas price in Amsterdam is around 110 EUR/MWh, which is already a reflection of the agreement in Brussels – in August the figure even broke the barrier of 340 EUR/MWh.

However, Russia has already threatened to stop exports to countries that adhere to the ceiling. (ANSA).

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