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Today’s Elections, Yesterday’s Voters, Tomorrow’s Politics – US Midterm Election Preview (Sebastian Boogalo)



Today's Elections, Yesterday's Voters, Tomorrow's Politics - US Midterm Election Preview (Sebastian Boogalo)

Regardless of the results of the US midterm elections this morning, Joe Biden’s life will be different tomorrow. If the most probable—the Republican takeover of Capitol Hill, this time through polls—would happen, Donald Trump would be a stone’s throw away from re-election and Biden would plunge into the slow heat of a minority presidency. For every act of executive power he signs from now on, by avoiding checking the balances, he will undermine his chances of being elected to a second term in 2024. The comical scenario of recognizing their own results in Congress, but not the results of the upper house. If a miracle happens—and Joe Biden’s party holds onto the slim majority it has between congressmen and senators—the country will burn, and half of the political system will cast doubt on its viability.

None of the hypotheses is a balm.

Old habits die hard

If the Republican victory is confirmed, we must look at the reality of the United States of America as a precursor to what will happen in other free societies.

The political factor began to prevail in the order of priorities of our decision makers, but this dynamic did not infect their electorate. To put it simply: Biden politicized his entire message around defending democracy, the integrity of the election results, American values ​​in the world, helping Ukraine against the Russian bear, fighting for reproductive rights, but North American American voters prioritized the economic factor in voting intentions tested until this Tuesday.

Leaders around the world are more political. But in an environment of high inflation, loss of purchasing power and rising cost of living, it is the economy that puts more crosses on the ballot. Politics has risen in the decision-making hierarchy of decision makers, but economics has not come down from the top of the concerns of those who vote.

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Old habits die hard. If those in power begin to adjust to low interest rates and international stability after the end of the Cold War, voters will go to the polls before they get used to the new paradigm.

Here’s what’s going on in those gaps: it’s today’s elections with yesterday’s voters and tomorrow’s politics.

It is at this crossroads that the Democrats, and Biden in particular, stand. And it is precisely this crossroads that we will sooner or later find in Europe. The flags of the actors are as inevitable as the difficulties of the voters, but they do not coincide.

The terrible paradox that haunts the oldest constitutional republic on the planet is simple: in a democracy, democracy alone is not enough.

Biden is aware of this and has tried to make up for it with student debt relief, but that should not be enough. Even his ambitious legislative agenda, endorsing the largest climate change package since the debate began, will have no impact on American daily life in the short term. Energy transition in clean technology industry received important but indifferent incentives to go to the polls today.

This is another terrible fate for the Biden administration: Legislative success, even in a democracy, does not necessarily mean political success.

For Americans, with a two-hundred-year culture of decentralized power, choosing an opposition party to the White House in the midterms is common sense. In retrospect, it is this democratic instinct that justifies the fact that all presidents, except for W. Bush, were defeated in the first intermediate exams since World War II. And this is perhaps the third – and most dangerous – paradox of these elections.

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The American electoral tradition of distributing institutions between the two main parties runs the risk of handing over the future of its democracy to a party that no longer believes in it.

Old habits die hard.

But they also die.

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The dollar continues to reflect the political scenario



The dollar continues to reflect the political scenario

Yesterday, financial agents evaluated the opposite decision of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) regarding the so-called secret budget. In addition, a decision was made by STF Minister Gilmar Méndez to issue an injunction that would exclude the Bolsa Família from the spending cap rule, with investors trying to understand how this measure would affect the processing of the transitional PEC in the Chamber of Deputies. Oh this PEC!!!!

Since he is an exchange investor, any reading that the budget will be exceeded or become more flexible will negatively affect the exchange market, whether through the PEC or in any other way. We will continue with volatility today.

Looking beyond, the US Central Bank (Fed), although slowing down the pace of monetary tightening at its December meeting, issued a tougher-than-expected statement warning that its fight against inflation was not yet over, raising fears that rising US interest rates will push the world’s largest economy into recession.

The currency market continues to react to political news. The voting on the PEC is saved for today. It is expected that it will indeed be reviewed to open the way tomorrow for discussions on the 2023 budget.

Yesterday, the spot price closed the selling day at R$5.3103.

For today on the calendar we will have an index of consumer confidence in the eurozone. Good luck and good luck in business!!

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Andrés Sánchez consults with the Ministry of Sports, but refuses a political post.



The former president of the Corinthians dreams of working for the CBF as a national team coordinator. He was consulted shortly after Lula’s election.

Former Corinthians president Andrés Sánchez was advised to take a position in the Ministry of Sports under the administration of Lula (PT). However, he ruled out a return to politics. dreams of taking over the coordination of CBF selectionHow do you know PURPOSE.

No formal invitation was made to the former Corinthian representative, only a consultation on a portfolio opportunity with the new federal government, which will be sworn in on January 1, 2023.

Andrés was the Federal MP for São Paulo from 2015 to 2019. At that time he was elected by the Workers’ Party. However, the football manager begs to stay in the sport, ruling out the possibility of getting involved in politics again.

Andrés Sanchez’s desire is to fill the position of CBF tackle coordinator, which should become vacant after the 2022 World Cup. Juninho Paulista fulfills this function in Brazil’s top football institution.

The former president of Corinthians was in Qatar to follow the World Cup along with other figures in Brazilian football. During his time in the country, he strengthened his ties with the top leadership of the CBF.

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The EU has reached a political agreement on limiting gas prices – 19.12.2022



Germany sentenced Russian to life imprisonment for political murder by order of Moscow - 12/15/2021
BRUSSELS, DECEMBER 19 (ANSA). European Union countries reached a political agreement on Monday (19) to impose a natural gas price ceiling of 180 euros per megawatt hour (MWh). The main sources of income for Russia and the minimization of the use of energy as a weapon by the regime of Vladimir Putin.

The agreement was approved by a supermajority at a ministerial meeting of member states in Brussels, Belgium, after months of discussions about the best way to contain the rise in natural gas prices in the bloc caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. .

The value set by the countries is well below the proposal made by the European Commission, the EU’s executive body, in November: 275 EUR/MWh. However, the countries leading the cap campaign were in favor of an even lower limit, around 100 EUR/MWh.

Germany, always wary of price controls, voted in favor of 180 euros, while Austria and the Netherlands, also skeptical of the cap, abstained. Hungary, the most pro-Russian country in the EU, voted against.

The instrument will enter into force on 15 February, but only if natural gas prices on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange exceed 180 euros/MWh for three consecutive days. In addition, the difference compared to a number of global benchmarks should be more than 35 euros.

Italy, the EU’s biggest supporter of the ceiling, has claimed responsibility for the measure. “This is a victory for Italy, which believed and worked for us to reach this agreement,” Environment and Energy Minister Gilberto Picetto tweeted.

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“This is a victory for Italian and European citizens who demand energy security,” he added.

Currently, the gas price in Amsterdam is around 110 EUR/MWh, which is already a reflection of the agreement in Brussels – in August the figure even broke the barrier of 340 EUR/MWh.

However, Russia has already threatened to stop exports to countries that adhere to the ceiling. (ANSA).

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