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The Interests Behind the Political Movements of Change of Government – Wagner Parente



The Interests Behind the Political Movements of Change of Government - Wagner Parente
Lula’s photo with Federal Supreme Court (STF) ministers conveys the idea that there is no grudge between him and some of his past tormentors. (photo: NELSON JR/STF)

Following political news in Brazil without a minimal understanding of the interests behind it is like looking for north in a broken compass. The past week has been rich in news about political class movements that are not necessarily what they appear to be.

Beginning with Lula’s tour of Brazil, the photo of the president-elect with Federal Supreme Court (STF) ministers conveys the message that there is no grudge between him and some of his past tormentors.

Most of the Bolsonarist ministers – Xio Nunez Marquez and André Mendona – seemed quite pleased with the future chief executive. The same can be said about caresses by Crmen Lcia, Alexandre de Moraes, Edson Fachin, Lus Roberto Barroso and Rosa Weber. In 2018, everyone voted against a preventive habeas corpus that would save Lulu from prison.

This is not selfless forgiveness, but the pragmatism of an experienced politician. Lula considers herself unfair and attributes part of this injustice to the STF. Likewise, the ministers who judged him are unlikely to change their minds today. However, the president-elect knows the damage his government can suffer from a conflict with its neighbors in Trs Poderes Square.

This more rational view seems to contradict Lula’s emotional speech last Thursday against fiscal anchors rather than the need for social spending. Meirelles even said that Lula was “blurred”. This performance, added to the possibility of a Constitutional Amendment (PEC) that permanently removes social programs from the spending ceiling, crashed the stock market and sent the dollar up.

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Perhaps this line is also not quite what it seems. Appointing someone who is highly technical and does not report to the Treasury Department could be a problem for the president-elect. Watching figures like Andre Lara Resende and Prsio Arida during the transition may have placed too much hope on how the economy is moving.

Bringing a name like former minister Guido Mantega into the transition and delivering this kind of speech could pave the way for a moderate PT name like Alexandre Padilla or Wellington Diaz to be received with relief rather than resistance.

During the same tour of Brazil, Lula visited Arthur Lear (PP-AL) at the official residence of the President of the Chamber of Deputies. At that meeting, a deal appears to have been made to guarantee a PEC that is based on a secret budget (perhaps a little less secret), while raising the ceiling from 100 billion reais to 175 reais. billion for the maintenance of social programs.

You can bet that after last week, if this agreement is actually implemented by both, Lula will no longer criticize the part of the budget controlled by Congress. This situation puts Lyra in the best possible position: she can turn her power over the budget into constitutional power and even open a channel with Lula’s new government. Who did not like this strengthening of the lyre, so it was his opponent in Alagoas Renan Calleiros (MDB-AL).

Renan, even being nominated by his party to the transitional group, criticized the PEC too much. He even gave statements to the newspapers that it would be a “barbershop.” In addition, Renan posted on social media that the constitutionalization of the secret budget is appalling because it shows a lack of commitment to fiscal policy. In fact, he’s terrified to see his archenemy rise in power and his son choke to death in the race for Senate President.

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Although it is impossible to grasp all the interests behind the movements, the exercise alone is worth it. You even risk – sometimes – doing it right.

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The dollar continues to reflect the political scenario



The dollar continues to reflect the political scenario

Yesterday, financial agents evaluated the opposite decision of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) regarding the so-called secret budget. In addition, a decision was made by STF Minister Gilmar Méndez to issue an injunction that would exclude the Bolsa Família from the spending cap rule, with investors trying to understand how this measure would affect the processing of the transitional PEC in the Chamber of Deputies. Oh this PEC!!!!

Since he is an exchange investor, any reading that the budget will be exceeded or become more flexible will negatively affect the exchange market, whether through the PEC or in any other way. We will continue with volatility today.

Looking beyond, the US Central Bank (Fed), although slowing down the pace of monetary tightening at its December meeting, issued a tougher-than-expected statement warning that its fight against inflation was not yet over, raising fears that rising US interest rates will push the world’s largest economy into recession.

The currency market continues to react to political news. The voting on the PEC is saved for today. It is expected that it will indeed be reviewed to open the way tomorrow for discussions on the 2023 budget.

Yesterday, the spot price closed the selling day at R$5.3103.

For today on the calendar we will have an index of consumer confidence in the eurozone. Good luck and good luck in business!!

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Andrés Sánchez consults with the Ministry of Sports, but refuses a political post.



The former president of the Corinthians dreams of working for the CBF as a national team coordinator. He was consulted shortly after Lula’s election.

Former Corinthians president Andrés Sánchez was advised to take a position in the Ministry of Sports under the administration of Lula (PT). However, he ruled out a return to politics. dreams of taking over the coordination of CBF selectionHow do you know PURPOSE.

No formal invitation was made to the former Corinthian representative, only a consultation on a portfolio opportunity with the new federal government, which will be sworn in on January 1, 2023.

Andrés was the Federal MP for São Paulo from 2015 to 2019. At that time he was elected by the Workers’ Party. However, the football manager begs to stay in the sport, ruling out the possibility of getting involved in politics again.

Andrés Sanchez’s desire is to fill the position of CBF tackle coordinator, which should become vacant after the 2022 World Cup. Juninho Paulista fulfills this function in Brazil’s top football institution.

The former president of Corinthians was in Qatar to follow the World Cup along with other figures in Brazilian football. During his time in the country, he strengthened his ties with the top leadership of the CBF.

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The EU has reached a political agreement on limiting gas prices – 19.12.2022



Germany sentenced Russian to life imprisonment for political murder by order of Moscow - 12/15/2021
BRUSSELS, DECEMBER 19 (ANSA). European Union countries reached a political agreement on Monday (19) to impose a natural gas price ceiling of 180 euros per megawatt hour (MWh). The main sources of income for Russia and the minimization of the use of energy as a weapon by the regime of Vladimir Putin.

The agreement was approved by a supermajority at a ministerial meeting of member states in Brussels, Belgium, after months of discussions about the best way to contain the rise in natural gas prices in the bloc caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. .

The value set by the countries is well below the proposal made by the European Commission, the EU’s executive body, in November: 275 EUR/MWh. However, the countries leading the cap campaign were in favor of an even lower limit, around 100 EUR/MWh.

Germany, always wary of price controls, voted in favor of 180 euros, while Austria and the Netherlands, also skeptical of the cap, abstained. Hungary, the most pro-Russian country in the EU, voted against.

The instrument will enter into force on 15 February, but only if natural gas prices on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange exceed 180 euros/MWh for three consecutive days. In addition, the difference compared to a number of global benchmarks should be more than 35 euros.

Italy, the EU’s biggest supporter of the ceiling, has claimed responsibility for the measure. “This is a victory for Italy, which believed and worked for us to reach this agreement,” Environment and Energy Minister Gilberto Picetto tweeted.

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“This is a victory for Italian and European citizens who demand energy security,” he added.

Currently, the gas price in Amsterdam is around 110 EUR/MWh, which is already a reflection of the agreement in Brussels – in August the figure even broke the barrier of 340 EUR/MWh.

However, Russia has already threatened to stop exports to countries that adhere to the ceiling. (ANSA).

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