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The dispute over political space causes friction between Lula’s allied parties.

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published on 13.11.2022 03:55


(Source: advertising/consultant Simone Tebet)

In July, defending an alliance with former toucan Geraldo Alcmin (PSB), then-presidential candidate of the Republic Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) used the phrase, essentially a rereading of excerpts from the statements and publications of the educator Paulo Freire, which served as the slogan of the entire campaign: “I read in a book by Paulo Freire that we must unite the divergent in order to defeat the antagonists. And that’s what you need to know.” The first part of the mission ended with the victory over President Jair Bolsonaro (PL).

Dissenters – in this case, the myriad of political forces that have formed to defeat Bolsonarism – now face another challenge: finding a consensus in a transitional government that will provide a minimum of governability starting in January. This stitching turns out to be more complex than it seemed in the heat of the election victory.

At the Banco do Brasil Cultural Center (CCBB), headquarters of the interim cabinet led by an elected vice president, work has yet to begin. Many thematic groups still do not have names, and disputes over space are already causing friction between the various parties that form the backbone of the future government. While the alliance between Lula and Alcmine’s allies is portrayed in press conferences, there are already those behind the scenes who complain about the leading role of some and the lack of definition of the directions the new government intends to follow from January 2023. The main controversy concerns a core tied to the PT base, which is feeling the loss of space for the more central political forces represented by Vice President Geraldo Alkmin and Senator Simone Tebet (MDB).

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There are also complaints from the allied parties about the massive presence of PT members associated mainly with the government of Dilma Rousseff, which is not well appreciated by most of its leaders. On Friday, information that Guido Mantega, Lula and Dilma’s former finance minister, had asked the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) to postpone the election of its new president caused confusion. The former minister, regarded as one of the fathers of the “new economic matrix” that deepened the country’s ongoing crisis and finally shook the then president’s political stability, proposed a delay so that Lula’s government could point to another name for Ilan Goldfein, president of the Central Bank under Michel Temer (MDB ), appointed to this post in the multilateral organization by Bolsonaro’s Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes.

“Who gave Mantega this delegation?” asked the politician, heard by Correio at the CCBB. Yesterday, the IDB confirmed the date of the elections and the preservation of already registered names, ignoring the proposal of the ex-minister.


development advocates

Guido Mantega is a member of the Transitional Government Planning, Budgeting and Management Thematic Group. His appointment also provoked a backlash among the allies and in the financial market, which made the reading more influential of the participation of the so-called “developmentalist” wing in the decisions of the interim cabinet. The presence of another former Dilma Treasury Secretary, Nelson Barbosa, on the economics thematic group reinforced that vision and contributed to market tension on Thursday.

Barbosa and Guilherme Mello, PT’s economic consultant associated with Unicamp, will prepare an economic policy plan for the future government, along with two PSDB experts from Fernando Enrique Cardoso: Percio Arida and André Lara Resende, mentors of the Real Plan that ended the country’s hyperinflation. There is another potential stumbling block in the transition team. Arida and Resende defend fiscal responsibility based on clear grounds and disapprove of unorthodox theories of more government intervention, despite being recognized for their creative approach to solving macroeconomic problems. Transition consultants are betting that Alkmin will play an important role in this group. The last word (or deciding vote) as the main coordinator of the transition remains with him.

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Agro and social will collide

The dispute between the left-wing parties that united the broad front that elected Lulu and the centrist allies that entered the PT’s base after the first round of elections – such as the DBR and the SDP (which joined last week) – must be resolved. repeat in other thematic groups. The political capital of Senator Simone Tebet (MDB-MS), a former presidential candidate who is part of the Social Assistance and Hunger Relief Group, is already scaring the far left of the PT. The group deals with topics close to the ideology of the legend, which would not want to lose its leading role in caring for the poorest. But Tebet will not become a minister if she herself does not want it.

The appointment of two former social development ministers from the Dilma era, Marcia López and Teresa Campello, was formulated to increase PT’s influence in the thematic group, which also includes Deputy André Quintao of Minas Gerais, who is associated with social movements. An MDB interlocutor confirmed to Correio that “there’s a hell of a lot of envy in PT” regarding the force with which Simone Tebet entered the transition. “Many are afraid to lose a place for her,” he admitted.

Another area in which the dispute over prominence will be fought will be agriculture, which has not yet been officially named. One of Lula’s top agribusiness sector interlocutors, former Agriculture Minister and Federal MP Neri Geller (PP-MT), was at CCBB on Friday to present names to the transition. He took for granted the participation of Senator Carlos Favaro (PSD-MT) and businessman Carlos Ernesto Augustin, who campaigned for Lulu in Mato Grosso. “We need to bring in those who are more balanced, who are more moderate, so that we can bring the sector closer to the government and take seats for policy discussion in terms of agribusiness development,” Geller said. .

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Bringing the “moderates” into the public policy debate on agribusiness will meet with a reaction from the left, among those who advocate greater involvement of social movements associated with family farming and cooperatives in shaping the future of the Department of Agriculture. One of the ideas being analyzed is to divide the thematic group into two, in order to take into account the two currents and avoid friction between them.

PT President and Transitional Political Relations Coordinator Glasey Hoffmann had to send a message to end the main character dispute. “The role of the council is to look for political leadership, to discuss the problems they have, to help find a solution, knowing that the decision process is diagnostic and not propositional, this is not where we discuss the government program,” she said after the meeting. . Transitional Political Council.

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Politics

High prices and political and economic uncertainty dampen demand for flights in Brazil

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High prices and political and economic uncertainty dampen demand for flights in Brazil
Gabriel Abreu – From Agência Amazônia

MANAUS. The lack of certainty in the Brazilian political and economic scenario and more expensive airfare have dampened demand for end-of-year travel. Amazon residents who choose to spend Christmas and New Year out of state will feel high airfares in their pocket. And those who chose to pay the high price chose the Northeast, according to research.

Booking.com conducted an unprecedented national-only survey to understand the behavior of travelers in the country when they visit the coast. According to the study, residents of the Northeast are unanimous when it comes to relaxing with their feet on the sand and swimming in the sea. Indeed, in the ranking of the five best beaches in Brazil, four are located in the region.

This was stated by economist Origenes Martins. AMAZON AGENCY that international travel is more expensive and that now is the best time to travel to other parts of the country. According to him, the war between Ukraine and Russia directly affected the cost of tickets for international flights.

“It is quite complicated by the excessive increase in ticket prices, in addition to the exchange rate issue. The dollar, with a significant increase, as well as the problems that the countries of Europe and the United States are experiencing, due to the war between Ukraine and Russia, cause problems, even now, with the advent of winter, even with heating houses, due to lack of fuel, ”explained economist.

Zijoca Beach in Jericoacoara do Ceara (Ricardo Rollo/Reproduction)

regional option

Travel agent Olímpio Carneiro reported that the lack of policy definition caused little movement towards the end of the year and that the way out given by the Amazons are packages for jungle hotels and hotels in Manaus.

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“We are seeing very little movement this year due to the political and economic uncertainty of the new government starting January 1st, which is why many people are reluctant to travel at the end of this year. Another problem is flights, the prices of which are much higher than average, which also reduces demand, ”said Carneiro.

non-tourist perspective

Economist Origenes Martins explained that in Brazil early next year there is a possibility of change due to institutional instability, this political problem with the lack of definition of the names of government plans, structure and even what type of economic practice will be adopted.

In any case, for Brazil, domestic tourism is on the rise and causes, so to speak, a strong strain in all sectors of the economy, and prices end up affected by changes, so much so that ticket prices, even domestic ones, could be much less. because, according to the operators themselves, the number of flights has increased significantly compared to last year, which theoretically should have led to a significant reduction in prices, ”the economist clarified.

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Politics

How Lula lost the first political round of his government

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How Lula lost the first political round of his government

Photo: Ricardo Stuckert

Serial advertising in support of the re-election of an MP Arthur Lyra (PP/AL) for the presidency of the Chamber show that Lula failed to achieve its first strategic goal after winning the election: have enough political support in the National Congress to regain executive powers.

Before the first round result, center party sources warned that Lula would try to use positions in the federal government to create a base that would allow him to influence elections to the House and get a more recovery-oriented leadership. protagonist Planalto. The victory of the Conservative parties sparked a yellow light, but their conquest on October 30 opened the door to a new window of negotiations with leaders who resisted declaring themselves in opposition.

However, without resorting to any political approach, the transition group, instead of seducing the allies, began its work by presenting the idea PEC asks for a lot of money, initiating negotiations he could not afford. The first person to notice the mistake was the senator. Renan Calleiros (MDB/AL), who classified this movement as shaving.

Looking back, the analysis is simple. Lula asked Congress for a fat check and even some of his newly won prerogatives. It gave rise to hopes among deputies and senators for places in the federal administration and … disappeared. His absence for two weeks (one for the international agenda and another for sick leave) without delegating political composition powers only served to discredit the vice president-elect. Geraldo Alkmin and make it clear that PT will play a central role in the most strategic areas of public policy.deconstructing the post-election wishful thinking, thinking that there will be a coalition government with a slight left bias.

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In addition, aggressive statements against the market contributed to the revival. negative memories of past PT experiences about how to manage the household, calling the technical leadership of the party in a personal conversation, which “It’s okay that Lula wanted to redeem his background in this government, but he also wanted to redeem the government. Dilma (Roussef) it was too much!”🇧🇷 Business circles and market representatives, who are part of the network of communicating vessels connecting deputies and senators, tried to sound the alarm, it could not be otherwise.

The fact is that the new government, wanting to actually exercise power without sitting down in a chair, got into a complex labyrinth. In order to approve the PEC, will it have to make concessions in order to accommodate non-aligned parties in the formation of a new government? Can Lula carve out seats in government that serve only her friends during the first and second hours, and even then get the budgetary and enforcement resources he asks for? At least one thing is certain. Lula will create his own ministry, which will have to solve more conflicts than he would like. and is seriously at risk of starting his term having already lost his first legislative battle.

The fact is that while Lula was on the road or defended himself, the centrist parties did not seek or receive proposals for effective participation in the next government. So, Lyra had an open path to secure his re-election more easily than one could imagine, so much so that Lula’s possible support for his name or not today, in terms of results, does not matter much.

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And the scenario could get even worse for Planalto. If Lira implements the idea of ​​a bloc with the main parties in the center, the PT will not chair any of the most important parliamentary committees in the House.

And, understanding the difficulty of approving PECs, PT MPs will defend behind the scenes the use of STFs to obtain over-the-ceiling resources to pay Bolsa Surname🇧🇷 Given the circumstances of the hostility between the political world and the judiciary, one can think of a more difficult inauguration of the government than one that, after losing the political battle, resorts to the STF in order to be able to count on the resources denied by the deputies. and senators?

Thus, advertising supporting the lira shows that Lula was unable to consolidate his position in the Legislative Assembly and even lost his positions.🇧🇷 This raises the question of how the future government will organize its base, based on such an unfavorable point (there are only 133 deputies in the left coalition).

There are two scenarios.

In the first, Lula decides to rule with a minority and begins to debate agenda after agenda, trying to attract detractors by practicing big retail in Congress and keeping her legislative agenda to the minimum possible. The other is to recognize an equal in the lyre, Just like Jair Bolsonaro did.by inviting him to take a leading role in the government’s agenda and participate (or his closest group) in the development of major decisions, continuing the semi-presidency that actually exists in Brazil today.

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Lebanon fails to elect new president for seventh time due to political impasse – Middle East Monitor

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Lebanon fails to elect new president for seventh time due to political impasse – Middle East Monitor

Lebanese lawmakers on Thursday failed to elect a new president for the seventh time as the country grapples with a deepening political and economic crisis, the Anadolu news agency reported.

110 MPs out of 128 MPs took part in the voting.

Michel Moawad, a candidate backed by the Lebanese Armed Forces, won 42 votes, well short of the number needed to win in the first round, while 50 MPs voted against.

Speaker Nabih Berry scheduled the next vote a week later, on 1 December.

A candidate needs two-thirds of the votes (86 MPs) in the 128-MP parliament to pass the first round, and an absolute majority is required in subsequent rounds.

LEI: Lebanon condemns new Israeli violations of naval and air forces

Former President Michel Aoun stepped down on October 31 after serving a six-year term and lawmakers failed to agree on a successor.

Since 2019, Lebanon has been experiencing a devastating economic crisis that, according to the World Bank, is one of the worst the world has seen in modern times.

The country has not had a fully functioning government since May, with Prime Minister Najib Mikati and his cabinet having limited powers in their current interim status.

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