Election of the isolated Bolsonarist Government of Santa Catarina and PT’s hegemony in Northeast governments show the extent to which presidential elections have played a decisive role in determining governors in some parts of the country, outweighing the balance of local forces.
This circumstance had practically no effect on the municipal elections that took place in the middle of the presidential terms.
The phenomenon of “marriage voting” for president and governor has reached a breaking point. Elections in Sao Paulo repeat in the second round to decimal places in dispute.
Elected to the government Tarcisio de Freitas, Republicans cast last Sunday (30) 55.27% of valid votes compared to 44.73% PT Fernando Haddad. In the presidential election, Jair Bolsonaro (PL) received 55.24% of the vote in the state, while Lula (PT) received 44.76%.
Tarcisio’s candidacy overcame the PSDB’s long hegemony in the state, which, in the face of a neutral position in the national elections in the first round, lost ground to a distant third with a candidate for re-election. Rodrigo Garcia.
In Santa Catarina, for the second consecutive state elections, Bolesonarism elevated a name outside the local political elite to the highest position in the state.
Jorginho Mello (Poland), a former toucan and former Assembly veteran, ran without a coalition, defeating long-lived political groups such as the PP, as well as Governor Carlos Moises (Republicans), unknown until 2018 and winning that year thanks to the Bolsonarist wave.
It was the only state where the PT x PL dispute recurred locally in the second round. Names less associated with the two main presidential candidates lost in the first vote.
report Sheet two weeks ago showed that in the first round, 521,000 voters annulled their vote for governor in São Paulo by dialing Bolsonaro’s number, 22, at the ballot box, possibly confusing it with Tarcisio’s number, 10.
Political scientist Julian Borba, a professor at the Federal University of Santa Catarina, says voters, especially those with little information, tend to use “cognitive shortcuts” to vote in a system as complex as Brazil’s.
“One of them is the reproduction of the numbers of the presidential candidate in the ballot box. The influence of the electronic ballot box on the number of votes in subtitles has already been documented. [para o Legislativo].”
Voter intent polls show how voters have sidelined local disputes.
On the eve of the first round Datafolha showed that in the three most populous states, one in three voters could not spontaneously say for whom they would vote for governor.
The emotional appeal of the protagonists of these presidential elections tends to potentiate the marital voting phenomenon.
The strength of the Lulu vote boosted candidates in the Northeast in four states where PT had already won in 2018: Ceara, piaui, Rio Grande do Norte and, in the second round, Bahia.
The result, however, does not reflect the existence of a powerful party machine or the dominance of the acronym in local politics. In none of these states is PT the legend with the most mayors. In Rio Grande do Norte, she elected only three deputies to the Assembly.
Chosen in Bahia Jerome Rodriguez a former secretary of state, he was unknown to most of the electorate and never stood for election. His campaign slogan was “JeroLula”.
The emphasis on national elections created obstacles for candidates who did not identify with either side, even with stronger party machines. In Rio Grande do Sul, PSDB seeks re-election Eduardo Leite, won after reaching the second round with a minimum margin of 2000 votes from third place.
However, governors who sought re-election and did not support either Lula or Bolsonaro won in states such as Minas for.
In the municipal elections two years ago, without the atmosphere of a sharpened split in the presidential elections, PT and Bolsonarist fared poorly.
In Bahia, which will end PT’s 20-year rule in state government, the party’s candidate in El Salvador was defeated with just 19% of the vote.
Across the country, the party had poor results at the time, with no victories in any capital, and its volume and the number of conquered prefectures dwindled.
President Bolsonaro killed and asked for votes for dozens of candidates across the country and was eventually defeated in major cities. The postulates that tried to glue his image to the campaign were not crowned with success either.