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How Lula lost the first political round of his government

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How Lula lost the first political round of his government

Photo: Ricardo Stuckert

Serial advertising in support of the re-election of an MP Arthur Lyra (PP/AL) for the presidency of the Chamber show that Lula failed to achieve its first strategic goal after winning the election: have enough political support in the National Congress to regain executive powers.

Before the first round result, center party sources warned that Lula would try to use positions in the federal government to create a base that would allow him to influence elections to the House and get a more recovery-oriented leadership. protagonist Planalto. The victory of the Conservative parties sparked a yellow light, but their conquest on October 30 opened the door to a new window of negotiations with leaders who resisted declaring themselves in opposition.

However, without resorting to any political approach, the transition group, instead of seducing the allies, began its work by presenting the idea PEC asks for a lot of money, initiating negotiations he could not afford. The first person to notice the mistake was the senator. Renan Calleiros (MDB/AL), who classified this movement as shaving.

Looking back, the analysis is simple. Lula asked Congress for a fat check and even some of his newly won prerogatives. It gave rise to hopes among deputies and senators for places in the federal administration and … disappeared. His absence for two weeks (one for the international agenda and another for sick leave) without delegating political composition powers only served to discredit the vice president-elect. Geraldo Alkmin and make it clear that PT will play a central role in the most strategic areas of public policy.deconstructing the post-election wishful thinking, thinking that there will be a coalition government with a slight left bias.

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In addition, aggressive statements against the market contributed to the revival. negative memories of past PT experiences about how to manage the household, calling the technical leadership of the party in a personal conversation, which “It’s okay that Lula wanted to redeem his background in this government, but he also wanted to redeem the government. Dilma (Roussef) it was too much!”🇧🇷 Business circles and market representatives, who are part of the network of communicating vessels connecting deputies and senators, tried to sound the alarm, it could not be otherwise.

The fact is that the new government, wanting to actually exercise power without sitting down in a chair, got into a complex labyrinth. In order to approve the PEC, will it have to make concessions in order to accommodate non-aligned parties in the formation of a new government? Can Lula carve out seats in government that serve only her friends during the first and second hours, and even then get the budgetary and enforcement resources he asks for? At least one thing is certain. Lula will create his own ministry, which will have to solve more conflicts than he would like. and is seriously at risk of starting his term having already lost his first legislative battle.

The fact is that while Lula was on the road or defended himself, the centrist parties did not seek or receive proposals for effective participation in the next government. So, Lyra had an open path to secure his re-election more easily than one could imagine, so much so that Lula’s possible support for his name or not today, in terms of results, does not matter much.

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And the scenario could get even worse for Planalto. If Lira implements the idea of ​​a bloc with the main parties in the center, the PT will not chair any of the most important parliamentary committees in the House.

And, understanding the difficulty of approving PECs, PT MPs will defend behind the scenes the use of STFs to obtain over-the-ceiling resources to pay Bolsa Surname🇧🇷 Given the circumstances of the hostility between the political world and the judiciary, one can think of a more difficult inauguration of the government than one that, after losing the political battle, resorts to the STF in order to be able to count on the resources denied by the deputies. and senators?

Thus, advertising supporting the lira shows that Lula was unable to consolidate his position in the Legislative Assembly and even lost his positions.🇧🇷 This raises the question of how the future government will organize its base, based on such an unfavorable point (there are only 133 deputies in the left coalition).

There are two scenarios.

In the first, Lula decides to rule with a minority and begins to debate agenda after agenda, trying to attract detractors by practicing big retail in Congress and keeping her legislative agenda to the minimum possible. The other is to recognize an equal in the lyre, Just like Jair Bolsonaro did.by inviting him to take a leading role in the government’s agenda and participate (or his closest group) in the development of major decisions, continuing the semi-presidency that actually exists in Brazil today.

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The dollar continues to reflect the political scenario

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The dollar continues to reflect the political scenario

Yesterday, financial agents evaluated the opposite decision of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) regarding the so-called secret budget. In addition, a decision was made by STF Minister Gilmar Méndez to issue an injunction that would exclude the Bolsa Família from the spending cap rule, with investors trying to understand how this measure would affect the processing of the transitional PEC in the Chamber of Deputies. Oh this PEC!!!!

Since he is an exchange investor, any reading that the budget will be exceeded or become more flexible will negatively affect the exchange market, whether through the PEC or in any other way. We will continue with volatility today.

Looking beyond, the US Central Bank (Fed), although slowing down the pace of monetary tightening at its December meeting, issued a tougher-than-expected statement warning that its fight against inflation was not yet over, raising fears that rising US interest rates will push the world’s largest economy into recession.

The currency market continues to react to political news. The voting on the PEC is saved for today. It is expected that it will indeed be reviewed to open the way tomorrow for discussions on the 2023 budget.

Yesterday, the spot price closed the selling day at R$5.3103.

For today on the calendar we will have an index of consumer confidence in the eurozone. Good luck and good luck in business!!

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Andrés Sánchez consults with the Ministry of Sports, but refuses a political post.

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Goal.com

The former president of the Corinthians dreams of working for the CBF as a national team coordinator. He was consulted shortly after Lula’s election.

Former Corinthians president Andrés Sánchez was advised to take a position in the Ministry of Sports under the administration of Lula (PT). However, he ruled out a return to politics. dreams of taking over the coordination of CBF selectionHow do you know PURPOSE.

No formal invitation was made to the former Corinthian representative, only a consultation on a portfolio opportunity with the new federal government, which will be sworn in on January 1, 2023.

Andrés was the Federal MP for São Paulo from 2015 to 2019. At that time he was elected by the Workers’ Party. However, the football manager begs to stay in the sport, ruling out the possibility of getting involved in politics again.

Andrés Sanchez’s desire is to fill the position of CBF tackle coordinator, which should become vacant after the 2022 World Cup. Juninho Paulista fulfills this function in Brazil’s top football institution.

The former president of Corinthians was in Qatar to follow the World Cup along with other figures in Brazilian football. During his time in the country, he strengthened his ties with the top leadership of the CBF.

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The EU has reached a political agreement on limiting gas prices – 19.12.2022

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Germany sentenced Russian to life imprisonment for political murder by order of Moscow - 12/15/2021
BRUSSELS, DECEMBER 19 (ANSA). European Union countries reached a political agreement on Monday (19) to impose a natural gas price ceiling of 180 euros per megawatt hour (MWh). The main sources of income for Russia and the minimization of the use of energy as a weapon by the regime of Vladimir Putin.

The agreement was approved by a supermajority at a ministerial meeting of member states in Brussels, Belgium, after months of discussions about the best way to contain the rise in natural gas prices in the bloc caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. .

The value set by the countries is well below the proposal made by the European Commission, the EU’s executive body, in November: 275 EUR/MWh. However, the countries leading the cap campaign were in favor of an even lower limit, around 100 EUR/MWh.

Germany, always wary of price controls, voted in favor of 180 euros, while Austria and the Netherlands, also skeptical of the cap, abstained. Hungary, the most pro-Russian country in the EU, voted against.

The instrument will enter into force on 15 February, but only if natural gas prices on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange exceed 180 euros/MWh for three consecutive days. In addition, the difference compared to a number of global benchmarks should be more than 35 euros.

Italy, the EU’s biggest supporter of the ceiling, has claimed responsibility for the measure. “This is a victory for Italy, which believed and worked for us to reach this agreement,” Environment and Energy Minister Gilberto Picetto tweeted.

“This is a victory for Italian and European citizens who demand energy security,” he added.

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Currently, the gas price in Amsterdam is around 110 EUR/MWh, which is already a reflection of the agreement in Brussels – in August the figure even broke the barrier of 340 EUR/MWh.

However, Russia has already threatened to stop exports to countries that adhere to the ceiling. (ANSA).

See more news, photos and videos at www.ansabrasil.com.br.

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