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State elections show a clear trend towards continuity, says political scientist

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State elections show a clear trend towards continuity, says political scientist

Of the 20 governors seeking re-election this year, 12 have already reached their goal in the first round (60% of candidates), 6 are still going to run in the second round (30%), and only 2 did not pass and failed. no more chance of being re-elected (10%).

This is a record for first-round re-election in the states (the previous record was in 2010, when 10 governors were re-elected without running in a second round, according to the O Globo newspaper).

20 governors tried to be re-elected:

  • 12 have already passed in 1 round: AC, DF, GO, MA, MG, MT, PA, PR, RJ, RN, RR and TO
  • 6 in the 2nd round: AL, AM, ES, PB, RO and RS
  • 2 were defeated: SP and SC

Political scientist and Arko Advice analyst Carlos Borenstein says the gubernatorial election “shows very clearly a trend towards continuity in state contests.” In his opinion, “this trend can be explained by a number of factors”, but two stand out: the rejection of discourse against politics and the increase in government revenues.

“Return to normal life”

“The first [fator] is that the subversive elections we had in 2018 were very marked by a streak of victories – not only for Bolsonaro, who at the time held an anti-establishment narrative, but also for a number of governors who also followed that narrative,” he said. Borenstein.

The analysis was conducted during InfoMorning, a daily program InfoMoney which on Monday (3) focused on the results of the first round of elections (and its consequences). Watch the program in the video below.

“Now we have a change in this paradigm in 2022, a kind of return to normality,” the political scientist said. “The governors who won the elections in 2018 and are now running for re-election usually operate within traditional politics.”

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Borenstein cited the example of Minas Gerais Governor Romeu Zema (Novo), who was re-elected in the first round with 56% of the valid votes. “Even Zema, in Minas, which at that time [2018] elected by speech against the traditional policy of renewal, he created a very strong arc of alliances.”

In addition, 3 other non-governor candidates were also elected in the first round but received the support of the current chief executive: Clecio Luis (Solidariadade) in Amapa, Elmano de Freitas (Portugal) in Ceara and Rafael Fonteles. (PT). ), in Piaui.

SP and SC are exceptions

The only candidates for re-election who are no longer running are the governors of Sao Paulo, Rodrigo Garcia (PSDB) and Santa Catarina, Carlos Moises (Republicans). In both cases, they were “victims” of the polarization between President and re-election candidate Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and former President Lula (PT).

Em Sao Paulo, incumbent governor and re-election candidate Rodrigo Garcia (PSDB) received 18.4% of the valid votes (4.3 million) and was beaten by Tarcisio Freitas (Republicans) who finished 1st with 42.3% (9.9 million) and Fernando Haddado. (PT), who had 35.7% (8.3 million). Tarcisio is a former infrastructure minister under Bolsonaro and Haddad, a former education minister under Lula, and a former mayor of São Paulo.

Em Saint CatherineGovernor and re-election candidate Carlos Moises (R-P), who was elected in 2018 on a wave of Bolsonaris with 71% of the valid votes, dropped out of the runoff with just 17,433 votes.

This year, Bolsonaro’s candidate in the state is Senator Jorginho Melu (PL), who received 38.6% of the vote (1.5 million) and won first place. Decio Lima (Portugal) was the second most voted with 17.4% (710k votes), slightly ahead of Moises who received 16.9% of the votes (693k).

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6 governors in the 2nd round

The list of re-elected governors may increase even more because, in addition to the 12 governors who have already won, 6 more will fight in the second round on the 30th. (see controversy below, actors in bold).

  • Alagoas: Paulo Dantas (MDB) 46.6% x 26.8% Rodrigo Cunha (Brazil Union)
  • Amazonas: Wilson Lima (Union Brazil) 42.8% x 21% Eduardo Braga (MDB)
  • Holy Spirit: Renato Casagrande (PSB) 46.9% x 38.5% manat (PL)
  • Paraiba: Joao Azevedo (PSB) 39.6% x 23.9% Pedro Cunha Lima (PSDB)
  • Rio Grande do Sul: Onyx Lorenzoni (Poland) 37.5% x 26.8% Eduardo Leite (PSDB)
  • Rondonia: Colonel Marcos (Union of Brazil) 38.9% and 37% Marcos Rogerio (Poland)

All candidates for re-election, except Eduardo Leite (PSDB), in Rio Grande do Sul, finished the first round in the lead. Toucan is also the only one running for re-election without being in office, as he left the Piratini Palace in April to try to run for President of the Republic. But his party decided to support the candidacy of Simone Tebeta (MDB) in the race for the Palacio do Planalto.

The smallest advantage for second place was in Rondonia: Governor Coronel Marcos (União Brasil) received 38.9% of the valid vote, less than 2 percentage points ahead of Marcos Rogerio (PL) who had 37%.

Already Paraiba the difference was 15.7 percentage points, with incumbent Governor João Azevedo (PSB) receiving 39.6% of the valid votes, and in alagoas e no Holy Spirit the dispute almost ended on Sunday (2) as Paulo Dantas (MDB) and Renato Casagrande won over 46% of the vote.

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The greatest distance was Amazonas: Governor Wilson Lima (União Brasil) received twice as many votes as runner-up Eduardo Braga (MDB). Lima received 42.8% of the valid votes against 21% for the former governor and former mayor of Manaus (21.8 percentage points difference).

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Politics

The political future of Ramaphosa remains in doubt

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The political future of Ramaphosa remains in doubt

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The meeting of the ANC Executive Committee (NEC), which was supposed to discuss the future of party president Cyril Ramaphosa this afternoon, has been postponed after brief consultations on the Phala Phala saga and is expected to meet again on Sunday.

Cyril Ramaphosa’s political future remains in doubt after a meeting of the ANC’s executive committee, convened amid calls for the resignation of a president accused in a parliamentary report of violating his oath, was postponed.

National Chairman of the ANC Gwede Mantashe, who was present at the first consultations of the NEC, believes that the country will plunge into chaos if the president resigns. In turn, the Acting Secretary General of the ANC, Paul Mashatile, says that at the meeting of the ANC executive committee it was not discussed whether President Cyril Ramaphosa expressed his intention to resign.

In recent days, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, 70, who succeeded Jacob Zuma in 2018 with an anti-corruption postulate in South Africa, has found himself in a quandary after a parliamentary commission released a Monday report on Wednesday saying he may have violated the anti-corruption laws of his country.

According to this document, the South African head of state concealed from the police and tax authorities an alleged robbery attempt that took place in 2020 at his Phala Phala property, located in the north-east of the country.

Under the terms of a complaint filed in June last year by Ramaphosa’s political opponent, $580,000 worth of bills were found hidden in sofa cushions in one of the rooms of the house, located on the presidential property. Sources close to Ramaphosa claim that the banknotes correspond to the sale of cattle to a Sudanese businessman for cash.

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Faced with the scandal unleashed by these revelations, Parliament, in which the ANC has a majority, may have to decide next Tuesday on the possible launch of a process to remove the South African president.

This case occurs when only two weeks are left before the meeting at which the ANC will decide who will be its new president and, accordingly, the next head of state, if the opposition party wins in 2024. organization of early elections.

It should be remembered that the ANC has been in power in South Africa since 1994, after the first free elections in the country, which brought the historic anti-apartheid leader and ANC President Nelson Mandela to power.

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Andrei Sadi reveals the politician’s question and puts Andre Rizek in an unexpected situation.

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Andrea Sadi reveals a politician’s request regarding André Rijek’s work at the World Cup (Image: Reproduction – Instagram / Editing – RD1)

Andrea Sadi returned to work in this Tuesday (30) and was surprised early in the morning by an unexpected request involving a politician from Brazil and Andre Rizhekleading SportTV and husband of the GloboNews star.

Via Twitter, the Estúdio i host announced that she had resumed her role at GloboNews and launched investigations into the work of politicians during the transition of the federal government.

To Sadi’s surprise, the politician called him back before 9 am on Tuesday to ask a question that was not related to the political world. “Sadi, come here: Rizek thinks he will make it to the Selection? What’s the poll?reported.

Globo bets André Sadie and André Rižek on pay TV

As soon as Andrei Sadi was supposed to cover the presidential election, André Rizek was called up to the Qatar team for the World Cup. The duo divided tasks from home to work, each in their own journalistic role.

At the World Championships, André Rizhek made a sharp speech against prejudice and discrimination Argentines against Kylian Mbappe of France.

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Look who’s the politician arrested in today’s Operation GOE.

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Look who's the politician arrested in today's Operation GOE.

Ricardo Antunes – Former Jaboatão dos Guararapes adviser Carlinhos da Carreta was a politician arrested this Thursday (1st) by the Special Operations Group (GOE). The target of the action were, in addition to him, the civilian and military police. During the operation, about 64 million reais were blocked. The group is suspected of involvement in drug trafficking, murders and skilled robberies.

Carlinhos was a councilor in Jaboatau until 2020, when he ran for re-election from the PL and was defeated. He was from the base of the then mayor Anderson Ferreira (LP), who was a candidate for the government of Pernambuco in October and finished third. In the 2020 election, Anderson was re-elected in the first round.

Former councilor of Jaboatão dos Guararapes, Carlinhos da Carreta

Eight warrants were executed for search and forfeiture of the house, forfeiture of assets and freezing of financial assets, issued by the 2nd Criminal Court of the Jaboatão dos Guararapes Judicial District.

According to police, two Honda cars and another Audi car were confiscated. They were taken to the GOE headquarters in the Cordeiro area west of Recife, along with other frozen assets totaling BRL 64 million.

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