Brazil’s presidential election reached its final week with an analysis of the fallout from the arrest of former MP Roberto Jefferson (PTB) following resistance and attacks on federal police with firearms and grenades. However, a polarization scenario marked even before the election period points to a consolidated election and few opportunities for events to effectively influence polling results, according to political scientist Alberto Carlos Almeida.
For Almeida, author of Mão ea Luva: What Elects the President, the last stretch of the election is a fertile scenario for what he describes as a “magic thought” sparked by an analysis that seeks to link campaign-affecting events to a possible shift in popular voting.
“Micro-events happen, and everyone wants to analyze them, people believe in illusion, in magic. In fact, every time someone says that something is happening and there will be a change in voting, there is an explanation of electoral behavior in that person’s head, this explanation, in my opinion, is a magical explanation, and not a serious scientific discussion. . For example, the Roberto Jefferson event: everyone is very confused. They say this will affect the vote, but no one even knows exactly in which direction. It will happen that it will not affect anything or will affect very little, ”he estimates.
In an interview with Estado de Minas, Almeida says there is a claim to value that a voter has fickle allegiances to the point of being affected by every electoral move or event that is considered positive or negative for a candidate. The political scientist claims that the elections were little influenced by the events of the entire campaign and that in the specific case of this election, the figures of Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) further crystallize this scenario.
“In principle, this is a very long process. We have been campaigning since last year. An implicit campaign that began in March, when Federal Supreme Court (STF) Minister Edson Fachin nullified Lula’s lawsuits and returned him to court. Lula is well known as the most popular leader of all time on the Brazilian left, and Bolsonaro on the right. The choice is already set very quickly, and now, this last week, we will see discussions that contradict a very obvious fact: we have been in the context of a very set election for more than 12 months,” he notes.
According to the political scientist, there is a certain degree of contempt for the political consciousness of voters in “magical thinking” and in hyperanalysis, which is aggravated as we approach the end of the electoral period. For Almeida, to think that events close to election day could change the outcome of the vote is to think that the population can be easily fooled. “Solid preferences are being built, they may not be guided by the same values or set by the same criteria, but they are solid.”
Focus on the abstentions
More than 20% of Brazilian voters did not vote in the first round in 2022. The historical picture shows that this number usually increases in the second round, when the dispute is concentrated on leadership positions. However, in a polarized scenario where two names garnered over 90% of the valid votes, convincing the doubters and increasing their presence at the polls became a central strategy for Lula and Bolsonaro.
In recent speeches, two candidates in the Palacio do Planalto urged their supporters to focus on those who did not vote in the first round or who annulled the vote. Bolsonaro, for example, is working to fuel Lula’s opposition to try to convince those who didn’t go to the polls in the first round. PT is also trying to win zero and white votes from opposition to the incumbent, betting on voter transfers from Ciro Gomez (PDT) and Simone Tebet (MDB) and has repeatedly praised free public transport measures on Election Day. .
For Alberto Carlos Almeida, if there is movement in the campaigns to focus on the waverers and attack the abstentions, this indicates that the candidates themselves have already understood the scenario of consolidation between those who chose them in the first round and should repeat their vote per second.
“This is a real admission that you cannot vote. It is very difficult. And there is an additional situation, the available votes, which were Simone and Ciro, were already determined in the first week of the second round. These voters are also consolidated,” he adds.
Almeida is betting on an annulment rate lower than that reported in voter polls based on historical statistics. “Only in the 2018 elections, there was an increase in white and zero votes, but it was a time when there was a big wave of people who were not going to vote for either Fernando Haddad (PT) or Bolsonaro.” In the second round of the last presidential election, 9.59% of voters decided not to choose any of the candidates.
For a political scientist, however, the strategy of reducing abstentions may not work. “I am very skeptical about reducing abstinence. It has a migratory component, so there is a gender of abstentions, people who move and do not transfer the title. There is also a component of disinterest in voting. There are people who have not voted for many years.”
second round long
“Constitutionally, elections are held with the first round on the first Sunday in October and the second round on the last. This year there was a break of four weeks between the votings, this is a very long period, and the result may show that the second round campaigns are ineffective in converting votes,” says Almeida.
Since the redemocratization, this is the seventh presidential election, the decision of which will be made in the second round. So far there has never been a tipping point and the trend is towards stability. In the three times he advanced to the second round, Lula scored at least 12 points over the original vote. In 2018, Bolsonaro won from 46% to 55% of the valid votes between the ballots.
In 1989, Lula lost the election to Fernando Collor de Mello, but received the largest runoff margin for the losing candidate, up 29.8 percentage points. Almeida points out that the election, however, was different: the votes in the first round were split among several candidates, as opposed to 2022, when “third way” names could not even garner 10% of the valid votes when added.
ISabel dos Santos, a businesswoman who has been issued an international arrest warrant by Interpol at the request of the Angolan government, claims that she, like her family, is the target of “political persecution”. In an interview with TVI/CNN, he also accuses Attorney General of Angola on “receiving an order from President João Lourenço”.
Neither party reveals where the conversation is taking place, the businesswoman uses the term justice – a form of warfare in which the law is used as a weapon to justify the charges against him in Angola. “The law is used to fight an economic or political adversary”she says, emphasizing that “you don’t want competition in politics in Angola” and placing herself in the role of Joao Lourenço’s political opponent.
Asked if she has political ambitions in her country, she opens the door for her candidacy. “I have no doubt that in one way or another I will contribute to the political future of my country”he guarantees by listing the main problems of the country, such as social issues and fertility issues.
“I believe that the political parties in power and the opposition do not look at these issues. No vision, no plan”he says, adding that he is striving for “another country.”
“When I arrived [à Sonagol] there was no money to pay wages”
Taking into account SonangolJosé Eduardo dos Santos’s daughter says that at the time the Angolan State Ministry asked one of its companies to provide advice on “the restructuring of the oil sector” and that she was “personally invited to serve as chairman of the non-executive board.” directors.” “When I arrived, there was no money to pay wages”he says, saying that the company was known to be “bankrupt”.
“What I want today is an acknowledgment from PGR and the government that this story about no consultants being there and not getting paid is not true. And what is very annoying is that they use this very story to then issue either warrants, or restrictive maneuvers, or even arrests.”He says.
already about Luanda Leaks, says that “it was João Lourenzo’s design” and that he has proof of what he claims. “Who reads 715,000 documents? It’s impossible. And to date, no one has seen them. We saw 140 and most of them are completely harmless,” he says.
Never been asked to “invest in Portugal”
As regards the case of Portugal, he says that relations with the country have always been “through private investment” that there have never been specific requests – from the government of Portugal – “to invest in Portugal” and who doesn’t know if phone call from the coast – it happened because of her.
When asked about her connection with Russia, Isabelle dos Santos spoke about the culture and history of this country, and when asked if she was thinking about moving to Russia, Isabelle dos Santos answered only that she had a “special attachment” to this country. “This is my mother’s land. Therefore, this is a place where I have a family and which I respect a lot, with a phenomenal culture,” he said.
Regarding the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, he replied that he hoped that the conflict would be resolved. “Peace matters to everyone”he concluded.
Helder Pitta Gros, speaking in Luanda on the sidelines of a Board of Directors meeting, said he did not know the whereabouts of the daughter of the former President of Angola, and claims that several attempts were made to interrogate the businesswoman, who, in an interview with the German broadcaster DW and on her social networks, she always insisted on the fact that she is ready to clarify the “untruth” about her, saying that she is not interesting to listen to.
Returning to Brasilia, President-elect of the Republic, Luis Inacio Lula da Silvatook over the first political commands responsible for the “overall coordination” of the transition: he authorized the PT to conclude an agreement on the resumption Arthur Lyra (PP-AL) to the President of the House and invited allied parliamentarians to submit a PEC that would free up space for social spending – just like the draft presented by Vice President-elect Geraldo Alkmin, leaders of both chambers.
The text, vehemently rejected by the market, provides for a “waiver” of 175 billion reais and an additional exemption from the public investment ceiling of 22 billion reais. The term for exclusion of social programs from the budget rules remains equal to 4 years.
The idea behind the Lulista headquarters is to delegate to the Legislature the changes in values and deadlines requested by the elected government, a reduction process that is most likely today among deputies and senators.
According to Lula, the two measures taken this Monday (November 28) serve to “unblock” the process, as there are concerns about the final procedure before December 15, the date when the Bolsa Família payments of 600 reais will be made from January. .
Despite practical arrangements, Lula’s return to the Centro Cultural Banco do Brasil (CCBB), headquarters of the transition group’s offices, was marked by the president-elect’s demands for assistants involved in the creation of the 31 thematic groups. Petista wants detailed reports by region and with numbers that show the severity of the problems he claims he inherited from Jair Bolsonaro.
Lulu worries about the availability of resources to maintain basic services. According to his closest advisers, the discussion of the backbone of the PEC with Congress should take into account the problems of its management, in addition to simply guaranteeing the continuity of social programs.
The plan recommended by Lula is for working group representatives to make public presentations of the data and explain the bottlenecks of each folder, just as the health diagnostics team did. The next board to comment on the lack of resources and operational challenges in the area in January will be Education on Tuesday (11/29).
Lula told allies it was important that congressmen decide that the PEC would be fully aware of what he calls “the dramatic picture of the federal machine” in 2023. “We are not asking for much, given the cursed legacy. We ask for what is needed. And this should be clear to Congress, which has its own claims, and they are legal. The budgetary framework is the worst possible,” he tells reporters. WHOM source is aware of these negotiations.
The participation of Fernando Haddad, who accompanies Lula on his trip to the capital, in political meetings with parties not part of the winning coalition but “meeting” with the future government base, is further evidence that the president-elect is still working with the priority hypothesis. political profile for the Ministry of Finance.
Lula’s interlocutors interpreted Haddad’s participation in Friday’s Febraban dinner as a “trap” for bankers who want to take the former Sao Paulo mayor out of the race for the treasury.
Haddad’s vague speech, which caused the stock market to crash and the dollar to rise, was deemed “relevant” by Lula precisely because it confirms what the president-elect was saying to this public in a financial system that prioritizes the economy. growth with robust social investment at the expense of fiscal austerity.
Fabio Zambeli – Chief Analyst in Sao Paulo. Journalist with 28 years of experience covering politics and three powers in Sao Paulo and Brazil. He was a reporter and editor for the Folha de S. Paulo and Director of Intelligence and Public Affairs at the FSB Comunicação. Email address: [email protected]
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Last September, the politician gave an interview about the murder of his wife (ANN archive)
Monday (28) police announced the arrest political, Representative of the Legislative Assembly of Nagano Prefecture 丸山大輔, 48, as a suspect in the murder of his wife希美, aged 47, was found dead on September 29 last year on the first floor of a house next to the sake factory in Shiojiri (Nagano).
According to policea politician’s wife died of asphyxiation caused by asphyxiation and the estimated time of death was in the early morning of the same day.
The husband was excluded from the number of suspects in murder because it was alibisaying that he was in the House of Representatives because there was a meeting in the morning.
husband and political who was arrested, was born into a sake-producing family founded in 1883, and graduated from the economics department of the renowned Keio University.
A member of the Liberal Democratic Party (PLD), he began his career as a legislator for the city of Shiojiri in 2015 and was elected as a provincial representative in 2019. Nagano.
As Nozomi’s wife was lying near the office safe, it was suspected that she wanted the money, but doubts were in the air as there was no sign that it had been broken into from the inside.