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The ECB raises interest rates by 75 basis points. What is this increase? – Markets

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The ECB raises interest rates by 75 basis points.  What is this increase?  - Markets
The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to raise base interest rates in the euro area for the second time in a row. The Monetary Authority, led by Christine Lagarde, announced Historic 75 basis point gain at three rates, in line with market expectations. He also said that he would raise interest rates in the eurozone “several times” more until the rise in prices slowed down.

On the other hand, in the presented new projections This Thursday, after a meeting of the Board of Governors, the ECB said it expects higher inflation and slower economic growth in the euro area from next year. Monetary authorities now expect eurozone inflation to reach 8.1% in 2022, compared to the 6.8% estimate set in June. For 2023, the forecast rises to 5.5% (from 3.5%), and for 2024 to 2.3% (two tenths more).

With regard to the debt purchase program, the ECB guarantees that it will continue to fully reinvest amounts maturing under the regular program.
What did Lagarde say?

“Inflation remains too high and is likely to remain above our target for an extended period of time,” President Christine Lagarde warned at a press conference that followed the meeting. “Although supply constraints are easing, they continue to gradually affect consumer prices and put pressure on inflation, as does the recovery in demand in the service sector.”

“Given our current assessment, we expect to raise interest rates further at several future meetings to dampen demand and guard against the risk of rising high inflation expectations,” he added.

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How did the markets react?

In response to this decision, the main European markets began to decline and reversed the growth achieved in the early morning. However, on the heels of the banking sector – the main beneficiary of the ECB decision – managed to restoreexcept for the German index, which ended at the waterline, with a slight devaluation.

The euro made the opposite move. It rose above parity with the dollar, falling later, after the speech of the chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, who also assured that the Fed maintain monetary tightening. Interest in eurozone sovereign debt has worsened.

What does this decision mean?

The ECB does not directly intervene in inflation, however, through its monetary policy instruments (especially interest rates), it tries to influence household and business spending and, consequently, the prices of goods and services. It may take several quarters before the decision is fully reflected in the economy.

The most immediate reaction to changes in these interest rates will be the Euribor (which is determined by the average at which the 57 eurozone banks lend money to each other in the interbank market), the rate at which most Portuguese home loans are indexed. .

With this historic growth of the ECB, Euribor is also expected to rise. This Thursday, Euribor rates fell to six months to 1.354%, to 12 months to 1.903% and rose to three months to 0.836% compared to Wednesday, hitting a new high.

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Economy

Home loan: Interest rates have already risen more than in the 2008 crisis See how far they can go

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Home loan: Interest rates have already risen more than in the 2008 crisis See how far they can go

Installments will increase sharply from next week, when October begins. Interest rates are rising rapidly to 3% and the OECD already allows rates at 4%. This is TVI’s new weekly feature, “People Are Not Numbers.”

Do you have a home loan? So get ready: October will be the first month you’ll experience a significant increase in mortgage payments.

Nearly 19 out of 20 mortgages in Portugal have variable interest rates, with payments being reviewed every three, six or 12 months according to the contract index. However, the update is based on the average Euribor for the previous month. And September was the first month when the average Euribor was much higher. That’s why the big effects start in October. Next week.

The six-month Euribor (most used in Portugal) is about two percentage points higher than it was six months ago in March. And the 12-month Euribor (the second most used) is almost 2.5 percentage points from what it was a year ago.

Hence the simulations. For example, for a loan of 150 thousand euros for 30 years, indexed to Euribor for 6 months, the installment will increase by 141 euros, from 454 to 595 euros. In the same example, but with indexation to Euribor for 12 months, it is worse: the increase in October, that the installment plan will be revised, will be 194 euros.

21 more years to pay

More than 1.43 million Portuguese families owe a total of more than 100 billion euros in mortgage loans. And on average, it takes about 21 years to repay a loan.

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This means that only with the currently confirmed increase in the Euribor rate, Portuguese families will pay at least another two billion euros per year.

What is the average performance?

But how much do the Portuguese owe today and how much do they pay?

On average, each Portuguese with a mortgage loan owes the bank about 60,000 euros and pays 268 euros per month. These people will pay about 100 euros more per month.

But if you look at who bought a house in the last three months, and the most expensive houses, then the average debt is 128 thousand euros, and the monthly payment is 445 euros. Benefit, which will increase to about 200 euros per month.

And in the future? Adults without time and younger without money

In the future, it will be more difficult to buy a house on credit. For three reasons:

Firstly, because the loan is more expensive, so the installment plan will put more pressure on the family income. And this will force the banks themselves to say “no” more often, rejecting offers from customers who want to buy a house.

Secondly, because older people have less time. From April 1, the Bank of Portugal introduced new age rules, which in practice reduce the loan repayment period from 40 to 30 years. And that means higher monthly payments. Only up to 30 years old can get a 40-year loan. The problem is that…

… Thirdly, the younger one has no money. Housing is one of the biggest problems for young people and even one of the reasons why young people do not leave their parents’ homes.

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Portugal is indeed a European Union country where young people leave home later, at an average age of 33 years and 7 months (women leave later than men). This is almost seven years later than the EU average, and, for example, almost 15 years later than the Swedes.

Interest rates will continue to rise?

You can remove the question mark: interest rates will continue to rise. Yesterday, the ECB signaled that it would raise interest rates again in October by at least another 0.5 percentage points, and it does not stop there. For this reason, the Euribor (which has now already exceeded 2.5% in 12 months when it was negative a year ago) is rapidly approaching 3%.

Worse, in a report released yesterday, the OECD made an assessment that went unnoticed: it already allows central bank interest rates at 4%.

Yes, rates will go up.

Euribor has already risen more than the financial crisis

This is another aspect that has gone unnoticed. Many people ask if Euribor will be able to reach the record set in October 2008, at the height of the financial crisis, when it exceeded 5.5%. Everything will depend on the evolution of inflation, but even the pessimism of the OECD does not indicate such high values.

It turns out that not the value of Euribor, but its growth this year is already greater than in 2008. That year, the Euribor rose from February to September by about 1.1 percentage points, from about 4.2% to 5.5%.

This year, the 12-month Euribor, for example, rose from a negative 0.4% in early February to over 2.5% in early October.

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So installments are not as expensive as they were then, but they have more than doubled from the year that banks like Lehman Brothers or, in Portugal, BPN and BPP collapsed.

This analysis is carried out in a new feature called “People are not numbers”, which will be broadcast every Tuesday on the TVI program Jornal das 8.

Note. Cited sources of information

Bank of Portugal

Credit Market Monitoring Report

Interest rates and amounts of new loans and deposits: statistical information for July 2022

Non-financial sector debt

Amounts-Credits-Private UM-housing-M€ (new operations)

INE

Mortgage Interest Rates – August

interest rates

Evribor

ECB key rates

OECD

Economic Outlook Interim Report September 2022: Payback for War

Eurostat

Leaving home: young Europeans spread their wings

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Economy

House valuations fell by three euros, and the number of orders fell in three months | Frame

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House valuations fell by three euros, and the number of orders fell in three months |  Frame

The average value of the bank’s valuation in August was 1414 euros, which is three euros less than in the previous month, which indicates a slight slowdown in the value of houses in the context of new loans. This sign is accompanied by two other signs of slowdown, one is the year-on-year growth of 15.8%, down from the 16.1% recorded in June, and the other is the number of evaluation requests that have bounced back. the fall.

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Economy

The Lightyear 0 continues to break records and become the most aerodynamic car in the world…and it’s powered by solar energy.

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The Lightyear 0 continues to break records and become the most aerodynamic car in the world...and it's powered by solar energy.

The Lightyear 0 never ceases to amaze: in tests conducted in Germany under the WLTP homologation cycle, the electric car, which can also be powered by solar energy, scored 0.175, the lowest score of any production car in history. But this is not an absolute record.

Lighter assured that the result is surprising even for engineers who expected a value of about 0.19. Ario Van der Ham, the company’s technical director, admitted: “We are very proud of this result. We started from scratch when we began to study the machine and its technologies. We’ve put a lot of effort into this.”

The Lightyear 0 managed to beat the previous record set by the 1996 GM EV1, which was 0.19. For example, the two most aerodynamic cars sold today are the Mercedes EQS and Tesla Model S, with claimed values ​​of 0.20 and 0.208, respectively.

However, if we also take concept cars into account, the Lightyear 0 is not the most aerodynamic car – the Mercedes Vision EQXX, introduced this year, scored 0.17 points, while the JCB Dieselmax, a prototype built to set the speed record in category of diesel vehicles. , it had a coefficient of 0.147.

946 examples of the electric sedan were produced, just over 5 meters long, capable of covering almost 625 km on the WLTP cycle thanks to a 60 kWh battery, a 170 hp electric motor. and solar power, which on its own, according to the Dutch manufacturer, it can travel up to 70 km a day.

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With a base price of 250 to 300 thousand euros, this model is clearly beyond the reach of any budget. However, after 0, Lightyear is already working on a more affordable entry-level model, which has a list price of around 30,000 euros and is scheduled to launch in 2026.

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