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Ricardo Evangelista. “Families will have to start saving because mortgage payments will increase”

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Ricardo Evangelista.  “Families will have to start saving because mortgage payments will increase”

In less than two months, the European Central Bank is preparing to raise interest rates again. And while the hopeful outlook points to 0.5% growth, some say it could reach 0.75%, hitting those who have credit or are thinking about taking out a loan. In an interview with i Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades, has no doubt: “The question is no longer whether the ECB will raise interest rates or not. How much will it rise?” And in the face of this, he admits: “Families will have to start saving more because mortgage payments are rising, credit is getting more expensive, and even those things that are sometimes bought and that are a little extravagant are no longer available. be able to buy so easily.”


And he recalls that unlike what happened during the 2008/2009 crisis, when central banks were “very big hands and started monstrous buying programs, cut interest rates to low levels”, while governments took much more austerity “as if it were almost a cult of austerity”, now the roles are reversed.


And he admits without hesitation that “inflation is becoming a very big problem and that the end justifies the means”, hence understands the ECB’s interest rate hike at the next meeting on 8 September.


As a solution, Ricardo Evangelista acknowledges that all governments “are forced to take a more generous stance towards citizens and, above all, to avoid austerity scenarios that will further exacerbate this crisis.” But leaves a guarantee: “I would not want to be in the place of the people who have to make these decisions.”

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Everything points to the fact that at the next meeting the European Central Bank (ECB) will once again raise interest rates. After it went up more than expected in July…


The trend is upward, and for now, a new interest rate hike is expected to be announced on September 8th.


So, is this new ascent inevitable?


I think so. The question is no longer whether interest rates will rise or not. How much will it rise? I can give you a forecast, I believe it will rise by 0.50%. Until recently, everyone expected growth to remain at 25 basis points, or 0.25%, but since then, several members of the ECB have spoken publicly, even this past weekend, during the Jackson Hole symposium in the United States. States where everyone assumed that the European Central Bank was really determined to control consumer price growth, to control inflation. This expectation indicating a 25 bps increase has now been lifted and everything points to a 50 bps increase scenario and even this week it was said that it could reach 75 bps. , which is almost 1%. If this more aggressive scenario materializes, I think the implications for the Portuguese market will be felt, especially in terms of Euribor rate hikes. In other words, mortgage payments will certainly rise, consumer loans will become more expensive, and this can lead to a domino effect in the economy, leading to higher unemployment due to reduced corporate investment. It could also cause a crisis for many businesses, which will be affected by the decline in economic activity on the part of families. In other words, families will have to start saving more because mortgage payments are going up, credit is getting more expensive, and things that are sometimes bought and are a little extravagant can no longer be bought so easily. All of this together has an impact on economic activity. However, everything will depend on the extent of the interest rate increase that will be announced on the 8th. If it is 25 basis points, then I think the impact will be diluted a little, but if more, then everything indicates that it will be at least 50 basis points, then yes, we will have the scenario that I described, in which life becomes more expensive and more difficult for families, and which will later have consequences for companies.

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Families and businesses will have to pay the bill….


Clean.









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Economy

Red tide in Europe. Eurozone interest rates worsen – markets in a minute

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Red tide in Europe.  Eurozone interest rates worsen – markets in a minute

Natural gas extends losses after Gazprom’s supplies to Italy resume. Oil maintains uptrend

Oil has benefited from a price rally as investors anticipated the biggest cut in oil production adopted by OPEC+ since 2020.

The group will cut capacity by two million barrels a day, more than double what was originally envisaged, and the cut will help balance oil prices at a time when the global economy is expected to slow down.

“A cut of two million barrels a day shows how aggressive they want to be on prices,” said Vishnu Varatan, Asia head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank.

In response, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), traded in New York, has risen 9% over the past two sessions to break $86 a barrel. By 08:00 Lisbon time, WTI was at the waterline, adding a very small 0.03% to $86.55.

Brent crude, traded in London and a benchmark for the European market, rose 0.17% to $91.96 per barrel.

In turn, natural gas (TTF) prices, which reached July lows yesterday in the Amsterdam market, continued to decline this morning, falling by 1.2% to 160 euros per megawatt-hour.

Raw materials continued to fall after Gazprom announced this Wednesday that it would resume gas supplies to Italy. The Russian company “together with Italian buyers managed to find a solution” after the September regulatory changes in Austria, which made it difficult to supply gas to Italy, Gazprom said in Telegram.

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TAP orders dozens of BMWs for CEOs and top directors – Observer

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TAP orders dozens of BMWs for CEOs and top directors - Observer

TAP has ordered dozens of BMW vehicles for its executives and top directors, plugin hybrids and with a market value of 52 to 65 thousand euros. The vehicles, which will begin arriving early next year, will replace the airline’s current fleet of mostly Peugeot vehicles. promoted Tuesday on CNN Portugal.

TAP justifies the purchase of “plug-in hybrid vehicles instead of current diesel ones” on “environmental reasons”, as well as “tax incentives associated with these less polluting vehicles.”

At a time when TAP is pursuing a rescue program that amounts to 3.2 billion euros from taxpayers, CNN Portugal asked the airline why it is not considering lower cost vehicles. The company responded that “the options available to directors have also begun to include the brand. premiumas it has a higher rent compared to other brands thanks to a better residual value at the end of the contract.”

CNN Portugal reports that it had access to an initial order for 79 BMW Series 5, X2 and X3 vehicles. OUR the airline guarantees the availability of 50 “units” and that “a tender was held in the market in accordance with the TAP procurement guidelines and six companies in the Portuguese market were invited to participate” whose names were not released.

TAP also said it would spend less money on rent (monthly lease payments) of new fleet vehicles compared to the old one. However, he did not say what the monthly cost of the new fleet is.

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TAP orders dozens of BMWs, receiving government money

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TAP orders dozens of BMWs, receiving government money

TAP ordered a new fleet of BMW vehicles from its managers to replace the old fleet of Peugeot vehicles. The carrier guarantees that it even saves money. The company is implementing a rescue program that amounts to 3.2 billion euros from taxpayers.

TAP has ordered dozens of BMWs from its general managers, improving the profile of its current fleet of mostly Peugeot vehicles. The new cars have a market value of between 52,000 and 65,000 euros, are plug-in hybrids, and will start arriving early next year.

According to TVI/CNN Portugal internal documentation and portal away – the bodies of the Media Capital group – had access, we are talking about an initial order for 79 cars from the 5, X3 and X2 series of the German brand. TAP, when confronted, guarantees that there are only 50 vehicles. The real number is not indifferent: if there are 79, TAP not only improves its fleet, but also increases it.

These cars are intended for executive directors and top directors of the airline. And they are concluded with the company through “lease” agreements, that is, monthly lease payments for each vehicle. TAP guarantees it will spend less money on the new fleet compared to the old one, but it’s unclear why it hasn’t considered cheaper brands.

cars

The new TAP fleet consists exclusively of plug-in hybrid models, which are more environmentally friendly and have lower CO2 emissions, as well as the ability to drive only in electric mode.

At the top of the park are the sporty BMW 530e and the BMW X3 xDrive 30e SUV, both with 292 hp engines, claimed fuel consumption of 1.8 to 2.6 liters per 100 km and an estimated range in electric mode of 61 or 50 kilometers. , respectively. Retail prices for these models start at €65,120 for the 530e and €65,870 for the X3.

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Most of this new fleet is made up of the BMW X2 xDrive 25e, with a 220 horsepower engine capable of consuming 1.8 liters per 100 km. The cost of PVP starts at 52,409 euros.

When contacting TAP, they did not answer about the monthly cost of a new park. Based on market modeling (without negotiating a discount that will be managed by TAP), the provision of these cars can range from €608.94 + VAT (for a BMW X2 xDrive 25e with 15,000 kilometers per year and 72 months) to €857.72 + VAT (for BMW X3 xDrive 30e Pack M for the same 15,000 kilometers per year for 48 months).

Meet the new BMW X2 xDrive 25e in this video.

The company guarantees that it saves money

“The current rental fleet is mainly from 2017 and the maximum number of renewals possible in the contract will be reached in 2023,” explains TAP, which justifies the purchase of “plug-in hybrid vehicles instead of the current diesel one for environmental reasons, but also for tax benefits associated with these less polluting vehicles.”

“This option represents a savings of more than 20% monthly rent and taxes on new leasing contracts for vehicles with similar characteristics to the current (diesel), which is in line with the restructuring plan, as it represents the lowest possible cost in a tendered market.”

Asked by CNN/TVI/Away why TAP isn’t considering lower cost new vehicles given they’re under a government salvage program, the company replied that “the options available to directors also include a premium brand because it has higher rent compared to other brands due to better residual value at the end of the contract.” In addition, “this option also provides better vehicle delivery times, given the manufacturing crisis that the automotive market is experiencing.”

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TAP reiterates that “there are 50 units and not the 79 mentioned” and guarantees that “the market was tendered in accordance with the TAP procurement manual and six organizations were invited to participate in the Portuguese market”. The company did not distinguish which companies they were.

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