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How to protect a portfolio from political risk? – Chat, Cafe and Profits – Estadão E-Investidor – Top financial market news

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O Ibovespa jumped from 103,164.69 points to 109,522.88 points in August, up 6.16%. It was the highest monthly increase in B3 since January, when the index rose by 6.98%. At the beginning of the month, between the 2nd and 10th, the Brazilian stock market managed to make seven consecutive highs. The longest positive streak since March of this year allowed the index to rise above 110,000 points, a level not seen since early June.

But what was the main catalyst for the rise? The August issue of Papo Café & Profits deepens this analysis and shows the main events in the financial market that marked the month.

How can the proximity of elections affect investments? In that exclusive videoChief Economist at B.Side Investimentos, Helena Veronese and Armstrong Hashimoto, partner at Venice Investimentos, talk about the best investment opportunities to protect a portfolio from the current volatile scenario.

“Elections always add volatility to the market. Polls show that, most likely, there will be a second round. Everything largely depends on the economic proposals of the candidates, but this is a period of instability,” says Voronese.

“This election has a component that can reduce volatility a bit, which is the presence of two candidates that the voter already knows. Since these two (Bolsonaro and Lula) have already taken the presidency, this partly eliminates the element of complete surprise, ”emphasizes Hashimoto.

What to do to protect the portfolio from political risk? Watch!

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Politics

At least 21 politicians who were already on the radar of Operation Lava-Yato are expected to remain on the political scene in 2023.

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Eleven goals of Lava-Yato receive a parliamentary mandate. (Photo: Antonio Cruz/Agência Brasil)

At least 21 politicians who were already on the radar of Operation Lava Jato should remain in the political arena in 2023. Twelve of them were elected last Sunday to legislative and executive positions – 11 won seats in the Chamber of Deputies, while Gladson Kameli (PP) won the race for Acre’s government. Another seven remained as deputies, while six were not elected.

Esio Neves (PSDB-MG), Afonso Hamm (PP-RS), Aguinaldo Ribeiro (PP-PB), Artur Lira (PP-AL) – Acting President of the Chamber, Beto Richa (PSDB-PR) will be in the Chamber in 2023. , Joao Leao (PP-BA), Lindbergh Farias (PT-RJ), Luis Fernando Faria (PSD-MG), Mario Negromonte Jr. (PP-BA), Rosana Sarny (MDB-MA) and Vander Lube (PT-MS) .

Kaka Leao (PP-BA) and Romero Huca (MDB-RR), who were running for Senate seats, were not counted; Eduardo Cunha (PTB-SP) and Delcidio Amaral (PTB-MS), federal candidates; and Fernando Collor (PTB-AL) and Luis Carlos Heinze (PP-RS), who sued state governments. Former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) runs in the second round of elections in Planalto.

On the other front, the executioners of these politicians had significant voices. Associated with União Brasil, former judge Sergio Moro, who led Lava Hato at first instance, was elected senator for Paraná with 1,953,188 votes, deposing Álvaro Díaz (Podemos).

“Phoenix”

Former federal prosecutor Deltan Dallagnol (Podemos) received 344,917 votes for a seat in the Chamber of Deputies. Former task force coordinator for Lava Jato in Curitiba, he has spoken to prominent political figures such as Glazi Hoffmann of the PT (elected with 261,247 votes), Ricardo Barros of the PP (107,022 votes) and Luisa Canziani of the PSD (74,643 votes). In an interview with Estadão on Monday, Dallagnol spoke of Lava Jato’s “rebirth” like a Phoenix.

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“The operation changed the course of the global political system and the system of competition in political disputes in Brazil,” says FGV professor Marco Antonio Carvalho Teixeira. However, for him, the election of so many candidates who passed investigations indicates that the political consequences of this “were left behind.”

recall

According to Professor UniRio and Doctor of Political Science Fabio Kerche, “There are sections of society that regard Moro and Dallagnol as heroes.” He links the election of the two to the “withdrawal” of the operation, which began in 2014.

Kerche sees similarities between the developments of Lava Jato and Mãos Limpas that took place in Italy. “It was also possible to elect the prosecutors and justices of the peace who took part. They left “judicial politics” and moved on to “party politics”.