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Home loan: Interest rates have already risen more than in the 2008 crisis See how far they can go

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Home loan: Interest rates have already risen more than in the 2008 crisis See how far they can go

Installments will increase sharply from next week, when October begins. Interest rates are rising rapidly to 3% and the OECD already allows rates at 4%. This is TVI’s new weekly feature, “People Are Not Numbers.”

Do you have a home loan? So get ready: October will be the first month you’ll experience a significant increase in mortgage payments.

Nearly 19 out of 20 mortgages in Portugal have variable interest rates, with payments being reviewed every three, six or 12 months according to the contract index. However, the update is based on the average Euribor for the previous month. And September was the first month when the average Euribor was much higher. That’s why the big effects start in October. Next week.

The six-month Euribor (most used in Portugal) is about two percentage points higher than it was six months ago in March. And the 12-month Euribor (the second most used) is almost 2.5 percentage points from what it was a year ago.

Hence the simulations. For example, for a loan of 150 thousand euros for 30 years, indexed to Euribor for 6 months, the installment will increase by 141 euros, from 454 to 595 euros. In the same example, but with indexation to Euribor for 12 months, it is worse: the increase in October, that the installment plan will be revised, will be 194 euros.

21 more years to pay

More than 1.43 million Portuguese families owe a total of more than 100 billion euros in mortgage loans. And on average, it takes about 21 years to repay a loan.

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This means that only with the currently confirmed increase in the Euribor rate, Portuguese families will pay at least another two billion euros per year.

What is the average performance?

But how much do the Portuguese owe today and how much do they pay?

On average, each Portuguese with a mortgage loan owes the bank about 60,000 euros and pays 268 euros per month. These people will pay about 100 euros more per month.

But if you look at who bought a house in the last three months, and the most expensive houses, then the average debt is 128 thousand euros, and the monthly payment is 445 euros. Benefit, which will increase to about 200 euros per month.

And in the future? Adults without time and younger without money

In the future, it will be more difficult to buy a house on credit. For three reasons:

Firstly, because the loan is more expensive, so the installment plan will put more pressure on the family income. And this will force the banks themselves to say “no” more often, rejecting offers from customers who want to buy a house.

Secondly, because older people have less time. From April 1, the Bank of Portugal introduced new age rules, which in practice reduce the loan repayment period from 40 to 30 years. And that means higher monthly payments. Only up to 30 years old can get a 40-year loan. The problem is that…

… Thirdly, the younger one has no money. Housing is one of the biggest problems for young people and even one of the reasons why young people do not leave their parents’ homes.

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Portugal is indeed a European Union country where young people leave home later, at an average age of 33 years and 7 months (women leave later than men). This is almost seven years later than the EU average, and, for example, almost 15 years later than the Swedes.

Interest rates will continue to rise?

You can remove the question mark: interest rates will continue to rise. Yesterday, the ECB signaled that it would raise interest rates again in October by at least another 0.5 percentage points, and it does not stop there. For this reason, the Euribor (which has now already exceeded 2.5% in 12 months when it was negative a year ago) is rapidly approaching 3%.

Worse, in a report released yesterday, the OECD made an assessment that went unnoticed: it already allows central bank interest rates at 4%.

Yes, rates will go up.

Euribor has already risen more than the financial crisis

This is another aspect that has gone unnoticed. Many people ask if Euribor will be able to reach the record set in October 2008, at the height of the financial crisis, when it exceeded 5.5%. Everything will depend on the evolution of inflation, but even the pessimism of the OECD does not indicate such high values.

It turns out that not the value of Euribor, but its growth this year is already greater than in 2008. That year, the Euribor rose from February to September by about 1.1 percentage points, from about 4.2% to 5.5%.

This year, the 12-month Euribor, for example, rose from a negative 0.4% in early February to over 2.5% in early October.

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So installments are not as expensive as they were then, but they have more than doubled from the year that banks like Lehman Brothers or, in Portugal, BPN and BPP collapsed.

This analysis is carried out in a new feature called “People are not numbers”, which will be broadcast every Tuesday on the TVI program Jornal das 8.

Note. Cited sources of information

Bank of Portugal

Credit Market Monitoring Report

Interest rates and amounts of new loans and deposits: statistical information for July 2022

Non-financial sector debt

Amounts-Credits-Private UM-housing-M€ (new operations)

INE

Mortgage Interest Rates – August

interest rates

Evribor

ECB key rates

OECD

Economic Outlook Interim Report September 2022: Payback for War

Eurostat

Leaving home: young Europeans spread their wings

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Economy

Portugal Could Become a Reshoring Hub in Europe According to New Report – Executive Digest

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Portugal Could Become a Reshoring Hub in Europe According to New Report - Executive Digest

European companies are looking in the EMEA region (which covers Europe, the Middle East and Africa) for an alternative to manufacturing and sourcing in Ukraine and Asia after months of supply chain disruptions, according to a new Supply Chain Disruptions report sponsored by JLL.

According to this report, there are several companies operating in the retail and manufacturing sectors that have already decided to partially or completely redistribute their production, and the data shows that the new European beneficiaries of the “reorientation” are Central Europe and Romania, and the European borders with Turkey and Morocco are also on the radar.

This trend follows a pandemic that has caused disruption in distribution networks and serious problems in ports and airports, so companies have begun to choose “reshoring” as an attempt to solve the problem of disruption in supply chains.

JLL also expects that the shortage of land and labor will boost demand in Central Europe, from the primary market to the secondary and tertiary markets, the latter strategically located.

Data from Flexport (a global logistics platform) shows that the average container flight from Asia to Europe has almost doubled since 2019, and Buck Consultants International (BCI) research confirms the same as JLL: more than 60% of US and European companies plan to send part of their products back to their country of origin.

Given the existing transport networks and logistics gateways, it can be said that goods will circulate primarily along two distribution corridors: the traditional European dorsal (from central England to northern Italy) and the emerging “Black Sea banana” connecting Budapest. to the Black Sea.

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Marlene Tavares, Head of Retail Investment and Logistics at JLL, explains: “The discussion about nearshoring (where operations move to a country close to the country of origin, as opposed to offshoring) is not new. Rising wages in places with low-cost production and increased risk from climate change, strikes and accidents such as the blockade of the Suez Canal have sparked controversy over the issue over the past decade.

However, a more favorable cost-risk ratio and the loss of many manufacturing infrastructures in Europe continued to give the Asian continent an advantage in hosting large distribution centers and manufacturing a wide range of products. This scenario is now changing due to the recent situation as well as new consumption habits. In this context, Portugal has a competitive advantage due to its very attractive geographic location and demographics, which place us prominently in the European Neighborhood Strategy,” he emphasizes.

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Economy

Emirates increases total number of huge Airbus A380 flights to London to no less than 9

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Emirates increases total number of huge Airbus A380 flights to London to no less than 9


Airbus A380 – Image: Emirates


Emirates announces this Monday, December 5th that it has stepped up its operations at Gatwick Airport, one of the terminals serving London, England, by adding a third daily flight on a large Airbus A380 double-decker aircraft.

The additional operation will offer more than 1,000 seats on the Dubai-Gatwick line every day of the week. Emirates flight EK11 departs Dubai at 02:50, flight EK15 at 07:40 and flight EK09 at 14:25.

In addition to the company’s services at Heathrow Airport, which has six A380s a day, the connection between Dubai and London now has an incredible 9 flights a day on the world’s largest passenger transport aircraft.

Emirates currently serves the UK with 119 weekly flights from seven hubs, including: London Heathrow Airport (A380) six times a day; three times a day to London Gatwick (A380); daily service to London Stansted (B777); three times a day to Manchester (A380); dual daily service to Birmingham (B777); daily flights to Newcastle (B777); and a daily service to Glasgow (B777).

According to Emirates






With a degree in mechanical engineering and postgraduate studies in aircraft maintenance, he has more than 6 years of experience in the field of technical control of aircraft maintenance.


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Socrates, Granadeiro and Bava demand compensation for bad faith litigation from Espírito Santo International

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José Socrates, Enrique Granadeiro and Zeynal Bava are demanding compensation for what is left of the assets of Espírito Santo International (ESI). The Central Civil Court of Lisbon, in which three defendants and five defendants, including Ricardo Salgado, are suspected of causing more than 72 million euros in damage to the GES universe.

Challenging this charge, in addition to a plea of ​​not guilty, the three are asking the court to sentence the insolvent property complex “to pay compensation for the recovery of all costs and restitution for all losses caused by this form of litigation,” the defense stressed. former Prime Minister of the Socialists.

The bankruptcy filing states that since at least 2007, the defendants have been paid “large sums” that turned out to be “illegal and unreasonable counterparties” in defense of the interests of GES, “namely, in the strategy laid out by Ricardo Salgado in defense of the interests of the group in PT ”, but also in the mission to “put an end to the participation of the PT group in the share capital of the operator VIVO” – Luxembourg masters Alain Rukavina and Paul Laplum, managers of insolvent property and authors The process said that this money was transferred “to the detriment of the assets” of ESI and the Group’s offshore companies HPS.

As for the administrators of insolvent property, Granadeiro and Bava were to be paid “for their work contrary to their professional duties and interests of the PT in their positions of authority”, and Socrates, as prime minister, would receive money from the government. Espírito Santo Group “to act in accordance with the strategies identified by Ricardo Salgado for PT to the detriment of the public interest.”

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