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Bolsonaro goes to the UN with calculated political risk – 18.09.2022 – World

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Bolsonaro goes to the UN with calculated political risk - 18.09.2022 - World

Jair Bolsonaro (Poland) travels to New York to open the 77th UN General Assembly on Tuesday (20). The tight schedule, two weeks before the election, and the fact that he was in second place in the polls, however, required the president’s team to weigh the political risk of the scenarios more carefully.

Ahead of the campaign event, the trip to the US will have caravans of supporters from American cities to greet the president this Monday (19) and for lunch again on Tuesday, after the UN address.

In the midst of an election dispute far from resolved, traveling abroad, mostly to two international destinations in a row – the president also traveled to London to attend the funeral of Queen Elizabeth II – was not a simple calculation.

However, the government estimated that the trip was mandatory and that the political cost of absence would be higher than the price of attendance, reinforcing the image of isolation in world political chess.

Not that presence guarantees integration into the global fabric. Bolsonaro has no scheduled bilateral meetings with any head of state significant to the Brazilian economy, and so far only confirmed meetings with Ecuadorian Presidents Guillermo Lasso; from Guatemala, Alejandro Giammattei; from Poland Andrzej Duda; and Aleksandar Vučić from Serbia, all from the global right. In addition, he is to meet with UN Secretary General António Guterres.

But the decision to travel to the US was made for a different reason than the one that brought him to London, according to the president’s allies, who wanted above all to photograph Bolsonaro next to the new King Charles III. According to the campaign, being in the UK is a big nod to the average voter in a pop topic like the British royal family, which is heavily covered by the media. The trip to New York is more aimed at opinion leaders and international leaders, as well as drawing attention to the news.

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With that in mind, Bolsonaro’s General Assembly speech should be laced with bows to the international community, while keeping in mind his electoral base in Brazil. The President should talk about the food crisis caused by the Ukrainian war and repeat that Brazil is the “breadbasket of the world” capable of guaranteeing global food security, not to mention, of course, the crisis in the country itself, where, according to a recent study, hunger worsened after the pandemic. and 33 million people have nothing to eat.

However, in the wake of the war, Bolsonaro must use Europe’s natural gas shortage crisis, which has led to an increase in coal burning, to criticize countries that have condemned his environmental policies, or lack of them. He has to confirm that Brazil has a clean energy matrix, in addition to using the hook to advance his campaign proposal to promote wind energy in the northeast.

Criticized by Western powers for not taking a stand against Russia, Bolsonaro also has to speak out about hosting Ukrainian refugees in Brazil.

A significant part of his speech should also be devoted to the economy, which serves both to attract investors and voters. Bolsonaro is expected to argue that Brazil has recovered better than other countries, highlighting higher-than-expected GDP growth and upbeat market forecasts.

As hard as Brazilian diplomacy tries to prepare a more focused Bolsonaro, the final text read by the president is locked in the Planalto Palace, and there are fears that he will also use the UN platform to criticize other countries with left-wing governments. In recent events, the President has insisted on criticizing not only the Nicaraguan dictatorship, but also the democratic neighbors of Chile and Argentina, hinting at their more radical base.

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If well received, the speech should be used in the campaign, especially in short social media videos. As in previous years, the president’s allies already expect the environment to be the target of political protests or environmentalists in New York.

Speaking at the UN for the fourth time, Bolsonaro, who arrived at the event in 2022, is different from previous ones. In 2019, with high hopes for his debut, the president delivered an aggressive and unusual speech to Brazilian leaders. In 2020, he recorded a speech shown remotely at the Assembly due to the pandemic and defended himself against criticism for the country’s lack of control of Covid.

In 2021, the trip was marked by the president’s refusal to get himself vaccinated against Covid-19 and doubts about rules preventing unvaccinated people from participating in indoor events. The UN allowed it, but New York did not, leading to images of Bolsonaro eating pizza on the sidewalk with ministers and in a tent set up outside a Brazilian steakhouse.

It was also Joe Biden’s first year in office and there was some tension between the two as the Brazilian openly supported the re-election of Donald Trump and repeated unfounded suspicions of fraud in the US elections. At that time, the two leaders did not meet.

In 2022, Bolsonaro travels to New York with a more peaceful relationship with Biden. They will meet for the first time in June during the Summit of the Americas, although Washington has sent messages that it should not embark on a coup d’état gamble if the Brazilian does not respect the election results.

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PSDB collapse: toucans may disappear from the political map

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The SDB is in crisis. Little remains of the party, founded in 1988 by social democrats Fernando Enrique Cardoso, Mario Covasa and Franco Montoro, among others, shortly after the fall of the dictatorship and which has remained at the center of the country’s political debate ever since, precisely because it prepared leaders to make changes. into a backwardness scenario.

This happened, for example, in 1994 when the toucans created the Real Plan and stabilized the economy. With less and less capacity for dialogue with society, the party today has become a Babylon where almost no one gets along. The result of this confusion, which began to emerge after the failure of the 2014 presidential campaign led by Esio Neves, became more pronounced on Sunday 2.

The party, which in its heyday even elected eight governors at once, as happened in 2010, this time did not elect a single one, despite the presence of toucans in the second round in four states (RS, MS, PB and PE), even if everyone would be in second place and with a small chance of being elected. The most significant defeat came to the government of São Paulo, the birthplace of the legend and where it was the dominant political force for nearly three decades. The biggest mistake here was made by advertisers who were unable to “sell” to the voters the important achievements of the administration of Joao Doria and Rodrigo Garcia.

KNOCK SHOT Esio Neves and Eduardo Leite (below) acted to reject the democratic process that saw Doria elected to run for president.
Wagner Pires

As a result of the mistakes of the national leadership of the association, especially President Bruno Araujo, who did everything not to put forward his own presidential candidate, excluding Doria from the dispute, Tucano’s bench elected to the next legislature of the Chamber is the smallest in history: only 13 federal deputies – 35 were elected in 2018 – and the party did not elect a single new senator beyond the six it already had. “The party is getting smaller,” admits an important PSDB source. Traditionally, the party had at least 50 federal deputies and rivaled in size the then giants MDB and PT. In the 2018 elections, as Geraldo Alcmín’s presidential campaign weakened, the number of parliamentarians in the House fell to 28. The electoral failure is in no way reminiscent of the party that opposed the PT in every presidential election from 1994 to 2014. This time he limited himself to the appointment of Senator Mara Gabrilli (PSDB-SP) as deputy to Simone Tebet (MDB-MS), who came third in the dispute with just over 4% of the vote.

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disagreements

Doria said the SRB’s poor performance in this year’s elections could lead to the disappearance of the party, which he says “would be a shame.” “At the moment it is the losing side,” he estimates. It is impossible to predict the outcome of the Toucan Nest crisis, but the party’s decline actually began in November 2021, after a group of MP Esio Neves (PSDB-MG) stepped up the process to undermine the former candidate’s pre-candidacy. Governor of São Paulo to the Planalto Palace, democratically determined in the party’s primaries.

The persistence of the Tucanato wing with the candidacy of the then governor of Rio Grande do Sul, Eduardo Leite, ultimately made it impossible for Doria to be nominated, a member of the party that proved more viable in the elections, even because of the important work done by his government during the pandemic. “I won the primaries and did not accept them because the national executive thought that with me there would be neither the preservation nor the increase of the federal bench of the Congress,” Doria recalled, intensifying the criticism of the national president Bruno Araujo. “I was practically forced to withdraw from the dispute, and in the end, the SRB elected far fewer deputies, with a reduction of 41%,” he told ISTOE.

With the failure of the elections on the 2nd, the internal split deepened. On Tuesday, the 4th, the National Executive in Brasilia decided to release its members in order to support whoever they wish in the second round of the presidential election. The five former party chairmen decided to support Lulu, but Governor Rodrigo Garcia announced “unconditional and personal” support for Jair Bolsonaro and Tarcisio de Freitas, the presidential candidate for governor of Sao Paulo, who now faces PT Fernando Haddad in the presidential election. second round of the competition. Doria said he would not vote. Subsequently, several Tucan leaders of the old guard announced their vote for Lulu, as was the case with Fernando Henrique. “In this second round, I vote for the history of the struggle for democracy and social integration. I vote for Luis Inacio Lulu da Silva,” said the former president. Currently, the project of reconstruction of the nest of toucans.

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At least 21 politicians who were already on the radar of Operation Lava-Yato are expected to remain on the political scene in 2023.

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Eleven goals of Lava-Yato receive a parliamentary mandate. (Photo: Antonio Cruz/Agência Brasil)

At least 21 politicians who were already on the radar of Operation Lava Jato should remain in the political arena in 2023. Twelve of them were elected last Sunday to legislative and executive positions – 11 won seats in the Chamber of Deputies, while Gladson Kameli (PP) won the race for Acre’s government. Another seven remained as deputies, while six were not elected.

Esio Neves (PSDB-MG), Afonso Hamm (PP-RS), Aguinaldo Ribeiro (PP-PB), Artur Lira (PP-AL) – Acting President of the Chamber, Beto Richa (PSDB-PR) will be in the Chamber in 2023. , Joao Leao (PP-BA), Lindbergh Farias (PT-RJ), Luis Fernando Faria (PSD-MG), Mario Negromonte Jr. (PP-BA), Rosana Sarny (MDB-MA) and Vander Lube (PT-MS) .

Kaka Leao (PP-BA) and Romero Huca (MDB-RR), who were running for Senate seats, were not counted; Eduardo Cunha (PTB-SP) and Delcidio Amaral (PTB-MS), federal candidates; and Fernando Collor (PTB-AL) and Luis Carlos Heinze (PP-RS), who sued state governments. Former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) runs in the second round of elections in Planalto.

On the other front, the executioners of these politicians had significant voices. Associated with União Brasil, former judge Sergio Moro, who led Lava Hato at first instance, was elected senator for Paraná with 1,953,188 votes, deposing Álvaro Díaz (Podemos).

“Phoenix”

Former federal prosecutor Deltan Dallagnol (Podemos) received 344,917 votes for a seat in the Chamber of Deputies. Former task force coordinator for Lava Jato in Curitiba, he has spoken to prominent political figures such as Glazi Hoffmann of the PT (elected with 261,247 votes), Ricardo Barros of the PP (107,022 votes) and Luisa Canziani of the PSD (74,643 votes). In an interview with Estadão on Monday, Dallagnol spoke of Lava Jato’s “rebirth” like a Phoenix.

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“The operation changed the course of the global political system and the system of competition in political disputes in Brazil,” says FGV professor Marco Antonio Carvalho Teixeira. However, for him, the election of so many candidates who passed investigations indicates that the political consequences of this “were left behind.”

recall

According to Professor UniRio and Doctor of Political Science Fabio Kerche, “There are sections of society that regard Moro and Dallagnol as heroes.” He links the election of the two to the “withdrawal” of the operation, which began in 2014.

Kerche sees similarities between the developments of Lava Jato and Mãos Limpas that took place in Italy. “It was also possible to elect the prosecutors and justices of the peace who took part. They left “judicial politics” and moved on to “party politics”.