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The beginning of the election campaign gives the market clues about the political scenario, experts say

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Sao Paulo, 16 August. The campaign period officially begins on Tuesday, and increased coverage of candidates at public events and in the media should boost polls, sharpening the lines of the picture that will be painted in the October election.

According to experts listened to by Mover, the market has not yet begun to bet on the possible outcome of the presidential race and remains in question who will win the dispute.

“Market prices point to a scenario in which Lula and Bolsonaro are tied,” said Pedro Paulo Silveira, director of asset management at Nova Futura Investimentos.

“The market has not been priced yet. It’s a little bit connected between Lula and Bolsonaro if we look at the prices of some assets, such as interest rates and the stock market outlook,” said Andre Perfeito, chief economist at Necton Investimentos.

Nexgen Capital partner Jose Cassiolato said the market sees “a tough and unpredictable election race ahead that makes it difficult to see the outcome. In addition, there is a lot of uncertainty about the economic policy that will be implemented from next year.”

According to some experts, even though former PT president and Palacio do Planalto candidate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is leading the main polls, public stock prices prove what the market still doesn’t see clearly. In fact, President Jair Bolsonaro will be defeated in the elections.

“Looking at Petrobras in particular, it’s obvious. We can use the same reasoning for percentages and exchange rates. If the campaign shows momentum in one direction, prices will move,” commented Silveira, who believes the market will move into a “very pessimistic” mode if Lula’s candidacy demonstrates a high probability of winning. “The proposals of both are well known, and what will make the prices change is the probability of each of them winning,” he concluded.

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Perfect, however, sees opportunities in the stock market, regardless of the polls. In general, he said, if Bolsonaro is re-elected, the shares of privatized state-owned companies tend to rise in price, and if Lula wins, companies related to the domestic sector, such as retail, construction and education, should do well.

According to Cassiolato, investors should now put emotions aside in order to analyze various companies and their opportunities, taking into account, in addition to elections, the current complex international scenario.

“Operating Advantage”

This week, a pre-election poll conducted by the FSB Institute commissioned by BTG Pactual and Ipec, ex-Ibope, showed Lula’s big advantage over Bolsonaro, even after the 600 reais augmented Auxílio Brasil began to circulate.

The FSB poll even showed that Lula managed to win more votes among the beneficiaries of the social program after the increase, while Bolsonaro, whose government was responsible for expanding aid, remained at the same level of voting intention.

In the FSB’s stimulated poll, Lula won 45% of the vote in the first round, compared to 41% in the previous round on 8 August. Bolsonaro retained 34% in both polls.

In the second round of the FSB poll, Lula increased his intention to vote from 51% to 53%, and Bolsonaro from 39% to 38%.

In the IPEC poll, Lula won 44% of the vote, while Bolsonaro gained 32% in the first round. In the runoff scenario, Lula scored 51% against the current president’s 35%, 16 percentage points behind.

According to political scientist Antonio Lavareda, with the start of the election campaign, Bolsonaro will try to close the distance with his rival, using two lines of communication.

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“First, by saving Lava-Yato’s complaints to save the 2018 ‘climate’. Secondly, using the religious and value agenda, to maximize its leadership in the evangelical environment and regain 70% of the segment. who voted for him in the second round of the last election. Bolsonaro is currently preferred by 49% of voters in this profile, according to a BTG/FSB poll.

Bolsonaro should also try to capitalize on expanding aid with the approval of the Proposed Constitutional Amendment, known as PEC benefits. “The presidential campaign is betting on that,” Lavareda said.

The political scientist also recalled that Bolsonaro has a big trump card in his hands: “the advantage of the incumbent president”, that is, challenging the election in office, “which gives him control over the agenda, the social machine and the ability to ‘seduce’ slices of the government, the electorate” with social benefits .

Lula, in turn, has the advantage of her government’s collective memory. A March poll by Lavareda-led Ipespe found that 58% of Brazilian voters rated both Lula governments as excellent or good.

election campaign

Despite the strong online presence of candidates since 2021 and the importance of social media in past elections, Lavareda reminds us of the relevance of free advertising on television and radio as of August 26, and of greater coverage of candidates from now on.

“The president himself, by opting for a major party and making efforts to include other parties in his coalition, has shown that he recognizes the power of television and radio,” the political scientist argued, also mindful of the importance of numerous reports that talk about Bolsonaro’s hospitalization after a knife wounded in the 2018 campaign. “No one was more in the news than him,” he added.

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Necton’s Perfect believes that the election campaign itself should not affect market sentiment, but it will interfere with the polls, which investors are eyeing more closely.

In addition, from now on, interviews and hearings of candidates will be intensified, and the market should react to their statements. In Bolsonaro’s case, investors are watching him clash with the Supreme Electoral Court and questions regarding electronic voting machines, reports Perfect.

Cassiolato added that the negative agendas of each candidate, as identified by their opponents, will be more pronounced at the start of the election campaign, which should also come at a price and introduce volatility into the market.

Text: Stephanie Rigamonti
Editing: Gabriela Guedes
Image: Vinicius Martins/Mover
Comments: [email protected]

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Politics

Political support for sports!

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Vila Nova deve estrear no Olímpico nesse Goianão 2022

In the 2022 elections, some sports-related names in Goiás tried to compete for a seat in the Legislative Assembly or in the National Congress, but did not succeed in the elections. Dante do Volei was not elected as a federal deputy, nor were Edson Automoveis, former councilor of Goiania, and Luis Bercuo, former president of the Goiás Basketball Federation, were not elected as state deputies. All of them have a list of relevant services provided to the Brazilian sport. They have earned a seat in Parliament.

Of the candidates strongly associated with sports, Daniel Vilela, who was elected lieutenant governor on the list of Ronaldo Cayado, succeeded. Daniel is a former professional soccer player. He has the right to represent the segment. Daniel Vilela is expected to have a strong focus on sports through the expansion of sports promotion programs in our state.

Goiás has interesting projects and sports support programs. Pro-Atleta is committed to serving high performance athletes; Construcindo Champions, a martial arts training program with about 7,900 students from Goiás; The Viva Mais Goias program targets seniors in 19 cities across the state.

The sports and parasports centers have been established by the State Department of Sports and Recreation (Seel) in cooperation with the municipalities of the hinterland. Also in partnership with the organizer of the championship of Spain, Seel implements the social project La Liga Goias with the distribution of sports materials in several municipalities of Goias.

Through Seel, the government promotes various sporting events and competitions. The Open Games of Goiás, the largest sports competition in the state, are designed for the participation of athletes from all the municipalities of Goiás in 21 uniforms. This year, the Quilombola Cup was created, which is held in six stages with the final in the city of Cavalcante.

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At the national level, the Senate approved Bill 940 of 2022, which extends until 2027 the tax benefits provided by the Sports Promotion Act (Act 11,438 of 2006). The rapporteur on this issue was the former player Romario, who was re-elected as a senator from the PL of Rio de Janeiro. In addition to extending the term, the Senate-approved rule increases the rates that companies and individuals can use in their annual income tax (IT) contributions and includes elementary, middle and high schools as fundraisers.

In the case of individual taxpayers, the new LIE increases from 6% to 7% of the IRPF due to the deduction limit as a donation or sponsorship for sports and parasports projects. This, together with contributions to funds for children and the elderly, to cultural projects and investments in audiovisual works.

In the case of companies, it increases the deduction limit for donations or sponsorships of sports and parasports projects from 1% to 2%. It also includes projects for social inclusion through sports, up to a collective limit of 4%, which is currently shared only between cultural projects and investments in audiovisual works.

I think laws and programs to encourage sports should go beyond sponsoring athletes and teams from different sports. They also need to contain strategies for social inclusion. Only in this way will the entire population benefit from physical and sporting activities, leading to a healthier life for all.

We hope that elected politicians will follow through on the promises made during the campaign and step up action in favor of sport. We want to see the plate!

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Portugal wants to give more voice to youth and promote women in politics |

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The Portuguese prime minister spoke to UN News about the opportunities and challenges in politics: internally, he is betting on the expectation of seeing a woman at the helm of government in the future, if the Portuguese choose to do so.

In foreign policy, Costa is in favor of expanding the exchange between young people from the Community of Portuguese-Speaking Countries, Corporal.

Reconstruct broke denomination

Antonio Costa was interviewed UN news at the end of September, when he participated in the debate of international leaders at the General Assembly.

Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa. Photo: UN//Mark Garten.

“Portugal is really proud. A week ago, the government was equal at the level of ministers. There was a small alteration in which parity was violated. In short, the prime ministers and presidents of the republic will be chosen by the Portuguese. I really hope that I will have a woman prime minister again. One already was. And who knows if there will be another one in the future. Let’s see.”

According to the government website, there are eight women in Costa’s current cabinet of 17 ministers. At the second level, there are 12 secretaries of state.

The only head of government in Portuguese history remained in office for about six months. María de Lourdes Pintasilgo was appointed by President Ramallo Eanes to the post and became the first and only woman to serve as prime minister. At that time, she was second in Western Europe after Margaret Thatcher, who came to power in 1979 and left in 1990.

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In the Assembly of the Portuguese Republic, out of 230 seats, 85 are held by women and 145 by men.

Crescent movement

António Costa also mentioned Portugal’s cooperation with the Community of Portuguese Speaking Countries, Cplp, and said that consolidating his position is one of the tasks that should remain a priority in the block of nine countries.

Flags of Portuguese speaking countries. Photo: cplp

“I see great opportunities to promote Cplp as an international political issue. I have noticed that there is a growing movement of countries wishing to become CPLP observers because they have realized that, unlike other international organizations, the CPLP must be geographically global. Almost every continent has a CPLP country. The fact that he has a great capacity for political articulation, and this is very beneficial. We supported each other in various international positions. This gives a very significant relative weight to the CPLP countries.”

Costa emphasized that the group of nations is connected not only by past relationships. Angola has been chairing the bloc since 2021.

“We must significantly improve economic relations. I think of many countries as examples of how relationships can be reinvented after such a long colonial period. By the way, longer than most others. So tough: we should not forget that for three years and at least on three fronts an absurd colonial war was waged, which ended only in 1974. So the ability is that we had the ability to reinvent ourselves in our relationships.”

Communication between young people

Costa also advocates for greater connection between young people from Member States who have a network and space to think about.

“Many European countries that I see see this relationship with Cplp as an interesting experience in overcoming and rethinking new relationships. And there is a big problem that we have: new generations. Fortunately, new generations have fewer memories, but also fewer connections with each other. We must create mechanisms to maintain these relations, and therefore I think that the mobility agreement is very important in order for these relations to continue to strengthen between our peoples.”

The purpose of the future mobility system is to establish short-stay, temporary and residence visas between Member States.

This year in New York there was no meeting of the leaders of the bloc, traditionally organized on the sidelines of the General Assembly.

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Politics

The 13th is not a political interest, the minister says

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The 13th is not a political interest, the minister says

Minister of Citizenship Ronaldo Bento denied that the 13th Auxílio Brasil promised by the President of the Republic for female heads of households will be implemented from 2023. Jair Bolsonaro, this Tuesday, have political aspirations. According to him, the limitation of the allowance for women is due to the fact that the female population is the majority in the financial support of beneficiary families, with a percentage of 80%. Bolsonaro is at an electoral disadvantage because of the women in the Planalto Palace dispute with the former president. Luis Inacio Lula da Silva (PT).

Bento argued that the innovation was backed up by technical analysis and that waiting for the end of the election period to announce the relief did not make sense, given that the starving population was in a hurry. However, Bolsonaro promises to pay on the 13th in 2023. “The political variable was never included in the Auxilio Brasil decision. We have identified dysfunctions in the program. during the election period? We are emerging from the pandemic and during the war. Those who are hungry and in need of social assistance cannot wait.”

As for funding the measure in the midst of a meager 2023 budget forecast that still doesn’t include a promise to keep Auxílio Brasil at R$600 a month, Bento hesitated. The minister only said that an increase in the allowance to 400 reais per month was not provided for in the draft budget for this year. “There was no forecast in Ploa, but we managed to do it in relation to public money. Instead of ending up in a money bag, they will go to the people of Brazil.”

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Regarding the payment on the 13th of Auxílio Brasil, Caixa President Daniella Marquez said that there is no difficulty for Caixa and that it will be made automatically from the moment the measure enters into force.

In addition to the 13th Auxílio Brasil, the government also announced on Monday an advance benefit payment for this month, with transfers that will end five days before the second round of elections (30), up from the 31st originally.

The measures were announced after a tough result in the first round of the presidential election, in which Bolsonaro was closer to former President Lula than polls indicated. Lula had 48.43% of the vote against 43.20% for the incumbent. Now the Planalto chief is waving to audiences he is at a disadvantage to PT, such as the lower classes and women, in an attempt to change the outcome of the second stage of the argument.

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