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The beginning of the election campaign gives the market clues about the political scenario, experts say



Sao Paulo, 16 August. The campaign period officially begins on Tuesday, and increased coverage of candidates at public events and in the media should boost polls, sharpening the lines of the picture that will be painted in the October election.

According to experts listened to by Mover, the market has not yet begun to bet on the possible outcome of the presidential race and remains in question who will win the dispute.

“Market prices point to a scenario in which Lula and Bolsonaro are tied,” said Pedro Paulo Silveira, director of asset management at Nova Futura Investimentos.

“The market has not been priced yet. It’s a little bit connected between Lula and Bolsonaro if we look at the prices of some assets, such as interest rates and the stock market outlook,” said Andre Perfeito, chief economist at Necton Investimentos.

Nexgen Capital partner Jose Cassiolato said the market sees “a tough and unpredictable election race ahead that makes it difficult to see the outcome. In addition, there is a lot of uncertainty about the economic policy that will be implemented from next year.”

According to some experts, even though former PT president and Palacio do Planalto candidate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is leading the main polls, public stock prices prove what the market still doesn’t see clearly. In fact, President Jair Bolsonaro will be defeated in the elections.

“Looking at Petrobras in particular, it’s obvious. We can use the same reasoning for percentages and exchange rates. If the campaign shows momentum in one direction, prices will move,” commented Silveira, who believes the market will move into a “very pessimistic” mode if Lula’s candidacy demonstrates a high probability of winning. “The proposals of both are well known, and what will make the prices change is the probability of each of them winning,” he concluded.

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Perfect, however, sees opportunities in the stock market, regardless of the polls. In general, he said, if Bolsonaro is re-elected, the shares of privatized state-owned companies tend to rise in price, and if Lula wins, companies related to the domestic sector, such as retail, construction and education, should do well.

According to Cassiolato, investors should now put emotions aside in order to analyze various companies and their opportunities, taking into account, in addition to elections, the current complex international scenario.

“Operating Advantage”

This week, a pre-election poll conducted by the FSB Institute commissioned by BTG Pactual and Ipec, ex-Ibope, showed Lula’s big advantage over Bolsonaro, even after the 600 reais augmented Auxílio Brasil began to circulate.

The FSB poll even showed that Lula managed to win more votes among the beneficiaries of the social program after the increase, while Bolsonaro, whose government was responsible for expanding aid, remained at the same level of voting intention.

In the FSB’s stimulated poll, Lula won 45% of the vote in the first round, compared to 41% in the previous round on 8 August. Bolsonaro retained 34% in both polls.

In the second round of the FSB poll, Lula increased his intention to vote from 51% to 53%, and Bolsonaro from 39% to 38%.

In the IPEC poll, Lula won 44% of the vote, while Bolsonaro gained 32% in the first round. In the runoff scenario, Lula scored 51% against the current president’s 35%, 16 percentage points behind.

According to political scientist Antonio Lavareda, with the start of the election campaign, Bolsonaro will try to close the distance with his rival, using two lines of communication.

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“First, by saving Lava-Yato’s complaints to save the 2018 ‘climate’. Secondly, using the religious and value agenda, to maximize its leadership in the evangelical environment and regain 70% of the segment. who voted for him in the second round of the last election. Bolsonaro is currently preferred by 49% of voters in this profile, according to a BTG/FSB poll.

Bolsonaro should also try to capitalize on expanding aid with the approval of the Proposed Constitutional Amendment, known as PEC benefits. “The presidential campaign is betting on that,” Lavareda said.

The political scientist also recalled that Bolsonaro has a big trump card in his hands: “the advantage of the incumbent president”, that is, challenging the election in office, “which gives him control over the agenda, the social machine and the ability to ‘seduce’ slices of the government, the electorate” with social benefits .

Lula, in turn, has the advantage of her government’s collective memory. A March poll by Lavareda-led Ipespe found that 58% of Brazilian voters rated both Lula governments as excellent or good.

election campaign

Despite the strong online presence of candidates since 2021 and the importance of social media in past elections, Lavareda reminds us of the relevance of free advertising on television and radio as of August 26, and of greater coverage of candidates from now on.

“The president himself, by opting for a major party and making efforts to include other parties in his coalition, has shown that he recognizes the power of television and radio,” the political scientist argued, also mindful of the importance of numerous reports that talk about Bolsonaro’s hospitalization after a knife wounded in the 2018 campaign. “No one was more in the news than him,” he added.

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Necton’s Perfect believes that the election campaign itself should not affect market sentiment, but it will interfere with the polls, which investors are eyeing more closely.

In addition, from now on, interviews and hearings of candidates will be intensified, and the market should react to their statements. In Bolsonaro’s case, investors are watching him clash with the Supreme Electoral Court and questions regarding electronic voting machines, reports Perfect.

Cassiolato added that the negative agendas of each candidate, as identified by their opponents, will be more pronounced at the start of the election campaign, which should also come at a price and introduce volatility into the market.

Text: Stephanie Rigamonti
Editing: Gabriela Guedes
Image: Vinicius Martins/Mover
Comments: [email protected]

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The dollar continues to reflect the political scenario



The dollar continues to reflect the political scenario

Yesterday, financial agents evaluated the opposite decision of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) regarding the so-called secret budget. In addition, a decision was made by STF Minister Gilmar Méndez to issue an injunction that would exclude the Bolsa Família from the spending cap rule, with investors trying to understand how this measure would affect the processing of the transitional PEC in the Chamber of Deputies. Oh this PEC!!!!

Since he is an exchange investor, any reading that the budget will be exceeded or become more flexible will negatively affect the exchange market, whether through the PEC or in any other way. We will continue with volatility today.

Looking beyond, the US Central Bank (Fed), although slowing down the pace of monetary tightening at its December meeting, issued a tougher-than-expected statement warning that its fight against inflation was not yet over, raising fears that rising US interest rates will push the world’s largest economy into recession.

The currency market continues to react to political news. The voting on the PEC is saved for today. It is expected that it will indeed be reviewed to open the way tomorrow for discussions on the 2023 budget.

Yesterday, the spot price closed the selling day at R$5.3103.

For today on the calendar we will have an index of consumer confidence in the eurozone. Good luck and good luck in business!!

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Andrés Sánchez consults with the Ministry of Sports, but refuses a political post.



The former president of the Corinthians dreams of working for the CBF as a national team coordinator. He was consulted shortly after Lula’s election.

Former Corinthians president Andrés Sánchez was advised to take a position in the Ministry of Sports under the administration of Lula (PT). However, he ruled out a return to politics. dreams of taking over the coordination of CBF selectionHow do you know PURPOSE.

No formal invitation was made to the former Corinthian representative, only a consultation on a portfolio opportunity with the new federal government, which will be sworn in on January 1, 2023.

Andrés was the Federal MP for São Paulo from 2015 to 2019. At that time he was elected by the Workers’ Party. However, the football manager begs to stay in the sport, ruling out the possibility of getting involved in politics again.

Andrés Sanchez’s desire is to fill the position of CBF tackle coordinator, which should become vacant after the 2022 World Cup. Juninho Paulista fulfills this function in Brazil’s top football institution.

The former president of Corinthians was in Qatar to follow the World Cup along with other figures in Brazilian football. During his time in the country, he strengthened his ties with the top leadership of the CBF.

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The EU has reached a political agreement on limiting gas prices – 19.12.2022



Germany sentenced Russian to life imprisonment for political murder by order of Moscow - 12/15/2021
BRUSSELS, DECEMBER 19 (ANSA). European Union countries reached a political agreement on Monday (19) to impose a natural gas price ceiling of 180 euros per megawatt hour (MWh). The main sources of income for Russia and the minimization of the use of energy as a weapon by the regime of Vladimir Putin.

The agreement was approved by a supermajority at a ministerial meeting of member states in Brussels, Belgium, after months of discussions about the best way to contain the rise in natural gas prices in the bloc caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. .

The value set by the countries is well below the proposal made by the European Commission, the EU’s executive body, in November: 275 EUR/MWh. However, the countries leading the cap campaign were in favor of an even lower limit, around 100 EUR/MWh.

Germany, always wary of price controls, voted in favor of 180 euros, while Austria and the Netherlands, also skeptical of the cap, abstained. Hungary, the most pro-Russian country in the EU, voted against.

The instrument will enter into force on 15 February, but only if natural gas prices on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange exceed 180 euros/MWh for three consecutive days. In addition, the difference compared to a number of global benchmarks should be more than 35 euros.

Italy, the EU’s biggest supporter of the ceiling, has claimed responsibility for the measure. “This is a victory for Italy, which believed and worked for us to reach this agreement,” Environment and Energy Minister Gilberto Picetto tweeted.

“This is a victory for Italian and European citizens who demand energy security,” he added.

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Currently, the gas price in Amsterdam is around 110 EUR/MWh, which is already a reflection of the agreement in Brussels – in August the figure even broke the barrier of 340 EUR/MWh.

However, Russia has already threatened to stop exports to countries that adhere to the ceiling. (ANSA).

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